Week 12 Fantasy Football Projections: Stat Predictions for Top 100 Players

In fantasy circles, Week 11 in the NFL was a weird one.

The best example of that? In a standard-scoring league, a team of Drew Stanton, Jonas Gray, Alfred Blue, Kenny Britt, Michael Floyd and Coby Fleener would have outscored a team of Peyton Manning, LeSean McCoy, Andre Ellington, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Jimmy Graham, 125.94-47.36.

Gray, who began the week with 131 career yards, had as many rushing touchdowns as the rest of the league combined on Sunday. Fleener, not always a model of efficiency, had more receiving yards (144) than Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas combined (102).

There are times when your studs do what they're supposed to do and carry your team. There are others when this game is an absolute crapshoot, and you want to throw your computer through the window.

Still, despite the volatile nature of fantasy football, it's important to remain confident in your stars. While Week 11 was defined by unexpected performances, Week 12 will be defined by bounce-back weeks. That, and Josh Gordon.

Thursday, November 20	Time (ET)
Sunday, November 23	Time (ET)
Monday, November 24	Time (ET)
Kansas City at Miami	8:25 p.m.
NY Jets at Buffalo	1 p.m.
Cleveland at Atlanta	1 p.m.
Tampa Bay at Chicago	1 p.m.
Cincinnati at Houston	1 p.m.
Detroit at New England	1 p.m.
Green Bay at Minnesota	1 p.m.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	1 p.m.
Tennessee at Philadelphia	1 p.m.
St. Louis at San Diego	4:05 p.m.
Arizona at Seattle	4:05 p.m.
Miami at Denver	4:25 p.m.
Washington at San Francisco	4:25 p.m.
Dallas at NY Giants	8:30 p.m.
Baltimore at New Orleans	8:30 p.m.

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Aaron Rodgers, GB	300 PAS, 4 TD
2	Andrew Luck, IND	320 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
3	Jay Cutler, CHI	340 PAS, 2 TD, 2 INT
4	Drew Brees, NO	265 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
5	Peyton Manning, DEN	285 PAS, 2 TD
6	Tom Brady, NE	275 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
7	Andy Dalton, CIN	240 PAS, 1 TD
8	Colin Kaepernick, SF	230 PAS, 30 RUS, 2 TD
9	Tony Romo, DAL	255 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
10	Mark Sanchez, PHI	315 PAS, 3 TD, 2 INT
11	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	225 PAS, 40 RUS, 1 TD, 1 INT
12	Russell Wilson, SEA	190 PAS, 50 RUS, 1 TD
13	Matt Ryan, ATL	275 PAS, 1 TD
14	Matthew Stafford, DET	260 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
15	Eli Manning, NYG	275 PAS, 2 TD, 2 INT
16	Josh McCown, TB	310 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
17	Robert Griffin III, WAS	230 PAS, 35 RUS, 1 TD, 1 INT
18	Alex Smith, KC	195 PAS, 1 TD
19	Blake Bortles, JAX	285 PAS, 2 TD, 2 INT
20	Joe Flacco, BAL	265 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT

Sleeper: Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The idea of starting Josh McCown is a little frightening, largely because it means you're going to have to use a guy who wears a jean jacket to press conferences.

But as 4for4.com's John Paulsen noted, the 35-year-old quarterback has been quietly productive in limited action this season:

Moreover, in the two games since Lovie Smith controversially benched Mike Glennon in favor of McCown, the veteran has thrown for 589 yards and four touchdowns. While he isn't the most talented quarterback in the league, he is taking advantage (for the second year in a row) of having two large human beings at wide receiver. He and rookie Mike Evans, specifically, have proved to be fairly unstoppable the past two Sundays.

Can McCown be trusted on a week-to-week basis? Probably not. But he plays in an offense that needs to throw the ball a lot (fifth-highest passing play percentage in the NFL at 62.71), he has talented weapons, and he faces an injury-riddled Chicago Bears secondary that has been torched for much of the season.

