NFL Picks Week 11: Odds and Over-Under Advice Before Sunday Kick-off

Week 11 offers something for everyone. Like shootouts? The NFL's got you covered. More into defensive showdowns? A couple of marquee matches drive right down your alley.

There's no need to quarrel about whether offensive blizzards or low-scoring stalemates offer more subsistence. This isn't an old western; there's plenty of room for both to float everyone's fancy.

Bettors will work tirelessly to identify which column each game falls under. Nothing gives fans fits quite like an over-under line, which ebbs and flows often with the actual outcome already wrapped up during the closing minutes. It's like NFL coaches don't even care how their prevent defense with a 28-point lead affects the line.

In football and life, there's no such thing as a sure bet. These bets, however, at least make sense on paper. 

Away	Home	Pick ATS*	Over/Under*
Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	ATL -1.5	Over 47
Minnesota Vikings	Chicago Bears	CHI -2.5	Over 46
Houston Texans	Cleveland Browns	CLE -3.5	Under 40.5
Seattle Seahawks	Kansas City Chiefs	SEA Even	Under 42
Cincinnati Bengals	New Orleans Saints	CIN +7	Over 51
San Francisco 49ers	New York Giants	SF -4	Over 44.5
Denver Broncos	St. Louis Rams	DEN -9.5	Under 51
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	WAS -7	Over 45.5
Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	SD -10	Over 44.5
Philadelphia Eagles	Green Bay Packers	GB -6	Over 54.5
Detroit Lions	Arizona Cardinals	DET +1	Under 41
New England Patriots	Indianapolis Colts	NE +3	Over 57
Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans	PIT -7	Under 46.5

Take the Under: Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (42)

Only the New York Jets have amassed fewer passing yards per game than the Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs. Neither side has any downfield passing threats, instead relying on a star running back and premier defense.

Put the Chiefs and Seahawks together and a physical, old-school slobber-knocker with little scoring will unfold on Sunday.

The Seahawks have posted 68 points over the past two weeks, but that came against two bumbling defenses in the Oakland Raiders and New York Giants. In the midst of career-worst production through the air, Russell Wilson won't make much happen against the No. 1 passing defense.

At least not with his arm. Wilson has taken matters into his own legs more and more, compiling 500 rushing yards this season. His 107 yards against the Giants put him on a short list of dual-threat options, per ESPN Stats & Info.

But such success from a quarterback is tough to sustain. He followed his first 100-yard rushing effort with 12 the following game, and he tallied 35 to encore his second such performance. The Giants also don't have Justin Houston roaming the edge.

Some may credit Kansas City's recent schedule (St. Louis Rams, Jets and Buffalo Bills) for its hot streak, but Andy Reid's squad hasn't surrendered more than 26 points in a single game this season. That includes slates against the Denver Broncos (24 points allowed), New England Patriots (14) and the San Diego Chargers (20).

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Offensively, they do enough to get by. No receiver has scored a touchdown yet, and a Seattle defense that allows 3.2 yards per carry will not let Jamaal Charles destroy it. No team is lighting up the box score in this clash of defensive wits.

Seattle's rushing prowess will propel it to a close victory on the road but don't expect a beating akin to last week's dominance over the Giants. This is more of a 20-17 game. 

Take the Over: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (47)

What do you get when you pit two bottom-10 defenses against each other? Points.

Following a promising 2-0 start, the Carolina Panthers have yielded 32.5 points per contest, culminating in a 45-21 Monday night blowout against the Philadelphia Eagles. A once stout defense now ranks No. 23 against both the pass and run.

Football Outsiders appraises them as an even worse defense, placing them at No. 29 in defensive DVOA.

Given an appetizing matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons produced 27 points on 322 total yards. While Matt Ryan's 219 yards and one passing touchdown were underwhelming against the NFL's second-worst passing defense, a wide-open Devin Hester did drop a potential 19-yard touchdown.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Ryan has slowed down after a sizzling start, but if Mark Sanchez can torch the Panthers, he'll do well enough.

Carolina's offense actually presents the bigger concern of meeting the 47-point line. During the past four games, it scored a combined 57 points as Cam Newton completed 52.3 percent of his passes with 6.06 yards per attempt.

Elsa/Getty Images

The fourth-year pro knows he is struggling, as he admitted this week, per ESPN.com's David Newton.

"I'll be the first person to admit I haven't been playing great," Newton said. "I know that. I take that responsibility, and I will tell you that things will be better in the future." 

But if there's a team Carolina can manufacture some points against, it's Atlanta, who places last against the pass and 24th stopping the run. If not, the Panthers should at least pad the numbers with some late points. Even when the Eagles stymied them last week, Newton and Kelvin Benjamin connected for two garbage-time touchdowns.

Both teams are stuck with losing records, but they're alive in an abysmal NFC South. Each side should exceed 20 on the scoreboard, with the Falcons pushing for 30 if they stop settling for so many field goals.