NFL Picks Week 12: Odds and Over-Under Advice Before Sunday Kickoff

Good luck figuring out the NFL.

Just when you think we have a large enough sample size to start playing the odds correctly, the St. Louis Rams knock off Peyton Manning and the Oakland Raiders pick up their first win of the season against a legitimate playoff contender in the Kansas City Chiefs.

The suggestion here is to proceed with caution when picking against the odds or even venturing into the over-under territory. The NFL is incredibly unpredictable, and that likely won’t change in the 14 games remaining on the Week 12 schedule.

With that in mind, here is a look at the odds, over-under lines and some predictions for the Week 12 slate. Odds and over-under lines are courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Saturday at midnight ET.

Matchup	Spread	Prediction Against Spread	Over-Under	Over-Under Prediction
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears	CHI -5.5	Bears	46	Over
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons	ATL -3	Falcons	47.5	Under
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -12.5	Eagles	48.5	Over
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots	NE -7.5	Patriots	47.5	Under
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings	GB -9.5	Packers	48.5	Over
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts	IND -15	Colts	50.5	Over
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans	Even	Texans	43.5	Over
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -7.5	Cardinals	41	Over
St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers	SD -5	Rams	43.5	Under
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos	DEN -7	Broncos	47.5	Over
Washington at San Francisco 49ers	SF -10	49ers	44.5	Over
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants	DAL -3	Cowboys	47.5	Over
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (in Detroit)	BUF -2.5	Bills	41.5	Over
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints	NO -3	Saints	50	Under

Take the Under: Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

There may be some firepower on paper between the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions, but the under is the smart play with this matchup.

For one, the Lions offense is a disappointing 26th in the league in points per game at 18.8. Part of that can be attributed to Calvin Johnson missing time with injury earlier in the year, but he has to clash heads with superstar cornerback Darrelle Revis on Sunday after struggling against the Arizona Cardinals.

Detroit has actually failed to score more than 24 points in a single game since Week 1 and fell short of 20 five different times in that span.

The Lions have zero rushing attack (31st in the league), so defenses have been able to drop more in the secondary and take away Matt Stafford’s ability to carve them up. Writer Jared Dublin pointed out during the loss to Arizona that Detroit would be in trouble if it was solely reliant on the offense:

Fortunately for the Lions, that defense will be there against the Patriots on Sunday.

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

The Lions lead the NFL in scoring defense because they are fifth in the league against the pass and first against the run. They have held their opponents to fewer than 20 points in seven of 10 games as well. 

Detroit won’t completely shut down a Patriots offense that is second in the NFL in points per game and red hot behind the ruthless efficiency of Tom Brady, but it will do enough to keep this game under 47.5 combined points.

Take the Over: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

The Chicago Bears offense looked like a fantasy football player’s dream coming into the season.

Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and even Jay Cutler were all seen as serious weapons, and points were supposed to come in bunches. While Forte has delivered, the passing game has been inconsistent at best, which is bound to happen when the quarterback has five multi-interception games in the team’s first 10 contests.

It finally looked like the offense started to turn the page in the win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday when Forte ran for more than 100 yards, Jeffery tallied more than 100 receiving yards and Marshall finished with two touchdown catches.

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

The Bears only put up 21 points because of a missed field goal and turnovers, but the signs were there. Now they get to test that against a Tampa Bay defense that is 30th in the league in points allowed per game.

In fact, there are only two defenses in the entire NFL worse than the Buccaneers in the scoring department, and one of those just so happens to be the Bears.

Chicago is dead-last in the NFL at 29 points allowed per game, and the Buccaneers are fresh off a victory over Washington when rookie wide receiver Mike Evans emerged with 209 receiving yards and two touchdown catches.

Chicago cannot stop the pass (25th in the league), and Evans and quarterback Josh McCown should have their way with its struggling secondary.

It was actually Cutler singing McCown's praises before the game, via Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com:

"

I think Josh is good for a lot of people. I think you could pair him up with probably most of the people in this room, and he’d find a way to help make you better. He’s not going to make you worse. I know that. He’s just one of those types of people. So I know he’s doing good things for that quarterback room in Tampa, just like he did for us. 

"

Between an emerging Chicago offense against a struggling Tampa Bay defense and McCown and Evans facing the terrible Bears defense, the over is the smart call here.

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