In a Windy City reunion, McCown will put up low-end QB1 numbers.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Projections
1	DeMarco Murray, DAL	130 RUS, 25 REC
2	Jamaal Charles, KC	165 RUS, 1 TD
3	Matt Forte, CHI	95 RUS, 55 REC, 2 TD
4	Arian Foster, HOU	125 RUS, 30 REC, 1 TD
5	Eddie Lacy, GB	70 RUS, 40 REC
6	Mark Ingram, NO	80 RUS, 1 TD
7	Justin Forsett, BAL	75 RUS, 35 REC
8	Jeremy Hill, CIN	110 RUS, 1 TD
9	Denard Robinson, JAX	70 RUS, 20 REC
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI	105 RUS
11	Andre Ellington, ARI	110 RUS, 20 REC, 1 TD
12	Frank Gore, SF	80 RUS
13	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	75 RUS, 20 REC, 1 TD
14	Alfred Morris, WAS	70 RUS
15	Jonas Gray, NE	60 RUS
16	Tre Mason, STL	95 RUS, 1 TD
17	Chris Ivory, NYJ	40 RUS, 1 TD
18	Joique Bell, DET	70 RUS, 30 REC, 1 TD
19	Rashad Jennings, NYG	65 RUS, 30 REC
20	Ryan Mathews, SD	80 RUS, 1 TD
21	Lamar Miller, MIA	65 RUS, 20 REC
22	C.J. Anderson, DEN	75 RUS, 55 REC, 1 TD
23	Jerick McKinnon, MIN	45 RUS, 30 REC
24	Bishop Sankey, TEN	50 RUS
25	Isaiah Crowell, CLE	70 RUS
26	Fred Jackson, BUF	20 RUS, 45 REC, 1 TD
27	Steven Jackson, ATL	75 RUS, 1 TD
28	Charles Sims, TB	55 RUS, 30 REC
29	Darren Sproles, PHI	25 RUS, 25 REC, 1 TD
30	Shane Vereen, NE	15 RUS, 45 REC

Sleeper: Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

There aren't many players who are less exciting to own in the fantasy football world than Steven Jackson. Sure, he may not be on jean-jacket level, but he's averaging 3.6 yards per rush and has just one carry over 20 yards on the year.

Still, opportunity is a big part of the equation for fantasy football success, and the veteran gets plenty of that. He has received at least 18 touches in each of the last three weeks, he gets plenty of red-zone and goal-line looks and Antone Smith is now out for the season.

Against the Cleveland Browns, Jackson, who has produced low-end RB2 numbers on the year, will have the perfect chance to turn that kind of volume into his best week of the season. The Browns are hemorrhaging 4.6 yards per carry on the year and have been gashed by an array of non-star running backs as of late:

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD	Fan Pts
Denard Robinson, JAX	22	127	5.8	1	18.70
Darren McFadden, OAK	12	59	4.9	0	6.50
Bobby Rainey, TB	19	87	4.6	0	12.10
Jeremy Hill, CIN	12	55	4.6	0	4.10
Alfred Blue, HOU	36	156	4.3	0	15.6

