Week 12 NFL Picks: Predictions on Vegas' Midweek Betting Odds and Lines

Although picking the underdog is always more fun, some NFL favorites make smarter Week 12 betting choices. 

Upsets happen every week, so it's foolish to think this weekend will prove to be the exception. Yet looking at current betting lines, updated as of Wednesday via Odds Shark, some heavy favorites aren't getting enough respect.

A few games on the docket have "blowout" written all over them, but the odds don't depict an upcoming massacre. Here are three cases where the favorites look poised to rattle off a sizable victory over the weekend.

Away	Home	Line*	Pick ATS
Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	KC -8	KC
Cleveland Browns	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -3	CLE
Tennessee Titans	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -12.5	TEN
Detroit Lions	New England Patriots	NE -7.5	NE
Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Texans	HOU -1	CIN
Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	GB -10	GB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chicago Bears	CHI -5.5	CHI
Jacksonville Jaguars	Indianapolis Colts	IND -15	IND
New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	BUF -4.5	BUF
Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -7	ARI
St. Louis Rams	San Diego Chargers	SD -4.5	SD
Washington Redskins	San Francisco 49ers	SF -10.5	SF
Miami Dolphins	Denver Broncos	DEN -8	DEN
Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	DAL -2.5	DAL
Baltimore Ravens	New Orleans Saints	NO -3	BAL

Bet the Favorites

Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Oakland Raiders

The hottest team in the NFL clashes against the winless Oakland Raiders, yet the Kansas City Chiefs are not one of four teams favored by doubled digits.

The Chiefs have battled the league's best thus far, combating the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. During their 7-1 stretch, the Chiefs faced only two losing squads, the St. Louis Rams and New York Jets. They outscored those two clubs by a combined 41 points.

To be fair, the Raiders have lost six of their 10 games by single digits, including to veritable foes such as the Patriots, Seahawks and twice against the San Diego Chargers. 

This matchup, however, bodes poorly for them attaining their first win. Oakland ranks No. 27 against the run. After a slow, injury-riddled start, Jamaal Charles has compiled 497 rushing yards and seven touchdowns over the past five games.

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

He decimated the Seahawks, who entered their Week 11 clash ranked third in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA in terms of rushing. Lined up against a poor front seven, he's poised for another monster outing.

Derek Carr also must test his arm against Kansas City's No. 1 passing defense. Averaging 4.47 yards per attempt over his last three games, the rookie quarterback still has a long ways to go, so he can't be trusted against a stout unit.

Green Bay Packers (-10) at Minnesota Vikings

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers are on a massive tear, and the Minnesota Vikings are the next victim lying in their way.

Green Bay has scored 108 points over its last two games, with 656 passing yards and nine touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers. Campaigning for his second MVP honor, the 2011 winner is dominating secondaries on deep throws, as illuminated by Pro Football Focus.

"

On passes 10+ yards downfield in 2014, #Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown 16 TDs and just 1 INT

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 18, 2014"

Someone weary of taking the points would justifiably fear the law of averages regressing the Packers to the mean. Look what happened to the Pittsburgh Steelers after Ben Roethlisberger's consecutive six-touchdown performances.

The Vikings are also much better at containing the aerial assault than the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles. While Rodgers' latest victims rank No. 25 and 28, respectively, against the pass, Minnesota places No. 8.

In terms of efficiency, however, the Vikings don't stack up as superbly. Their 7.3 opposing yards per attempts stacks in the middle of the NFL, and they plummet all the way down to No. 29 with a 67.7 completion percentage.

Their last meeting embodies all those trends, as Rodgers went 12-of-17 for a season-low 156 passing yards and three touchdowns during a 42-10 victory. Eddie Lacy chipped in with 105 rushing yards and two scores.

Minnesota has faced three winning teams (Green Bay, New England, Detroit Lions) this year, going 0-3 while falling by a combined 69 points. Anyone who wants to bet on the Packers falling back down to earth should wait for their Week 12 tilt against the Pats.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Giants

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Eli Manning threw five interceptions against the San Francisco 49ers, but the 16-10 defeat still represented the New York Giants' closest loss of the year. All six of their other shortcomings resulted in a double-digit margin.

Big Blue's schedule hasn't been forgiving, but the 7-3 Dallas Cowboys don't exactly represent a reprieve. The Giants gave them their best shot in Week 7 but still lost by 10. They'd be fortunate to lose by 10 again yet alone make this a field-goal game.

There's something about the NFL's leading rusher facing the NFL's worst run defense that doesn't speak kindly to New York's chances. DeMarco Murray gained 128 yards when these rivals last met, and that's a tame projection for this Sunday.

Now, it's a matter of making sure he doesn't wear down. Murray has already assumed a career-high 244 carries, putting him on pace for 390 handoffs. Dallas has addressed that issue, limiting his rushes to 19 in each of the last three games after receiving 29 against the Giants during Week 7.

Unfortunately for the G-Men, Murray will return refreshed from a Week 11 bye. As he told ESPNDallas.com's Todd Archer, he has no reservations about touching the ball too many times for his long-term health.

"I'm ready," Murray said. "Like I've said before, whatever they ask me to do, I'm going to do it times 10. It's going to be an exciting next couple of weeks for us."

Amassing at least 100 yards on the ground in all but one game this season, he's a safe bet to control ball possession with a fury of effective gains. A shocking Monday night loss to Washington in Week 8 should prevent the Cowboys from easing up and falling into another trap against a faltering NFC East foe.