NFL Week 13 Picks: Final Predictions and Over-Under Odds Before Thursday Night

Not every meaningful NFL game is created equal.

Nobody wants the Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers matchup to matter, but it does, as no NFC South team brandishes more than four victories. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could land the No. 1 draft pick, or they could host a playoff game at 6-10.

A few more particularly enticing games meet the bill of essential late-season viewing. The Green Bay Packers host the New England Patriots in a heavyweight showdown that has the potential to resurface in February. The Kansas City Chiefs could make the AFC West interesting by knocking off the Denver Broncos.

Before getting to those Sunday slates, the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers will each fight to kick the other out of the NFC playoff picture on Thanksgiving. At 7-5, the loser will face an uphill battle to secure a postseason bid.

Not only do the pedigrees vary across the board, but so will the Week 13 scores. While the Seahawks and the 49ers prepare for a defensive war of attrition, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger are sharpening their weapons for an offensive duel at Heinz Field.

Let's take a look at what that means for bettors gambling on the week's over-under lines, courtesy of Odds Shark as of Wednesday night.

Date	Away	Home	Line*	Pick
Thur., 11/27	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	47	Under
Thur., 11/27	Philadelphia Eagles	Dallas Cowboys	54.5	Over
Thur., 11/27	Seattle Seahawks	San Francisco 49ers	39.5	Under
Sun., 11/30	San Diego Chargers	Baltimore Ravens	46	Over
Sun., 11/30	Cleveland Browns	Buffalo Bills	41	Over
Sun., 11/30	Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans	43	Under
Sun., 11/30	Washington Redskins	Indianapolis Colts	51	Under
Sun., 11/30	New York Giants	Jacksonville Jaguars	44.5	Under
Sun., 11/30	Carolina Panthers	Minnesota Vikings	43.5	Under
Sun., 11/30	New Orleans Saints	Pittsburgh Steelers	54	Over
Sun., 11/30	Oakland Raiders	St. Louis Rams	42	Over
Sun., 11/30	Cincinnati Bengals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	44.5	Under
Sun., 11/30	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	44.5	Under
Sun., 11/30	New England Patriots	Green Bay Packers	58	Over
Sun., 11/30	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	49.5	Over
Mon., 12/1	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	41.5	Under

Top Selections

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (Under)

No teams allow fewer total yards than the Seahawks and the 49ers, who rank No. 1 and No. 2 in total defense, respectively. When these two NFC West rivals fight Thursday night, nobody should expect a heavy portion of points.

These bitter foes tend to keep scoring to a minimum against each other. In their three meetings last year—including the NFC Championship Game—they combined to produce 36 points per game, veering no higher than 40. 

The 49ers have averaged 17.4 points per game over their past five bouts, needing overtime to put up 27 on the New Orleans Saints' No. 27 defense. Seattle has displayed a tad more offensive firepower, scoring 25.4 points per game behind the league's premier rushing attack.

Russell Wilson is a huge part of that, utilizing his athleticism to compile 644 rushing yards. San Francisco defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is well aware of his scrambling prowess, making a lofty comparison to ESPN's Britt McHenry:

On the road, however, Seattle's point production deflates to 21.4 per contest. Adjust that number to account for facing the NFL's No. 7 rushing defense, and 20 is probably a friendly projection, especially since they could hit 17 and still escape with a win.

Expect a close game residing in the teens, safely below the current line.

New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Over)

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Bored by defense? Watch the Saints vs. Steelers game.

This contest is on track to approach the over-under mark. Each side averages an identical 26.2 points per game, and while that falls just shy of 53.5, neither defense is good enough to force a tie through a scoreless overtime.

In five road games, the Saints relinquished an average of 30.6 points. None of those opponents boasts a better offense than the Steelers, who place No. 5 on the chart with 406.4 total yards per game. 

During the Saints' three-game losing streak at the Superdome, they allowed 545 total rushing yards, most recently gashed for 182 by Justin Forsett. ESPN.com's Mike Triplett didn't hold back his disgust:

That puts Le'Veon Bell, the NFL's second-leading rusher behind DeMarco Murray, on a paved path for a monster performance. Fresh off a 204-yard outing against the Tennessee Titans, Bell is also a major pass-catching threat with 57 receptions.

On the other end, Pittsburgh just allowed 20 points to the New York Jets and 24 to the Titans. Drew Brees is a bit better than Michael Vick and Zach Mettenberger. The Saints trail the top-ranked Indianapolis Colts offense by just two total yards.

New Orleans' 34-27 loss to the Baltimore Ravens is a strong benchmark for this game. The winner will have to formulate at least 30 points, and the loser will hit the high 20s.

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings (Under)

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The scheduling lords pleaded with the Panthers to regain their offensive rhythm, handing them three matchups against bottom-10 defenses. They responded with 48 points, needing two garbage-time touchdowns to put some makeup on a 45-21 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

They've encountered just three matchups against defenses situated among the top half of the league. Cam Newton's floundering offense exited that trio of tussles with 26 total points.

Believe it or not, Minnesota touts the No. 12 offense. The Panthers would have to defy the odds to score just 20 points or even 14.

Let's give them 16, which is slightly optimistic. That forces Minnesota to reach 28, a mark it has exceeded three times in 11 tries. Averaging 18.4 points per game with the No. 30 offense, it would need a slew of defensive touchdowns and short fields to send the combined point tally to 44 or higher.

Neither the Panthers nor the Vikings possess a particularly good offense, so take the under in this week's best bet.