NFL Week 11 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

The infancy of NFL Week 11 has already been kind to those who feel safe rolling with the the favorites in NFL matchups. 

Thanks to Miami's win over Buffalo on Thursday Night Football, favorites are already up one on the underdogs. Favorites are favorites for a reason but keep in mind that the right underdog plays at the right time can be much more lucrative for those who want to make headway on NFL picks.

A number of favorites and underdogs line the Week 11 schedule, although some have shifted over the course of the week. To keep up to date with the lines, below is a look at the full slate and some of the notable teams to key in on over the days ahead.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -3.5	MIN	Chicago looks lost at the moment, while Minnesota had a bye to prepare.
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3	CLE	Cleveland is legit and at home while Houston experiments under center. Easy.
Seattle at Kansas City	KC -1	SEA	Seattle seems to be hitting its stride and will outmuscle Kansas City on the ground.
Atlanta at Carolina	ATL -1	CAR	Cam Newton can do enough on his own to move past one of the worst defenses in the league.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -7.5	NO	Cincinnati is lost at the moment, and the last thing the young and injured roster needs is a trip to the Dome.
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -7	WAS	The return of Robert Griffin III has Washington in a position to at least beat up on bad teams.
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -10.5	DEN	Denver continues to breeze through the schedule, while St. Louis has seemingly lost its will to compete.
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -4.5	SF	New York will have no answer for the San Francisco ground game, so long as the staff actually uses it.
Oakland at San Diego	SD -10.5	OAK	See analysis below.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -6	GB	Philadelphia still has a solid offense, but a duel between Aaron Rodgers and Mark Sanchez is not going to end well.
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -1	DET	A bout between two defensive contenders defaults to quarterbacks, which in this case defaults to Detroit.
New England at Indianapolis	IND -3	NE	See analysis below.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	PIT -7	PIT	Pittsburgh has re-entered orbit but has not fallen enough to get caught napping by Tennessee.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 14.

Notable Favorite: Oakland at San Diego (-10.5)

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The San Diego Chargers have something to prove.

Philip Rivers leads one of the NFL's coldest teams at the moment. Losers of three straight before a bye week, the team's last loss was a 37-0 embarrassment that helped to make some recent history, as ESPN's Ed Werder points out:

At least on paper, few better scenarios exist for a team on the hunt for a comeback than a date with the winless Oakland Raiders.

Dead in the infancy of a rebuild, the Raiders rank last in terms of rushing, 24th in passing and allow 130.9 yards per game on the ground. That sounds especially bad with the Chargers finally getting starting running back Ryan Mathews back from injury. 

Then again, a divisional contest is anything but easy, regardless of how both teams have played leading up to the meeting.

The Raiders are led by rookie quarterback Derek Carr, who has thrown for 1,903 yards and 13 touchdowns to nine interceptions this season. Back in Week 6 against these very same Chargers, he threw for 282 yards and four scores.

San Diego hardly escaped with a 31-28 win.

Now, San Diego is at home this time around and does tout a top-10 pass defense, but the collapse before the bye saw Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill gun his way to 288 yards and three scores with relative ease.

A lack of pressure and consistency going into a divisional matchup is bad news, even against a rookie quarterback. Las Vegas likes San Diego a lot but bettors may want to reconsider.

Prediction: Chargers 35, Raiders 30

Notable Underdog: New England at Indianapolis (-3)

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Tom Brady is an underdog.

Really, that statement right there could have ended the analysis. A bet against Brady is foolish in pretty much any setting but especially when it comes against Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts.

Luck is one of the best players in the league and has yet to hit an enormous ceiling, but he has played Brady twice and lost by a combined score of 102-46. That is certainly not all on Luck but little has changed—there is little in the way of a run game to support him and his defense ranks 27th against the pass.

A leaky pass defense is the last thing Indianapolis needs against Brady, home game or not. Brady has been on fire since a humbling at the hands of Kansas City some weeks ago:

OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	TD	INT
vs CIN	23	35	292	65.7	2	0
at BUF	27	37	361	73.0	4	0
vs NYJ	20	37	261	54.1	3	0
vs CHI	30	35	354	85.7	5	0
vs DEN	33	53	333	62.3	4	1

On the flip side, Luck has to deal with the league's No. 14 pass defense, which is led by Darrelle Revis. Luck has been great this season, as noted by his 3,085 yards and 26 touchdowns to nine interceptions. But to ask him to overcome the Patriots on his own may still be asking too much.

"There definitely is a mental challenge to facing the Patriots," Luck said, per ESPN.com's Mike Wells. "At the same time, I don't think you want to psyche yourself out and over think things. You've still got to go out there and play football."

Given New England's recent run of elite form behind the arm of Brady, not to mention Indianapolis' habitual folding against elite offenses, this one looks like an ideal upset to bet. 

Prediction: Patriots 35, Colts 28 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Dallas, New York Jets, Jacksonville and Baltimore on bye.