NFL Week 11 Picks: Final Predictions and Over-Under Odds Before Thursday Night

Mathematically speaking, neither the Buffalo Bills nor the Miami Dolphins will be out of the playoff hunt after Thursday night, but their matchup certainly has the feel of an elimination game. Fighting back from 5-5 in a crowded AFC postseason picture would be an uphill battle.

From an over-under perspective, both teams are coming off frustrating losses that saw them surrender leads late. They also combined to score just 29 points in those games. Add the short week and some banged-up offensive stars on the Buffalo side, and under is the pick.

The added unpredictability of Thursday night contests means it's not one of the top choices for Week 11, though. Let's check out a complete list of predictions for the week ahead followed by a deeper dive into those top selections.

Week 11 Over-Under Picks

Date	Road	Home	Line	Pick
Nov. 13	Bills	Dolphins	42	Under
Nov. 16	Vikings	Bears	46	Over
Nov. 16	Texans	Browns	41.5	Over
Nov. 16	Falcons	Panthers	46.5	Under
Nov. 16	Bengals	Saints	50.5	Under
Nov. 16	Buccaneers	Redskins	45	Under
Nov. 16	Broncos	Rams	50.5	Over
Nov. 16	49ers	Giants	44	Over
Nov. 16	Seahawks	Chiefs	42.5	Over
Nov. 16	Raiders	Chargers	45	Under
Nov. 16	Lions	Cardinals	41	Over
Nov. 16	Eagles	Packers	55	Under
Nov. 16	Patriots	Colts	57.5	Over
Nov. 17	Steelers	Titans	46.5	Under

Top Selections

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers (Under)

An offense with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White and a well-rounded backfield rotation should be among the league's best. Instead, the Falcons rank in the middle of the pack in points per game. Add a struggling defense, and they are heading toward a second straight down campaign.

Things aren't going much better for the Panthers. They rank 25th in total offense. While a porous offensive line and a lack of playmakers are definitely factors, Cam Newton also hasn't been his usual dynamic self. ESPN Stats & Info highlighted his passing woes:

Despite the fact that both teams are well below .500, this is actually a key game given the overall weakness of the NFC South. But it's hard to imagine either offense is going to suddenly turn it around. "Sloppy" has been the buzzword so far, and that's likely to continue.

Neither defense has been particularly reliable, either. That's why it's an average line despite the underperforming offenses on both sides. That said, given the way Newton looked Monday night, there simply aren't enough positive signs to think this game will turn into a high-scoring affair.

Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals (Over)

Calvin Johnson returned from injury last week. The star wideout immediately showed what he brings to the Lions offense with a 50-yard touchdown grab, rising above the secondary to haul in the pass. His presence at full strength will be a major boon for Detroit the rest of the way.

The key question in this game is Drew Stanton, who steps in for the injured Carson Palmer. What the Cardinals need him to do is continue the trend of protecting the football he's displayed in limited duty so far this season. Incomplete is better than intercepted, even if it means a lower completion rate.

One person who doesn't seemed concerned about the switch is Arizona head coach Bruce Arians. He's given off a sense of confidence ever since Palmer's status was confirmed. Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com passed along some comments from the coach:

"

Every guy in that room knows that he'll be ultimately prepared and more than capable of beating everybody that we play. The Frisco game was outstanding. The Giants game, he was fairly good, but the Frisco game he was outstanding.

That win right there cemented him in our locker room.

"

The Lions should be able to move the ball pretty consistently against Arizona's 30th-ranked pass defense. So the question is whether Stanton can respond. Since he has ample talent around him, the odds are good that he'll play well enough to ensure the game goes over.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans (Under)

Heinz Field isn't exactly known as an offensive paradise, but it's been working wonders for the Steelers as of late. They averaged over 40 points during a recent three-game homestand. The bad news heading into this week is they have put up just 13 points per game in their last three road contests.

Despite having a solid backfield duo in Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, the offense relies heavily on Ben Roethlisberger. This week, he'll face a challenge in a Titans defense that ranks 10th in sacks and 11th in passing yards allowed.

As for the Titans offense, well, it remains a mess. Coming out of a bye week, the Titans managed just seven points against the Baltimore Ravens last week. None of the players in the quarterback rotation, Zach Mettenberger being the latest, has worked out, and the running game hasn't been any more reliable.

Ultimately, the Steelers came back down to Earth offensively last week, and the Titans defense should provide a good amount of resistance. That means the Tennessee offense would likely need to score in the mid-20s to cover the line, and it's hard to see that happening.