NFL Week 13 Picks: Rounding Up Top Experts' Predictions

Predicting NFL games this season isn't rocket science. Rocket science is far more predictable. 

After all, this is the league that saw the then-0-10 Oakland Raiders kick off the week by beating the then-7-3 Kansas City Chiefs—a result that just one of Bleacher Report's 16 NFL experts saw coming. 

But a new week means a new slate of games. With Thursday's Thanksgiving action acting as a mere appetizer to Sunday's and Monday's slates of games, the experts at Bleacher Report have once again rolled out a full list of projections for the week. 

Here's a look at how Bleacher Report's six NFL lead writers see the games playing out:

Matchup	Matt Bowen	Mike Freeman	Matt Miller	Ty Schalter	Michael Schottey	Mike Tanier
WAS at IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND
TEN at HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU
CLE at BUF	BUF	CLE	CLE	BUF	CLE	BUF
SD at BAL	SD	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL
NYG at JAX	NYG	NYG	NYG	JAX	NYG	NYG
CIN at TB	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN
OAK at STL	STL	STL	STL	STL	STL	STL
NO at PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	NO	PIT	PIT
CAR at MIN	CAR	MIN	MIN	CAR	CAR	MIN
ARI at ATL	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI
NE at GB	GB	GB	NE	GB	GB	NE
DEN at KC	DEN	DEN	DEN	KC	DEN	DEN
MIA at NYJ	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA

Note: You can view the selections from all 16 of B/R's NFL experts here.

Top Games

Cleveland Browns (7-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-5)

Leon Halip/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills and the Cleveland Browns enter their Week 13 matchup still battling for a wild-card spot. Just like we all expected. 

Outside of those playoff ramifications, there are storylines aplenty. 

First, there's Sammy Watkins. The Bills' first-round selection wouldn't be in Buffalo if it weren't for a trade with the Browns that put the team in position to acquire the explosive rookie. As it turns out, there's been a correlation this season between his performance and the team's.

As pointed out by Dan Hope of Bleacher Report:

And if that weren't enough, there's been a fair amount of talk between these two teams to hype the matchup. Current Browns (and former Bills) safety Donte Whitner started the talk back in July when he tweeted about the team potentially moving from Buffalo. 

Buffalo Bills running back Fred Jackson made it known the comments didn't sit well with the Buffalo faithful.

"If you talk down to anybody, you can't be respected. That's just me, that's how I feel about it," Jackson said, via Mike Rodak of ESPN.com. "For him to say stuff about that, about people that we love in this organization, he'll never get my respect for that."

But Whitner won't be the only one returning to Buffalo. Browns head coach Mike Pettine will return after serving as the defensive coordinator for the Bills last season. 

Unfortunately for the Browns, Pettine left his stingy defense back in Buffalo. Though both teams have turned things around this season, the Bills are doing it on defense, while the Browns are getting it done on offense. 

In a matchup of close teams, the one with the more dominant defense at home is the one to take. 

Prediction: Bills 20, Browns 17

New England Patriots (9-2) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)

Steven Senne/Associated Press

If you're looking for Week 13's best matchup, look no further. 

Unless you really believe the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals are the best team in the NFC, this is a matchup of the top teams the AFC and the NFC have to offer right now. The Patriots and the Packers rank No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA metric.

Zach Kruse of Bleacher Report adds some context to just how hot these two teams have been:

Despite the dead-even matchup, the Packers have been given the edge by Vegas. Green Bay is the four-point favorite, per Odds Shark. Our experts favor the green and yellow in this one by a 4-2 margin. 

So, what's the difference?

Well, the game taking place at Lambeau might have something to do with it. So might the explosiveness of the Packers offense. As Ben Volin of The Boston Globe points out, the Packers have done a great job of keeping up with the Patriots in terms of scoring, despite far fewer plays:

ESPN Stats & Info also highlighted the Packers' ability to start hot in front of their home crowd:

The real key to this game will be Eddie Lacy. The wrecking ball of a running back is coming off his highest rushing total of the season with 125 yards against the Vikings. If this Patriots team does have a weakness, it's stopping the run.

New England is just 17th in run defense, according to the DVOA rankings. That could set the stage for yet another strong performance for Lacy as the Packers look to gain ground on the Cardinals for the top seed in the NFC.

Prediction: Packers 35, Patriots 31 

Denver Broncos (8-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

One thing is clear about the Denver Broncos this season: They aren't the juggernauts they were in 2013. A look at their record this season reveals a fairly blatant weakness they'll look to fix before the playoffs. 

They are mortal on the road. 

Yes, Peyton Manning and Co. have picked up two road wins on the season, but those were against the lowly Oakland Raiders and the New York Jets. Losses to the New England Patriots, the Seattle Seahawks and the St. Louis Rams illustrate the larger problem. 

Manning himself acknowledged that picking up a win at Arrowhead will come with plenty of challenges—specifically, communication and red-zone scoring, via Nicki Jhabvala of The Denver Post:  

"

The communication is the challenge, all 11 guys hearing the call, hearing the possible audible, knowing exactly what to do, not nine guys doing one thing, two guys doing another. ... You need to protect the ball, certainly, like in any game, but especially on the road and try to be good in the red zone, try to really fight like crazy there. (The Chiefs) are really good in the red zone, so that's going to be a real challenge.

"

Winning on the road against a quality opponent would have huge AFC West ramifications too. A victory would give the Broncos a two-game lead over the Chiefs in the division race. A loss would obviously leave the teams tied. 

For all the struggles the Broncos have had on the road, the Chiefs have proved to be a strong home team in 2014. Since losing its home opener to the Titans, Kansas City has reeled off four straight wins at home. 

Of course, this is also the same team that gave the Oakland Raiders their first win of the season in Week 12. 

Peyton Manning has yet to lose to Kansas City in his reign as the Denver Broncos starting quarterback. Winning at Arrowhead will be difficult, but the Chiefs defense (18th in the league, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA) is too middling to beat these Broncos right now. 

Prediction: Broncos 28, Chiefs 24