There's still a little bit left in S-Jax's tank. You'll get proof of that in Week 12.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Jordy Nelson, GB	110 REC, 2 TD
2	A.J. Green, CIN	95 REC
3	Dez Bryant, DAL	115 REC, 1 TD
4	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	130 REC, 1 TD
5	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	95 REC, 1 TD
6	Randall Cobb, GB	85 REC
7	Mike Evans, TB	135 REC, 1 TD
8	T.Y. Hilton, IND	95 REC
9	Brandon Marshall, CHI	110 REC, 1 TD
10	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	85 REC, 1 TD
11	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	105 REC
12	Calvin Johnson, DET	85 REC, 1 TD
13	Julio Jones, ATL	80 REC, 1 TD
14	Sammy Watkins, BUF	100 REC, 1 TD
15	Josh Gordon, CLE	65 REC, 1 TD
16	Larry Fitzgerald, AZ	55 REC
17	Jordan Matthews, PHI	100 REC
18	Roddy White, ATL	65 REC
19	Vincent Jackson, TB	75 REC, 1 TD
20	Steve Smith, BAL	40 REC
21	Brandon LaFell, NE	75 REC
22	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	85 REC, 1 TD
23	Reggie Wayne, IND	80 REC, 1 TD
24	Andrew Hawkins, CLE	55 REC
25	Mohamed Sanu, CIN	65 REC, 1 TD
26	Doug Baldwin, SEA	50 REC
27	Cecil Shorts III, JAX	95 REC
28	Kenny Britt, STL	55 REC
29	Michael Crabtree, SF	60 REC
30	DeSean Jackson, WAS	85 REC, 1 TD
31	Andre Johnson, HOU	60 REC
32	Torrey Smith, BAL	75 REC, 1 TD
33	Jarvis Landry, MIA	50 REC
34	Keenan Allen, SD	75 REC
35	Eric Decker, NYJ	55 REC, 1 TD

Sleeper: Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Owning a New Orleans Saints wide receiver can be maddening. Drew Brees loves to spread the ball around, and outside of Jimmy Graham, no one is ever really guaranteed a consistent amount of targets.

However, the injury to rookie Brandin Cooks, who is expected to miss four to six weeks, means there is one fewer mouth to feed.

The likeliest candidate to see a major boost in production is second-year wideout Kenny Stills. Although he has been used mostly as a deep threat, the 22-year-old has caught 31 of his 42 targets for a tremendous catch rate of 73.8 percent. By comparison, Marques Colston's catch rate sits at 56.7 percent. 

As the stats suggest, and as WWL-870's Michael Detillier alluded to, Stills is building a tremendous rapport with Brees:

Stills has been a sneaky WR3 option since Week 7, averaging 4.2 catches, 58 yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game. Now, he's looking at more targets and a terrific matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who are without top cornerback Jimmy Smith.

There is definite risk here. But with Colston failing to produce consistently and Cooks sidelined, the Oklahoma product could be Brees' No. 2 target, a highly valuable role.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Jimmy Graham, NO	105 REC, 1 TD
2	Rob Gronkowski, NE	80 REC, 2 TD
3	Antonio Gates, SD	55 REC
4	Travis Kelce, KC	70 REC, 1 TD
5	Martellus Bennett, CHI	45 REC
6	Zach Ertz, PHI	40 REC, 1 TD
7	Larry Donnell, NYG	60 REC, 1 TD
8	Jason Witten, DAL	50 REC
9	Delanie Walker, TEN	35 REC
10	Jermaine Gresham, CIN	25 REC
11	Mychal Rivera, OAK	55 REC
12	Coby Fleener, IND	70 REC, 1 TD
13	Marcedes Lewis, JAX	45 REC, 1 TD
14	Owen Daniels, BAL	55 REC
15	Charles Clay, MIA	60 REC

Sleeper: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

With Allen Robinson out for the year, the Jacksonville Jaguars are hurting for consistent offensive options. Cecil Shorts is solid, but rookies Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee, who are next on the depth chart, have been all over the place this season.

Blake Bortles could use an extra veteran pass-catching presence, and Marcedes Lewis is just the player to fill that role.

In the first two games of the season, Lewis hauled in eight catches for 106 yards and a touchdown. Then he suffered a high ankle sprain, and he's been out ever since. But after Jacksonville's bye in Week 11, he's set to return against the Indianapolis Colts.

"I had two good weeks of practice," he said, via ESPN.com's Michael DiRocco. "And I’m ready to go."

Lewis isn't the most talented player on the planet, but he's a nice safety blanket for Bortles, and the Colts are the same defense that gave up 10 catches to Jermaine Gresham not long ago.

If you need a Julius Thomas replacement or are simply streaming tight ends, give Lewis a look.