What to Expect from Alfred Blue and NFL Week 11's Top RB Fill-Ins

The fantasy football playoffs are quickly approaching and Week 11 might make or break your season if you are a fantasy owner with a team currently sitting at .500. With a bye week for DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster was projected to be the top fantasy back this week—that is, until the news broke that he was unlikely to suit up due to a groin injury. Whether you are looking for a bye-week fill-in or are desperate to find a replacement due to injury, there are plenty of plug-and-play names out there for this week—some of whom may still be available on your waiver wire.

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Alfred Blue

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Arian Foster (groin) is questionable and still remains a game-time decision, according to head coach Bill O’Brien, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter said on SportsCenter that Foster is unlikely to play this week against the Cleveland Browns. Jayson Braddock of Sportstalk 790 AM in Houston was the first to report Foster would not play.

That puts Alfred Blue—a sixth-round rookie from LSU—in position to make his second career start. Filling in for Foster in Week 3 at the Giants, Blue ran 13 times for 78 yards and added a 10-yard reception.

The Browns rank 28th in the NFL against the run, having allowed 134.2 rush yards per game, so this looks like a good fantasy matchup for Blue at first glance. The Browns have been better against the rush as of late, however, and held Jeremy Hill to 55 yards on 12 rushes on Thursday Night Football a week ago, on the heels of his 24-154-2 game vs. Jacksonville.

Cleveland Browns Rushing Defense

	Att.	Yds.	Avg.	YPG	TD	W-L
First Six Games	186	933	5.02	155.5	7	3-3
Last Three Games	69	275	3.99	91.6	0	3-0

The Texans rank third in the league in rush attempts per game (31.2), and their game plan is unlikely to change with quarterback Ryan Mallett making his first career start. Blue is a power back and a good bet for 20 touches and a touchdown, making him a RB2 this week against the Browns.

Week 11 Projection: 19 carries, 75 yards, TD; 2 receptions, 17 yards

 

Theo Riddick

Despite a questionable tag, Reggie Bush (ankle) has not practiced this week and beat writer Tim Twentyman reports it is unlikely he will play Sunday at Arizona.

Joique Bell is still going to see the lion’s share of carries, but Riddick has some PPR appeal given how he has performed as a receiver in the Lions' two previous games without Bush this season:

Theo Riddick Game Log

		Rushing					Receiving
Wk.	Opp.	Att.	Yds.	Avg.	TD		Rec.	Yds.	Avg.	TD
6	MIN	3	6	2.0	0		5	75	15.0	1
8	ATL	3	5	1.7	0		8	74	9.3	1

The Cardinals boast the NFL’s third-ranked rushing defense, but the fantasy appeal of Riddick comes not on the ground but due to his ability to thrive in the short-passing game. He has made highlight-reel receptions as part of the Lions' game-winning drives in each of their last two games (vs. Miami and against Atlanta).

Despite his receiving potential, Riddick is not recommended as more than a flex play in PPR leagues. With Bell handling feature back duties, Riddick is unlikely to receive more than 10 touches, which falls in line with his range from his two previous games in the absence of Bush (eight touches at Minnesota, 11 touches against Atlanta).

Week 11 Projection: 4 carries, 13 yards; 6 receptions, 51 yards

 

C.J. Anderson

The smart money is on Anderson leading Broncos running backs in snaps and touches this Sunday at St. Louis, although the situation remains in flux with Montee Ball returning from a groin injury. Ronnie Hillman, who has been the Broncos lead back with Ball sidelined, is out with a foot injury.

Ball has not played since Week 5 and it would make sense for the Broncos to limit his workload in his first game back. He also failed to impress this season as the starter, averaging 3.1 yards per carry on 55 attempts. Bleacher Report’s Cecil Lammey compared this season’s production between Ball and Anderson:

Broncos.com columnist Andrew Mason wrote Anderson is expected to start at running back this week: “All signs point to the Broncos playing the 'hot hand,' and that would be Anderson, fresh off a performance in which he racked up 163 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in Oakland.”

The obvious caveat is that nearly one-third of those 163 yards came on a ridiculous catch-and-run, but the Broncos rode him after Hillman’s foot injury and Anderson showed a complete skill set as a hard runner, capable receiver and pass protector.

Rotoworld’s Evan Silva further examines his outlook for Week 11 and moving forward: “If Anderson pass protects adequately and capitalizes on his anticipated opportunity, it would not surprise me if he maintained Denver's lead back job for the rest of this year. Anderson is physically built to carry the load.”

Anderson has a favorable matchup this week against the Rams' 24th-ranked rushing defense, and the Broncos should build an early lead behind their second-ranked scoring offense. That could lead to a high volume of second-half rushes, even with Ball lurking as well.

Week 11 Projection: 13 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD; 2 receptions, 17 yards

 

Jeremy Hill

Giovani Bernard (hip/clavicle) is out, so Hill will make his third consecutive start in Week 11 at New Orleans. The Bengals are coming off a poor performance on Thursday Night Football against Cleveland, and Hill rushed only 12 times for 55 yards while being benched for a quarter after his first career fumble.

Hill is averaging 4.7 yards per rush this season, 10th among running backs (min. 80 attempts), so his fantasy owners will be looking for an uptick in carries this week—similar to his Week 9 usage when he had career highs in attempts (24), yards (154) and touchdowns (two) against Jacksonville.

The Saints have allowed 106.8 rushing yards per game, 11th in the NFL, but they have given up the 12th most fantasy points to running backs this season, a number inflated because they have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns—one of only six teams in double-digits.

The problem here, as Rotoworld’s Evan Silva points out, is the Bengals who are a touchdown underdog, according to OddsShark, and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has gone away from the running game when they fall behind early: “The Week 11 worry for Jeremy Hill is that this game sets up perfectly for Jackson to abandon the run early for a second straight week. …Hill carries plenty of risk in that he could throw up another clunker if the Saints run away on the scoreboard.”

Hill should be a borderline RB1 this week, and the projection below is conservative as long as the Bengals execute their game plan.

Week 11 Projection: 17 carries, 74 yards, 1 TD; 2 receptions, 15 yards