Week 13 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

If the Thanksgiving Day NFL games were any indication, Week 13 is one to avoid.

A pair of favorites, Detroit and Seattle, took home gaudy victories, while the favorite most probably should have felt comfortable with, Dallas, took a dive in a major way against a Philadelphia team with a backup quarterback under center.

By this point in the week, the spreads have been altered by the house and bettors throwing coin down. Those who still want to get in on the action need to step lightly in a minefield of games and use smart over/under plays to cover potential losses.

Below is the full list with a pair of matchups to avoid.

NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Cleveland at Buffalo	BUF -3 (42)	Browns	U	Josh Gordon's breakout game will down the Bills.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh	PIT -4.5 (54)	Steelers	U	Pittsburgh is erratic, but New Orleans cannot win on the road or at home right now.
San Diego at Baltimore	BAL -6 (46)	Ravens	U	Baltimore is lucky this one comes at home, where it can ride Justin Forsett to victory.
Carolina at Minnesota	MIN -3 (43)	Vikings	O	Minnesota has a solid defense and can hurt the reeling Carolina defense.
NY Giants at Jacksonville	NYG -3 (45)	Giants	U	See analysis below.
Washington at Indianapolis	IND -10 (51)	Colts	O	Andrew Luck vs. anyone Washington trots out is bound to get ugly.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay	CIN -4 (44.5)	Bengals	O	Make it three in a row on the road for the Bengals as a stable of backs runs wild.
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -7 (44.5)	Texans	U	So long as Arian Foster is in the lineup, Houston will run away with this one.
Oakland at St. Louis	STL -7 (42.5)	Raiders	U	See analysis below.
Arizona at Atlanta	EVEN (44.5)	Cardinals	U	Arizona will get back on track thanks to a matchup with a downtrodden Atlanta defense.
New England at Green Bay	GB -3 (58.5)	Patriots	O	New England and LeGarrette Blount can take advantage of a horrific rush defense to pull out a road win.
Denver at Kansas City	DEN -1.5 (49.5)	Chiefs	O	Peyton Manning will struggle on the road to keep up with Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis.
Miami at NY Jets	MIA -7 (42)	Dolphins	U	An elite Miami pass defense is set to have a field day against the circus that is the Jets.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 7 a.m. ET on Nov. 29.

Top Lines to Avoid

New York Giants (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Over/Under: 45

A note by Tom Rock of Newsday says it all in regard to this matchup:

Just because a game will end fast does not mean it is a strong betting environment, folks. 

Eli Manning and the New York Giants are out of contention at 3-8. The team put on what was probably its last great effort last week in a 31-28 loss to Dallas.

Manning's play has careened off a cliff over the course of his past three outings, with seven interceptions in the span making him fully look like the man who led the league in interceptions last season. That said, a miserable Jacksonville Jaguars defense can certainly make him look good. The inverse is also true, though, as the Giants are not set to put on a defensive showcase by any means, either:

The 1-10 Jaguars are still led by rookie quarterback Blake Bortles, who gives Manning a serious run for his money in the turnover department. The former UCF star has eight touchdowns to 15 interceptions on the year.

Perhaps the only real reason to tune in to this game is for a showcase of what is to come. Rookie wideouts are set to run wild on bad defenses, as Jacksonville's Allen Hurns (488 yards, five scores) squares off with New York's Odell Beckham (609 yards five scores).

Other than that, this is one to avoid at all costs. The final outcome could swing either way on one big play, and the over/under could go low because of turnovers or high because of inept defenses. When in doubt, take the veteran quarterback, but not by much.

Prediction: Giants 20, Jaguars 17

Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams (-7), Over/Under: 42.5

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Just like that, nobody trusts the Oakland Raiders. 

One week removed from ruining Thursday for a lot of bettors thanks to a four-point upset of Kansas City, the one-win Raiders are already hefty underdogs against the scrappy St. Louis Rams.

It makes sense in a way. St. Louis has been the upset specialist this season, with wins over Seattle, San Francisco and Denver. Oakland's Latavius Murray, who rushed for 112 yards and two scores in last week's upset, will miss the game too. Comcast SportsNet provides the details:

Things are not exactly bright right now for the Rams, though. Coach Jeff Fisher now has Shaun Hill as the starter, and he gave the team 198 yards with a touchdown and a pair of picks in last week's loss to San Diego.

The decision has yet to provide the Rams with any consistency, as the team has still not put together a winning streak this season.

"We've got a great locker room, and a great group of guys who have every right to be disappointed," said coach Jeff Fisher, per STATS LLC, via ESPN.com. "They'll come back."

Michael Zito/Associated Press

Oakland's 11th-ranked pass defense figures to give Hill more problems than resolutions, at home or not. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr (2,249 yards, 14 touchdowns, nine interceptions) will be asked to do more than ever with Murray out of the lineup, although the task comes against a shaky all-around defense.

Given the quarterback and defensive matchups, a seven-point spread does not seem to make much sense here. The home team will likely pull through as long as it does not once again play down to the competition, but this does not exactly birth an encouraging betting environment.

Prediction: Rams 17, Raiders 14

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).