NFL Picks Week 12: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

While there is a severe lack of marquee matchups in Week 12 of the NFL season, adding spreads always makes things interesting.

There are only three games between teams with winning records, but two of them feature home teams looking to remain perfect at home (the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos).

Arguably the most interesting game for fans is the NFC West battle between the 9-1 Arizona Cardinals and the 6-4 Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is the seven-point favorite, according to Odds Shark. 

This leaves gamblers to have all the fun as they attempt to pick games against the spread, including some relatively large lines. 

Here is a look at my picks and analysis for the week's games with some help from Bleacher Report's experts and others around the web.

Away	Predicted Score	Home	Pick ATS*
Kansas City Chiefs	27-10	Oakland Raiders	KC -7.5
Cleveland Browns	20-24	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -3
Tennessee Titans	17-31	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -11
Detroit Lions	17-27	New England Patriots	NE -7.5
Cincinnati Bengals	27-24	Houston Texans	CIN +1
Green Bay Packers	34-21	Minnesota Vikings	GB -9.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	28-35	Chicago Bears	CHI -5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	13-31	Indianapolis Colts	IND -14
New York Jets	14-17	Buffalo Bills	NYJ +4.5
Arizona Cardinals	20-17	Seattle Seahawks	ARI +7
St. Louis Rams	24-21	San Diego Chargers	STL +4.5
Washington Redskins	10-21	San Francisco 49ers	SF -9
Miami Dolphins	27-38	Denver Broncos	DEN -8
Dallas Cowboys	28-20	New York Giants	DAL -3
Baltimore Ravens	21-20	New Orleans Saints	BAL +3

Game	Matt Miller	Mike Freeman	Matt Bowen	Michael Schottey	Chris Simms
KC at OAK	KC	KC	KC	KC	KC
CLE at ATL	ATL	CLE	CLE	CLE	CLE
TEN at PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI
DET at NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
GB at MIN	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB
JAX at IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND
CIN at HOU	CIN	HOU	CIN	HOU	HOU
NYJ at BUF	BUF	NYJ	BUF	BUF	BUF
TB at CHI	CHI	TB	CHI	CHI	TB
ARI at SEA	SEA	ARI	SEA	ARI	ARI
STL at SD	SD	STL	STL	SD	STL
MIA at DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
WAS at SF	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF
DAL at NYG	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL
BAL at NO	BAL	BAL	NO	NO	BAL

Full view of Bleacher Report's expert picks available here.  

Tough Calls

Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Seattle Seahawks

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Nobody wins in Seattle! Well, except for the Cardinals, who surprised many with a victory in CenturyLink Field last season. Arizona held on to the ball (37 minutes, 24 seconds of possession) and utilized its great defense to earn a 17-10 win despite Carson Palmer's four interceptions.

Palmer played an awful game last time around, so Arizona knows it can win without him, and Drew Stanton will try to keep the red-hot squad in the win column. The Cardinals have an elite defense (third in the NFL in points allowed per game) and enough offensive weapons to earn another victory on the road.

Additionally, a current three-game lead in the NFC West means this game has big stakes, as noted by Dave Dameshek of NFL.com:

Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians is not ready to celebrate anything just yet, though:

The coach is keeping his team focused on the task at hand, and the squad should come into Seattle hungry for another win. The talent is there to pull it off, and the Cardinals should at least be able to keep things close enough to cover the spread.

New England Patriots (-7.5) vs. Detroit Lions

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

The Lions have played better than anyone could have expected this season, especially without Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for much of the year. In fact, it is the defense that has led this team to a 7-3 record.

A road win against the Patriots would certainly prove Detroit can be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Unfortunately, the odds do not seem to be in the team's favor.

Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News does not think this game will even be close:

"

The Lions are known for finding creative ways of missing the playoffs. The Patriots are known for always finding brilliant ways to make the playoffs. Nothing has to give here as a great home team host the shakiest of road teams. The marquee matchup seems to be Calvin Johnson vs. Darrelle Revis, but it’s really on the flip side with Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots’ wideouts posing all kind of nightmares for Detroit’s back seven.

"

Meanwhile, Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders points out just how poorly Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has fared against winning teams in his career, especially on the road:

The young passer will not be able to rack up stats and will face the pressure of a defense that recently had great performances against Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. 

On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady has been almost unstoppable with 20 touchdowns to only three interceptions during the current six-game winning streak. With a newfound running game behind Jonas Gray, the Patriots should be able to keep up the pace against Detroit.

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