Week 13 Fantasy Football Projections: Stat Predictions for Top 100 Players

Week 13 in the fantasy football world is going to be a chaotic one. 

Not only are we past the bye week stage of the season, but nearly one-fifth of the week's schedule takes place on Thursday as a part of the Thanksgiving schedule.

That means that sometime in between cooking that 22-pound turkey, fixing the cranberry sauce and finding a way to avoid crazy Aunt Susan, you're going to have a lot of lineup decisions to make—and many of them will have to be made soon.

Oh, and for many, the playoffs are going to be on the line.

Leave the turkey prep for someone else. It's time to get ready for Week 13.

Thursday, Nov. 27	Time (ET)
Sunday, Nov. 30	Time (ET)
Monday, Dec. 1	Time (ET)
Chicago at Detroit	12:30 p.m.
Philadelphia at Dallas	4:30 p.m.
Seattle at San Francisco	8:30 p.m.
Washington at Indianapolis	1 p.m.
Tennessee at Houston	1 p.m.
Cleveland at Buffalo	1 p.m.
San Diego at Baltimore	1 p.m.
NY Giants at Jacksonville	1 p.m.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay	1 p.m.
Oakland at St. Louis	1 p.m.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh	1 p.m.
Carolina at Minnesota	1 p.m.
Arizona at Atlanta	4:05 p.m.
New England at Green Bay	4:25 p.m.
Denver at Kansas City	8:30 p.m.
Miami at NY Jets	8:30 p.m.

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Andrew Luck, IND	375 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	415 PAS, 4 TD
3	Peyton Manning, DEN	275 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
4	Drew Brees, NO	350 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
5	Tony Romo, DAL	255 PAS, 3 TD
6	Tom Brady, NE	360 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
7	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	310 PAS, 3 TD
8	Matt Ryan, ATL	225 PAS, 2 TD, 2 INT
9	Mark Sanchez, PHI	305 PAS, 2 TD, 2 INT
10	Cam Newton, CAR	215 PAS, 45 RUS, 2 TD, 1 INT
11	Russell Wilson, SEA	210 PAS, 55 RUS, 1 TD
12	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	275 PAS, 30 RUS, 2 TD
13	Philip Rivers, SD	245 PAS, 1 TD
14	Matthew Stafford, DET	290 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
15	Eli Manning, NYG	275 PAS, 2 TD
16	Colin Kaepernick, SF	180 PAS, 30 RUS, 1 TD, 1 INT
17	Robert Griffin III, WAS	205 PAS, 25 RUS, 1 TD, 1 INT
18	Jay Cutler, CHI	255 PAS, 1 TD, 2 INT
19	Drew Stanton, ARI	265 PAS, 2 TD
20	Joe Flacco, BAL	240 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT

Sleeper: Drew Stanton, Arizona Cardinals

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Yes, I understand. The thought of starting Drew Stanton right on the cusp of the postseason—or even in the playoffs in certain leagues—is quite terrifying. He has completed just 53.6 percent of his passes this season and is fresh off an atrocious 149-yard effort against the Seattle Seahawks.

But this matchup is too enticing.

The Atlanta Falcons are last in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed and 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. If conventional stats aren't to your liking, Football Outsiders ranks the Birds dead last in pass defense according to DVOA, a defensive efficiency metric.

