NFL Week 12 Picks: Final Predictions and Over/Under Odds Before Thursday Night

There's a saying that the NFL season does not start until Thanksgiving.  That axiom has never been more true than in 2014, as this season has seen an unusual amount of imbalance between the haves and have-nots.

As a result, through 11 weeks, there are more teams with realistic playoff aspirations than in a typical year.  For reference, Football Outsiders gives 16 teams at least a 33 percent chance of reaching the postseason in their current playoff odds.

Therefore, bettors who realize these trends can exploit the mainstream perspective that has yet to catch up with this unusual season.  Taking a look at every over/under line from the Week 12 slate, via Odds Shark, let's highlight some of the most favorable scenarios this weekend.

Matchup	O/U	O/U Pick
Kansas City at Oakland	42.3	Under
Cleveland at Atlanta	47	Under
Tennessee at Philadelphia	48.5	Under
Detroit at New England	48	Over
Cincinnati at Houston	43.5	Under
Green Bay at Minnesota	49	Under
Tampa Bay at Chicago	46	Over
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	50.5	Over
NY Jets at Buffalo	39.5	Under
Arizona at Seattle	42	Under
St. Louis at San Diego	43.5	Over
Washington at San Francisco	44	Over
Miami at Denver	49	Over
Dallas at NY Giants	47.5	Over
Baltimore at New Orleans	50	Over

Lions vs. Patriots: Over 48

On paper, this would seemingly favor the under selection.  The Detroit Lions defense ranks first in FO's DVOA metric, and while the New England Patriots are a bit lower by those standards, they have been consistent in holding opponents to between 20 to 25 points over the past month.  Considering that the Pats have faced elite offenses like Indianapolis' and Denver's over that stretch, it's clear that New England has the weapons to stifle Detroit's aerial attack.

However, there are potential mismatches on each team that could sway the combined score to the overs.  For one, Rob Gronkowski remains an irrepressible nightmare that no defense can stop.  Moreover, the one Achilles' heel of the Lions defense is on the perimeter, where corners Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis have had issues with bigger receivers like Michael Floyd and Kelvin Benjamin this year.  That could spell a big day for Brandon LaFell, who has emerged as Brady's go-to target outside the numbers.

For the Lions, Golden Tate should bounce back after a meager two-catch effort against the Arizona Cardinals last week.  There's no gimme in New England's secondary, but as the slot receiver, Tate figures to primarily draw Kyle Arrington, who can be had on the man coverage-beating concepts that the Lions like to run.

Most importantly, history suggests that games in Gillette typically result in an active scoreboard.  According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, just four of 13 regular-season games over the past two years have ended under Sunday's projected over/under line.  Assuming the Patriots exhibit their usual offensive consistency at home, expect Detroit to score enough as well to push this over 48, even with two excellent defenses at hand.

Packers vs. Vikings: Under 49

The issue here is not with the Green Bay Packers, whose offense is operating at full speed.  As hot as Aaron Rodgers and Co. are, 49 combined points will likely require a joint effort, and it's unclear if the Minnesota Vikings can fulfill their end of the bargain.

Minnesota's offense ranks 29th in weighted DVOA, meaning that it has been the league's fourth-worst offense when recent games are weighted.  Indeed, since Teddy Bridgewater returned from an ankle injury in Week 6, the Vikes' 4.6 yards-per-play mark ranks third-worst in the league, per PFR.  With the Packers defense rejuvenated by Dom Capers' creative play-calling and improved range in the secondary, the Vikings will likely struggle to break 14.

That would place an awful lot of pressure on Green Bay to push this to the overs.  The Packers passing game is a mismatch against any team, but the Vikings do possess the speed in the back seven to at least compete and perhaps limit Rodgers.  Minnesota has not conceded over 30 points since the last time it played Green Bay in Week 5, and that was marred by the Christian Ponder debacle.

With the game in Minneapolis, it would be surprising to see Rodgers light up Minnesota's defense as much as he did that Thursday night.  The Packers should be heavy favorites, but that does not necessarily equate to a high combined score.

Cowboys vs. Giants: Over 47.5

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Quite frankly, this line is a little puzzling.  In nine meetings over the last five seasons, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants have exceeded this projected total six times while never scoring below 41 combined points.  

These are two traditionally lax defenses that give up big chunks, and this season is no different.  Dallas and New York rank 26th and 32nd in yards conceded per play, respectively.  Injuries have decimated the Giants secondary, while the Cowboys have been skating by defensively all season due to a higher-than-expected takeaway rate and tremendous ball control from their own offense to keep them off the field.

More importantly, both teams are adept at cashing in once they reach the red zone.  Both teams rank in the top seven in red-zone touchdown percentage, as their big perimeter receivers have allowed Eli Manning and Tony Romo to sidestep the restricted passing windows with seams and fades.

Even with Dallas' superior record, this has the makings of a back-and-forth game filled with long possessions and plenty of scoring opportunities.  Consequently, barring an uncharacteristic red-zone drought from one or both teams, it would seem likely that the combined score would ascend into at least the 50s.