Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 13: Choosing Top Fantasy Football Locks and Flops

With three Thursday games instead of one, it's likely that a ton of lineup decisions have already been made. The likes of Joique Bell, Anquan Boldin and Matthew Stafford came up infinitely more often in questions than guys playing in Sunday games, in large part because some like to set their lineup before, you know, actually hanging with their family.

As for the rest of you [daps]. My people. The ones who know the true meaning of the holiday season isn't giving to the family but how how many times the Broncos will give the ball to C.J. Anderson. Or the amount of times Eli Manning will say "aww shucks" after another one of his passes finds an opponent.

These questions are the important ones. Or at least they're more answerable than when your grandparents ask why you're still single or when your conservative uncle asks you to weigh in on his argument with a liberal relative or, really, any damn thing that happens at a Thanksgiving dinner table.

As my Black Friday gift to you all, suffering no-good-answer-having folks, I bequeath advice on whom to start and sit this week. For free! On the Internet! (Note: It's free every week.)

Quarterback: Start Ryan Tannehill Over Philip Rivers

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

A majority of the quarterbacks who I would have advised Tannehill starting over have already played. Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick were all behind the Dolphins signal-caller on my weekly ranks, a decision that was successful to varying degrees.

So we're left touting Tannehill, my No. 12 quarterback for the week, over Rivers, who comes in one spot later. The Dolphins face the Jets on Monday while the Chargers take on the Ravens, a separation in matchups that's much smaller than you may think. Rex Ryan's struggles with his depleted secondary have been well-covered, but Baltimore is 29th in passing yards allowed and 18th in pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders.

This essentially comes down to a comparison of Rivers and Tannehill, the result of which may be surprising. Tannehill is currently the eighth-best fantasy quarterback coming into this week, scoring eight more points than the 10th-place Rivers, per ESPN.com. Over the last four weeks, though, the numbers have swung heavily in Tannehill's favor. The third-year quarterback has 79 fantasy points in that timeframe, against just 40 for Rivers.

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

The biggest factor swinging the pendulum in Tannehill's direction are his legs. He's already set a career high in rushing yards with 276, putting him behind only Russell Wilson, Kaepernick and Cam Newton. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has done an excellent job of taking advantage of Tannehill's strengths, keeping passes underneath and freezing defenses with consistent play action.

The result has been very big plays but a heaping pile of middle-sized ones. Tannehill is averaging a pedestrian 6.64 yards per attempt but has completed at least 20 passes in all but two games this season and is connecting on nearly two-thirds of those passes. His weekly stat lines have become almost eerily predictable: 220-280 passing yards and 25-50 rushing on a handful of carries.

Touchdowns are the only thing that vary wildly from week to week. With the Jets giving them up by the bucketful, Tannehill should be a fine start this week.

Running Back: Start Denard Robinson Over Giovani Bernard

Matt Dunham/Associated Press

I'm sticking with a player who's had one bad week over one who's had a whole lot of them. Robinson gained 25 yards on his 14 carries in last week's loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the first time in his five starts he'd averaged less than four yards per carry. The former Michigan star somewhat made up for his lack of ground production with his four receptions and 47 yards but fumbled once and was generally not very good.

For Bernard, the 2014 season has been a whole lot of not very good. The second-year back is below the running back Mendoza Line in six of his eight appearances, not even averaging three yards per clip in any of his last three contest. Like Robinson, Bernard has the ability to help catch the ball out of the backfield. The Bengals just haven't taken advantage, with 11 of his 24 receptions coming in the first two weeks.

Bernard's lack of production wouldn't be so bad if Cincinnati didn't have a running back who has been wildly productive. They do. Jeremy Hill began seeing a workload increase when Bernard went out of the lineup due to injury four weeks ago. He's gone on an absolute tear since, to the point it seems silly that he and Bernard are still splitting the workload.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Last week Bernard received 49 offensive snaps against 32 for Hill. Bernard accounted for 67 yards on his snaps. Hill had 96 on his. It's hard to tell how the Bengals will game-plan this week, but Bernard's days as a starter are numbered if he keeps this up.

Robinson is also part of a semi-timeshare, if only because Jacksonville has this propensity for ruining anything good that happens. Any time Toby Gerhart touches the field you might as well just mark a two-yard gain inside tackle on the box score. Any time Jordan Todman is on the field, you might as well drop 11 players into coverage—it's going to be a pass.

Robinson has been the closest thing the Jaguars have had to a breakout star this season. Jacksonville plays the Giants' terrible run defense Sunday. If anything in this world makes sense, Robinson will have a bounce-back day.

Start: Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin Over Sammy Watkins

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Nearly everyone bought into the Sammy Watkins hype during the preseason. Watkins was an amazing college player at Clemson and looked the part in his sporadic August appearances. When his season started off slowly, many were able to write it off as EJ Manuel missing a wide-open Watkins—and in many cases they were right.

Kyle Orton's entry into the starting lineup led to three excellent games for Watkins in four weeks and it appeared he was breaking out. WHOOPS. Since his 157-yard outing against Buffalo, Watkins has 94 receiving yards. There is no outlier bad performance, either. He's had no more than 35 yards, no less than 27. Orton has been far from a savior, but we should probably downgrade Watkins to a very low-end WR2 the rest of the way.

The same cannot be said for Kelvin Benjamin or Mike Evans, both becoming glimmering rays of light in their teams' dreary seasons. Evans has become a big-play machine and is slowly supplanting Vincent Jackson as Tampa Bay's top target. The former Texas A&M star has scored touchdowns in six of his last seven games, eight scores overall. A three-game stretch to start the month saw Evans average 152.6 yards and score five touchdowns. Another similar hot streak and Evans may challenge the rookie receiving record.

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Benjamin won't challenge any records. The Panthers passing offense isn't as prolific, nor has he been as consistent of a target as Evans. Benjamin will, however, continue to catch highlight-worthy touchdowns. While not quite of the Odell Beckham Jr. caliber, it seems every week that Cam Newton gets pressured and throws an "Oh, what the hell, we're terrible anyway" pass that Benjamin somehow steals from a waiting defender.

Scouts who said Benjamin lacks polish are still mostly correct, but he's a physical freak and all the Panthers have over the top. Seven out of 11 games with a touchdown reception sure isn't bad for a guy some thought would flame out of the league.

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