When Stanton actually has a comfortable pocket—the Falcons have the second-worst sack percentage in the league, so we're good there—he can actually sling it. Despite the low completion percentage, he's averaging a healthy 7.1 yards per attempt. As Pro Football Focus noted, that's aided by his propensity to launch it downfield:

"

Drew Stanton's average depth of target (12.9 yards) is more than twice as far down field as that of Alex Smith (5.9)

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 20, 2014"

If Larry Fitzgerald remains sidelined, it's probably best to stay away from Stanton. But with a full arsenal of weapons, he can produce top-15 numbers against the defense-less Falcons.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Projections
1	DeMarco Murray, DAL	145 RUS, 1 TD
2	Arian Foster, HOU	120 RUS, 2 TD
3	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	105 RUS, 25 REC, 1 TD
4	Jamaal Charles, KC	75 RUS, 30 REC, 1 TD
5	Matt Forte, CHI	55 RUS, 45 REC, 1 TD
6	LeSean McCoy, PHI	115 RUS
7	Justin Forsett, BAL	95 RUS, 25 REC, 1 TD
8	Alfred Morris, WAS	100 RUS
9	Mark Ingram, NO	65 RUS, 20 REC
10	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	95 RUS, 1 TD
11	Eddie Lacy, GB	65 RUS, 55 REC, 1 TD
12	Tre Mason, STL	120 RUS, 1 TD
13	Denard Robinson, JAX	45 RUS, 35 REC
14	Andre Ellington, ARI	85 RUS, 45 REC, 1 TD
15	Jeremy Hill, CIN	90 RUS, 1 TD
16	Isaiah Crowell, CLE	70 RUS
17	Rashad Jennings, NYG	55 RUS, 35 REC, 1 TD
18	Ryan Mathews, SD	105 RUS, 1 TD
19	C.J. Anderson, DEN	110 RUS, 30 REC
20	Frank Gore, SF	75 RUS, 1 TD
21	Lamar Miller, MIA	65 RUS
22	Giovani Bernard, CIN	60 RUS, 40 REC
23	Jerick McKinnon, MIN	75 RUS, 15 REC
24	Daniel Herron, IND	50 RUS, 35 REC, 1 TD
25	Terrance West, CLE	45 RUS
26	Joique Bell, DET	75 RUS, 20 REC, 1 TD
27	Trent Richardson, IND	45 RUS
28	Shane Vereen, NE	15 RUS, 55 REC
29	LeGarrette Blount, NE	75 RUS, 1 TD
30	Steven Jackson, ATL	50 RUS

Sleeper: Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Tre Mason's breakout week is close.

Although Benny Cunningham has continued to be involved in the game plan, the rookie has tallied 78 carries in the last four weeks, squashing any talk of the dreaded running back by committee. Unfortunately, 3.7 yards per tote and zero touchdowns over that span have kept him from fully taking advantage for fantasy owners.

However, there are reasons to believe those numbers won't develop into trends.

As far as the touchdowns go, the Rams offense isn't what you would call prolific, but Mason is getting the opportunities when they get close to paydirt. Take a look at his red-zone touches since he entered the scene in Week 7:

Player	Wk 7	Wk 8	Wk 9	Wk 10	Wk 11	Wk 12	Total
Tre Mason	6	1	0	1	3	0	11
Benny Cunningham	0	0	1	1	0	0	2
Zac Stacy	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

And the low yardage output isn't an indication of his talent. Showing tremendous burst and power, he has broken off three 20-plus-yard gains in the last four games. ESPN's Louis Riddick recently raved about his talent:

"I think things are starting to slow down for me,” Mason said, via STLouisRams.com's Myles Simmons. “I’m starting to feel a lot more comfortable, getting in the flow of things, getting back to balling.”

