NFL Predictions Week 12: Can't-Miss Picks and Matchup Guide

Week 12 provides another opportunity for NFL contenders to blossom at the expense of pretenders. 

Last Sunday, the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs captivated at the expense of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks. As the two victors smile and pose as title threats during the week's news cycle, the losers get their playoff livelihoods questioned as punishment.

There are plenty of chances for other teams to make similar statements. After Week 12, all 32 teams will compete during each of the final five slates. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Carolina Panthers are the only franchises with byes this week.

That gives everyone 15 matchups to dissect as the playoff plot thickens. Let's take a look at some juicy contests in which bettors can reap the rewards.

Point spreads courtesy of Odds Shark as of Thursday morning.

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Spread	Pick Straight Up	Pick ATS
Thursday, Nov. 20	Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	KC -8	KC	KC
Sunday, Nov. 23	Cleveland Browns	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -3	CLE	CLE
Sunday, Nov. 23	Tennessee Titans	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -12.5	PHI	TEN
Sunday, Nov. 23	Detroit Lions	New England Patriots	NE -7.5	NE	NE
Sunday, Nov. 23	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Texans	HOU -1	CIN	CIN
Sunday, Nov. 23	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	GB -10	GB	GB
Sunday, Nov. 23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chicago Bears	CHI -5.5	CHI	CHI
Sunday, Nov. 23	Jacksonville Jaguars	Indianapolis Colts	IND -15	IND	IND
Sunday, Nov. 23	New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	BUF -3.5	BUF	BUF
Sunday, Nov. 23	Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -7	SEA	ARI
Sunday, Nov. 23	St. Louis Rams	San Diego Chargers	SD -4.5	SD	SD
Sunday, Nov. 23	Washington Redskins	San Francisco 49ers	SF -10.5	SF	SF
Sunday, Nov. 23	Miami Dolphins	Denver Broncos	DEN -8	DEN	DEN
Sunday, Nov. 23	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	DAL -2.5	DAL	DAL
Monday, Nov. 24	Baltimore Ravens	New Orleans Saints	NO -3	BAL	BAL

Cleveland Browns (+3) vs. Atlanta Falcons

The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons are favored to knock off the 6-4 Cleveland Browns. That's a bit odd, although not as bizarre as the fact that the Falcons hold the lead in the NFC South while the Browns are trapped in the AFC North's basement.

Records don't mean everything, as the Browns have picked up cupcake wins over the Tennessee Titans, the Oakland Raiders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's fine not to trust the Browns' fast start, but they are better than the Falcons, who picked up two victories over the lowly Buccaneers while escaping with a 19-17 triumph over the dysfunctional Carolina Panthers last Sunday.

Don't let the two-game winning streak or first-place standing fool you: The Falcons are a bad football team. They're last in total defense and passing defense with no wins outside their dreadful division.

Even so, picking Atlanta inside the Georgia Dome wouldn't have been the poorest choice last week. Perhaps the oddsmakers forgot about Josh Gordon, who will make his season debut this weekend.

Last season, the superstar wideout compiled 87 receptions for 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns despite missing the opening two games. As shown by ESPN Stats & Info, Brian Hoyer is poised to benefit from his presence:

In their two games together last season, Hoyer and Gordon connected 14 times for 217 yards and a touchdown. Now, they get to reunite against the NFL's worst defense. The offense will also benefit from transitioning rookie Isaiah Crowell, who leads the team with 4.6 yards per carry, into the starting rusher role.

Cleveland is only an underdog by virtue of the spread. Nobody should leave Sunday surprised when big days from Gordon and Crowell send Atlanta to 4-7, which still may be good enough to lead the South.

Chicago Bears (-5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

As is often the case following a dissected sample size, the Chicago Bears' catastrophic meltdown was overblown. Sure, they're not very good, but facing two red-hot Super Bowl contenders didn't help their cause.

The walls closed in on Chicago's season after the Bears surrendered 106 combined points to the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers in back-to-back weeks. Given a much-needed reprieve against the Minnesota Vikings, the Bears bounced back with a 21-13 victory.

Despite a somewhat close call, the Bears thoroughly controlled the matchup, gaining 468 total yards to Minnesota's 243. While Jay Cutler surrendered two interceptions, he also registered 330 passing yards and three touchdowns against a top-10 passing defense.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers do not boast a top-10 anything, with their No. 30 pass-prevention unit representing the weakest of a rusty chain of weak links. They beat Washington by 20 points last weekend, but they gained only seven more yards in the process.

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

When Lovie Smith returns to Chicago, he will not arrive a conquering hero as head of the 2-8 Buccaneers, who rank last in Football Outsiders' DVOA. Yet linebacker Lance Briggs remembers the coach fondly from his Chicago days, per ESPNChicago.com's Jeff Dickerson.

Without the personnel, the franchise has fluttered under Smith's watch, diminishing his chances of getting the last laugh this weekend. Chicago is bad but not quite Tampa Bay bad. 

New England Patriots (-7.5) vs. Detroit Lions

There's a much larger separation between these two division leaders than their records suggest, a theory supported by the sizable spread.

Leading the AFC at 8-2, the New England Patriots stand one puny win over the 7-3 Detroit Lions. A matchup between foes with similar marks usually leads fans and pundits to think Super Bowl preview. Maybe that's partially right, but the Lions have work to do before they deserve recognition in the same stratosphere as New England.

Detroit's plus-32 point differential ranks 12th in the league, far behind New England's 105, which ties Green Bay for first. Weighted DVOA ratings back up the greater distance, as Detroit ranks ninth with a 8.6 percent clip compared to the AFC East ruler's 20.6 percent.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Don't expect Jonas Gray to come close to Sunday night's breakout outing, in which he trounced the Indianapolis Colts for 201 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Instead, expect a plan more in line with the Patriots' Week 9 victory over the Denver Broncos, in which Tom Brady threw 53 times compared to 23 handoffs.

The biggest question is whether New England can triumph by more than a touchdown. Brady addressed possibly playing to a small margin to The Boston Globe's Michael Whitmer.

"The games are always close at some point," he said. "At some point they [might] end up not being close. I prefer those a lot more than the close ones. It’s always just about our execution, and if does come down to the last possession, I think we've proven that we can handle that, too. Whatever it takes to win."

Considering New England's 19-point average margin of victory during its six-game winning streak, give Brady and Co. the benefit of the doubt against a tough defense but underachieving offense.