Week 11 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

Those bettors up bright and early to fire off on the final NFL Week 11 Las Vegas odds are in a great spot.

Not only is the most up-to-date information available at this time of the week, a full week of research has dissected each and every matchup and the lines have shifted in various ways, opening up some great opportunities.

Make no mistake, the house is still at an advantage. It always is. But a thorough understanding of the movements for each game and the critical factors surrounding each one will put bettors in a position to make some serious coin.

The full slate has been digested, so go forth armed with knowledge and take down the house. Weaknesses abound in the Week 11 slate.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -3.5	MIN	Chicago looks lost at the moment, while Minnesota had a bye to prepare.
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3	CLE	See analysis below.
Seattle at Kansas City	KC -1	SEA	Seattle seems to be hitting its stride and will outmuscle Kansas City on the ground.
Atlanta at Carolina	ATL -1	CAR	Cam Newton can do enough on his own to move past one of the worst defenses in the league.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -7.5	NO	Cincinnati is lost at the moment, and the last thing the young and injured roster needs is a trip to the Dome.
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -7	WAS	The return of Robert Griffin III has Washington in a position to at least beat up on bad teams.
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -10.5	DEN	Denver continues to breeze through the schedule, while St. Louis has seemingly lost its will to compete.
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -4.5	SF	See analysis below.
Oakland at San Diego	SD -10.5	OAK	Derek Carr and Oakland have fight but not enough talent.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -6	GB	Philadelphia still has a solid offense, but a duel between Aaron Rodgers and Mark Sanchez is not going to end well.
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -1	DET	A bout between two defensive contenders defaults to quarterbacks, which in this case defaults to Detroit.
New England at Indianapolis	IND -3	NE	A bet against Tom Brady and New England right now is akin to throwing money in a fire.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	PIT -7	PIT	Pittsburgh has re-entered orbit but has not fallen enough to get caught napping by Tennessee.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 15.

Notable Odds to Utilize 

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Ryan Mallett vs. Brian Hoyer, the battle of the former New England Patriots backups, is not exactly the top matchup of the week. 

Then again, one Tom Brady is pretty excited about the whole ordeal, as captured by Christopher Price of WEEI.com:

From a betting standpoint, though, it makes for a pretty good time.

The Cleveland Browns are 6-3 and in first place in the AFC North. Not only is the team legit, it is very good at home, having lost just one game in front of a friendly crowd this season—a two-point defeat at the hands of AFC North rival Baltimore. 

That in itself is a major advantage but feel free to keep in mind that the rebuilding Houston Texans have four wins, which have come against teams with records that read as 3-6, 0-9, 5-5 and 2-7. By the sounds of comments from coach Bill O'Brien, the team will be without star back Arian Foster.

"He did some things [Friday], but I think at the end of the day, he and I will talk," O'Brien said, per ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli. "We'll do what's best for Arian Foster No. 1, and we'll do what's best for our team No. 2."

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Hoyer has by no means been exceptional this season, but he does take care of the football and has thrown 10 touchdowns to four interceptions. He should encounter few issues taking advantage of a Houston defense that ranks 29th against the pass, allowing 273.8 passing yards per game on average.

Houston has won just once since the beginning of October and is starting over at the most important position of all. Look for the Browns to make another statement about their legitimacy against a reeling opponent.

Prediction: Browns 27, Texans 20

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at New York Giants

The San Francisco 49ers, fresh off a season-saving overtime win in New Orleans, now get an opponent in the 3-6 New York Giants that only wishes it could pull off the same feat. 

Believe it or not, the main issue in New York is not quarterback Eli Manning, either. After a bad start to the season in which he tossed five interceptions over the course of his first four games, Manning has thrown just one in his last five outings.

Scott Eklund/Associated Press

The issue in New York is a miserable run defense that ranks dead last in the NFL, allowing an average of more than 144 yards per game. Marshawn Lynch in Seattle is a great back, but 140 yards and four touchdowns last week against the Giants is a gaudy line, even for him.

It stands to reason, then, that the 49ers' trio of leading rushers—including quarterback Colin Kaepernick—will have no issues slicing through a unit that has seemingly thrown in the towel:

NAME	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
Frank Gore	139	553	4.0	2
Colin Kaepernick	58	298	5.1	0
Carlos Hyde	54	214	4.0	3

Speaking of Kaepernick, he has come under fire for his 14-of-32 line last week, but it is important to keep in mind that he has still completed 61.9 percent of his passes this year for 2,166 yards and 13 touchdowns to five interceptions.

A date with the 25th-ranked pass defense should silence the critics rather quickly.

The Giants offense is efficient and will get starter Rashad Jennings back. But without Victor Cruz and a consistent offensive line that has allowed 20 sacks, the 49ers should run away with this one.

Prediction: 49ers 30, Giants 17 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Dallas, New York Jets, Jacksonville and Baltimore on bye.