NFL Week 11 Picks: Predicting the Winners of All 14 Matchups

Like an NFL team off a bye week, bettors have no excuses in Week 11, tough slate or not. 

Week 10 was a down week. Bettors know that means there was plenty of coin to be made thanks to predictable outcomes.

Week 11 is quite the opposite.

Like top contenders, top bettors will come out firing on all cylinders after a bit of an easy week and pick apart Week 11. It is quite the tricky beast, though, as plenty of upset potential could ruin the week in a hurry for those who take a misstep in the minefield.

The key, of course, is knowing which upsets to ride.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Buffalo at Miami (Thurs., Nov. 13)	MIA -4	MIA	Kyle Orton will not have enough on a short week to overcome one of the league's best pass defenses.
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -4.5	MIN	Chicago looks lost at the moment, while Minnesota had a bye to prepare.
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3	CLE	Cleveland is legit and at home while Houston experiments under center. Easy.
Seattle at Kansas City	SEA -1	SEA	Seattle seems to be hitting its stride and will outmuscle Kansas City on the ground.
Atlanta at Carolina	CAR -2.5	CAR	Cam Newton can do enough on his own to move past one of the worst defenses in the league.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -7.5	NO	Cincinnati is lost at the moment, and the last thing the young and injured roster needs is a trip to the Dome.
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -6	WAS	The return of Robert Griffin III has Washington in a position to at least beat up on bad teams.
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -10.5	DEN	Denver continues to breeze through the schedule, while St. Louis has seemingly lost its will to compete.
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -3	SF	New York will have no answer for the San Francisco ground game if the staff actually uses it.
Oakland at San Diego	SD -11	OAK	Derek Carr and Oakland have fight but not enough talent.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -4.5	GB	Philadelphia still has a solid offense, but a duel between Aaron Rodgers and Mark Sanchez is not going to end well.
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -3	DET	See analysis below.
New England at Indianapolis	IND -2	NE	See analysis below.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	PIT -4	PIT	Pittsburgh has re-entered orbit but has not fallen enough to get caught napping by Tennessee.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 5 p.m. ET, Nov. 10. 

Top Early-Week Upset Picks

Detroit at Arizona (-3)

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

This is why early-week lines are so great. Arizona looks like the best team in the league and has clearly convinced Las Vegas of it, but the line was made before it was revealed that starting quarterback Carson Palmer will miss the rest of the season with an injury, per Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com.

Perhaps Vegas believes the words of Arizona coach Bruce Arians, as captured by the NFL's Twitter account:

Bettors might want to be more open to the idea of an upset Sunday.

Not only do the Lions come in second overall against the run with an average of 71.3 yards allowed per game on the ground, but they also quietly come in third with an average of just 212.1 yards allowed through the air.

The highlight of the season for the surprising unit was holding Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (the guy who just dropped six touchdowns in a half on Chicago) to just 162 yards and a touchdown in a win.

Bettors also know about the Lions' elite passing attack, but they may not know that the Cardinals rank 30th against the pass. That is quite pathetic considering the last time the unit faced a quality quarterback was back in Week 8, when Philadelphia's Nick Foles threw for 411 yards and two scores.

Now, this one does come in Arizona. Drew Stanton has a ton of weapons to work with in a potent vertical-based attack, but keep in mind he is a career backup who has never completed better than 58.0 percent of his passes in a season.

By way of its defense and a few big plays through the air, Detroit will pull off the upset. Jump on the line before it shifts.

Prediction: Lions 23, Cardinals 13

New England at Indianapolis (-2)

At first glance, the Indianapolis Colts being favored at home over the New England Patriots makes sense. 

Not only are both teams coming off a bye, but New England's two losses this season came on the road in blowouts at the hands of Miami and Kansas City.

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Still, this is a Patriots team that has turned it up a notch in recent weeks. Since that loss to Kansas City, the Patriots have yet to lose, and Tom Brady has thrown 18 touchdowns to just one interception in the process.

Brady's elite form, which most recently allowed him to outgun Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos 43-21, is bad news for a Colts defense that ranks 27th this year with an average of 263.6 yards per game through the air.

As ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss notes, Brady and the offense are already prepared to get the ball out early and often to take advantage of a shaky secondary that is weak if the rush does not get to the quarterback:

Andrew Luck (3,085 yards, 26 touchdowns, nine interceptions) is the future of the NFL, but even he has been unable to overcome his defense at times—namely against elite offenses such as Denver, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the three teams that have upended the Colts this season.

For Brady, Luck is just the next name to scratch off the list this season. New England is too hot at the moment to be contained, whereas the one-man show in Indianapolis has its limits. This contest is one of them. Bettors will want to jump on this one before it potentially shifts too.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Colts 28

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Dallas, NY Jets, Jacksonville and Baltimore on bye.