NFL Week 12 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

Few better fall-back plans exist in the world of NFL picks than the over/under.

Bettors worried about a particular spread can attempt to make up the difference with a bet on the total points scored in a matchup, although it is something that can burn even the best of the best if not done properly.

Look at last week, when many assumed the Denver Broncos would blow away the St. Louis Rams and cover the over of more than 50 points—maybe even on their own. The Broncos scored seven and the game hardly breached half of the over.

The key is to not just make quick decisions and roll forward. Over/under takes time, so go into the situation with an open mind.

NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Kansas City at Oakland	KC -7.5 (42.3)	Chiefs	O	The Chiefs will have few issues running wild on a putrid Raiders defense.
Cleveland at Atlanta	ATL -3 (47)	Falcons	O	The Falcons are tough at home, and the Browns secondary will have no answers for Julio Jones.
Tennessee at Philadelphia	PHI -10.5 (48.5)	Titans	U	The Titans are better than advertised and can pressure Mark Sanchez consistently.
Detroit at New England	NE -7.5 (48)	Lions	U	See analysis below.
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -1 (43.5)	Bengals	U	Cincinnati is on the upswing at the right time as the offense continues to get healthy.
Green Bay at Minnesota	GB -10 (49)	Packers	O	Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable at this juncture, a trend that will continue against Minnesota's defense.
Tampa Bay at Chicago	CHI -6 (46)	Buccaneers	O	Josh McCown going against his old team does not sound like much, but it will produce an upset.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	IND -14 (50.5)	Jaguars	O	Denard Robinson can help keep the ball out of Andrew Luck's hands to the point this large spread is just too much.
NY Jets at Buffalo	BUF -4.5 (39.5)	Jets	U	Michael Vick in the face of a great rush on the road is bad news.
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -7 (42)	Cardinals	O	Drew Stanton looks like Carson Palmer, while the Seahawks look nothing like defending champs.
St. Louis at San Diego	SD -6 (43.5)	Chargers	O	Philip Rivers can overcome a shaky defense at home when asked.
Washington at San Francisco	SF -9 (44)	49ers	O	San Francisco is back to form while Washington implodes. Easy.
Miami at Denver	DEN -7.5 (49)	Dolphins	U	Miami quietly has one of the best secondaries in the NFL, while Peyton Manning has struggled over the course of the last few weeks.
Dallas at NY Giants	DAL -3.5 (47.5)	Cowboys	O	See analysis below.
Baltimore at New Orleans	NO -3.5 (50)	Ravens	O	New Orleans has shockingly lost two in a row at home, while Baltimore had a bye week to prepare for Drew Brees.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 7 a.m. ET on Nov. 19.

Top Over/Under Picks of Week 11

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-7.5)

Over/Under: 48

See, this is exactly what an over/under trap looks like.

The Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson vs. the New England Patriots with Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski is sure to be way over, right?

Look closer.

New England has scored 42 points or more in each of its last three games. Tom Brady is on fire with 11 touchdowns to three interceptions in that same span. The team even found a running game last week thanks to Jonas Gray, who rushed for 201 yards and four scores.

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

The hiccup there is Detroit.

NFL.com's Dave Dameshek puts it best:

For one reason or another, the Lions offense is just not that potent this year. Stafford's unit has allowed the Lions to score more than 30 points just once this season, with five games with fewer than 20 points. Keep in mind things may not get better, as Megatron has to next deal with a secondary led by Darrelle Revis—just one week removed from being held to just 59 yards by Patrick Peterson. 

On the flip side, Brady and Co. may be in for a sudden halt in production against a Lions defense that ranks fifth against the pass and first against the rush.

In Foxborough, it is hard to imagine the Patriots lose thanks to a consistent offense, but this could very quietly morph into a defensive battle in the process, which would negate the over in a big way.

Prediction: Patriots 17, Lions 13

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants

Over/Under: 47.5

Tim Ireland/Associated Press

This one will prove to be a fun high-scoring affair between NFC East rivals so long as Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is fully healthy.

According to owner Jerry Jones, who spoke with 105.3 The Fan [KRLD-FM] recently, Romo should be just fine by Sunday, as captured by Jon Machota The Dallas News:

"

I think it’s really beneficial, and he knows how to use it. I think by the time we kickoff Sunday he will have maximized this break for himself and for us. I was really pleased he had the outing he had in London. It certainly showed that with a couple more weeks of just simple letting it rest, if no other thing, then he’ll be in better shape in that particular area of his back.

"

The last time these two met they blew away this particular over in a 31-21 Cowboys victory that saw Tony Romo throw for 279 yards and a trio of scores while back DeMarco Murray ran 28 times for 128 yards and a touchdown.

Believe it or not, New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning was electric in that affair as well, throwing for a trio of touchdown passes of his own. Starting running back Rashad Jennings was out of the picture, though.

Honestly, this one figures to have a similar result. Expect plenty of scoring, but Dallas is on fire as of late and coming off a bye week, meaning the team had more time than usual to prepare for a familiar foe.

New York has lost five in a row and ranks dead last against the rush, so Murray figures to be in for another epic performance as the Cowboys roll on the road.

Prediction: Cowboys 36, Giants 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Pittsburgh and Carolina on bye.