Mason's schedule—the 49ers, Cardinals, Broncos and Chargers in the last month—has been brutal. But he has the talent, he has the heavy workload and against an Oakland Raiders unit that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, he'll churn out top-10 numbers.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Antonio Brown, PIT	95 REC
2	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	105 REC
3	Calvin Johnson, DET	105 REC, 1 TD
4	Jordy Nelson, GB	100 REC, 2 TD
5	Julio Jones, ATL	65 REC, 1 TD
6	Dez Bryant, DAL	110 REC, 2 TD
7	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	95 REC
8	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	65 REC, 1 TD
9	A.J. Green, CIN	90 REC
10	T.Y. Hilton, IND	125 REC, 1 TD
11	Randall Cobb, GB	85 REC, 1 TD
12	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	105 REC
13	Josh Gordon, CLE	120 REC, 1 TD
14	Mike Evans, TB	105 REC, 1 TD
15	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	80 REC
16	Brandon LaFell, NE	60 REC, 1 TD
17	Percy Harvin, NYJ	30 REC, 15 RUS
18	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	80 REC, 1 TD
19	Brandon Marshall, CHI	90 REC, 1 TD
20	Julian Edelman, NE	75 REC
21	Anquan Boldin, SF	65 REC
22	Sammy Watkins, BUF	60 REC
23	Keenan Allen, SD	95 REC
24	Golden Tate, DET	100 REC, 1 TD
25	Roddy White, ATL	75 REC, 1 TD
26	Steve Smith, BAL	80 REC
27	Vincent Jackson, TB	75 REC
28	Martavis Bryant, PIT	80 REC, 1 TD
29	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	95 REC
30	Mike Wallace, MIA	75 REC, 1 TD
31	DeSean Jackson, WSH	45 REC
32	Reggie Wayne, IND	50 REC
33	Jordan Matthews, PHI	90 REC, 1 TD
34	Marques Colston, NO	75 REC
35	Dwayne Bowe, KC	55 REC

Sleeper: Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts

AJ Mast/Associated Press

One of the most frustrating themes of the fantasy football season has been Donte Moncrief's usage in comparison to Hakeem Nicks. 

In 11 games, a completely unproductive and underwhelming Nicks has 24 catches for 243 yards and three touchdowns. With Reggie Wayne sidelined in Week 7, Moncrief approached those numbers in just four quarters, pulling down seven catches for 113 yards and a score against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Yet, for whatever odd reason, Nicks continued to stand above the much more talented rookie on the depth chart. That is, until Week 12, via ColtsAuthority.com's Kyle J. Rodriguez (and confirmed by ESPN's Mike Wells):

And in the least surprising result ever, Moncrief turned his four targets into four catches and 38 yards, while Nicks finished with one reception for 16 yards.

Moncrief is still behind T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne, but in this explosive offense, there is plenty of value in the WR3—especially if it's someone with the 21-year-old's kind of talent.

Against a woeful Washington Redskins secondary, five or six targets should be enough for Moncrief to have a big day. Now, let's just hope Chuck Pagano and Pep Hamilton have come to their senses and continue to give him more snaps.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Rob Gronkowski, NE	110 REC, 2 TD
2	Jimmy Graham, NO	95 REC, 1 TD
3	Julius Thomas, DEN	45 REC, 1 TD
4	Antonio Gates, SD	45 REC, 1 TD
5	Greg Olsen, CAR	60 REC
6	Martellus Bennett, CHI	25 REC
7	Delanie Walker, TEN	80 REC
8	Dwayne Allen, IND	60 REC, 1 TD
9	Jared Cook, STL	35 REC
10	Travis Kelce, KC	75 REC, 1 TD
11	Mychal Rivera, OAK	45 REC
12	Owen Daniels, BAL	35 REC, 1 TD
13	Jason Witten, DAL	35 REC
14	Charles Clay, MIA	65 REC, 1 TD
15	Kyle Rudolph, MIN	50 REC, 1 TD

Sleeper: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Kyle Rudolph is still getting back into the swing of things after missing nearly two months with a sports hernia, but it's clear he's healthy. The 25-year-old played on 60 of 66 offensive snaps Sunday, turning five targets into three receptions for 50 yards.

While that production is still just scratching the surface of what he can do, it's important that he's simply back on the field and receiving normal usage. The Vikes are desperate for consistent weapons in the passing game, and Teddy Bridgewater needs a reliable safety valve.

Rudolph can be both of those, and he should only continue to get better as the season progresses.

Although his return from injury hasn't been fruitful, he's a TE1 against the Carolina Panthers.