NFL Week 11 Picks: Early Predictions for Every Game

After a bit of a bye week thanks to predictable results birthed from a predictable slate, things pick back up a notch in the difficulty department when it comes to NFL Week 11 picks.

Sure, there are some clunkers. Denver over St. Louis seems obvious enough. So does San Diego over Oakland. It is a short cakewalk, though, thanks to games such as Seattle-Kansas City and New England-Indianapolis.

Some things never change, though, as it remains a great idea to pounce on opening lines as early as possible. With that in mind, an early look at the Week 11 slate, how Las Vegas feels about it and more are outlined below.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Buffalo at Miami (Thurs., Nov. 13)	MIA -4	MIA	Kyle Orton will not have enough on a short week to overcome one of the league's best pass defenses.
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -4.5	MIN	Chicago looks lost at the moment, while Minnesota had a bye to prepare.
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3	CLE	Cleveland is legit and at home while Houston experiments under center. Easy.
Seattle at Kansas City	SEA -1	SEA	Seattle seems to be hitting its stride and will outmuscle Kansas City on the ground.
Atlanta at Carolina	CAR -2.5	CAR	Cam Newton can do enough on his own to move past one of the worst defenses in the league.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -7.5	NO	See analysis below.
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -6	WAS	The return of Robert Griffin III has Washington in a position to at least beat up on bad teams.
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -10.5	DEN	Denver continues to breeze through the schedule, while St. Louis has seemingly lost its will to compete.
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -3	SF	New York will have no answer for the San Francisco ground game, so long as the staff actually uses it.
Oakland at San Diego	SD -11	OAK	Derek Carr and Oakland have fight but not enough talent.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -4.5	GB	See analysis below.
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -3	DET	A bout between two defensive contenders defaults to quarterbacks, which in this case defaults to Detroit.
New England at Indianapolis	IND -2	NE	A bet against Tom Brady and New England right now is akin to throwing money in a fire.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	N/A	PIT	Pittsburgh has re-entered orbit but has not fallen enough to get caught napping by Tennessee.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 9 p.m. ET, Nov. 9. 

Early Odds to Bet

Cincinnati at New Orleans (-7.5)

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Stick a fork in the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincinnati went out Thursday and got blown away by the Cleveland Browns. It was not just a home game. It was not just an affair on prime time. It was not just a battle for first place in the AFC North. It was all of those things balled into a bitter, violent in-state rivalry.

And the Bengals folded like a house of cards at the first sign of wind.

After, players were not so kind to each other when speaking with the media. Safety George Iloka was not too fond of quarterback Andy Dalton's play.

"It's like damn here we go again," said Iloka, per Paul Dehner Jr. of Cincinnati.com. "That's just how I feel. He threw a pick early, here we go again. Let's knuckle up it's going to be a dogfight."

Granted, New Orleans lost in overtime this past weekend at home, but the crux of the problem for Cincinnati—which should entice the likes of those making early picks—is the play of Dalton.

Dalton relies on the talent around him to find success, but when he is off, there is nothing said talent can do. Over the course of his last four games, the former TCU star has thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions and completed just 30.3 percent of his passes last week.

Against an offense led by Drew Brees that entered last week third in passing and seventh in rushing, Dalton and Co. are sure to fall behind early and will not be able to keep pace. Cincinnati has taken to the road three times this year, with one being a win over familiar divisional foe Baltimore and the other two being 43-17 and 27-0 losses.

In a loud dome against an elite offense and a defense that entered last weekend ranking in the top 10 against the rush, the spread from Vegas may need a little padding.

Prediction: Saints 28, Bengals 17

Philadelphia at Green Bay (-4.5)

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

This one could get ugly in a hurry.

With all due respect to Mark Sanchez and the Philadelphia Eagles, the thought of that offense being able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers at home is laughable at this point.

Granted, these are opening lines, hence why it is such a great idea to be the first person to the front of the picks line each week.

Rodgers had himself a game on Sunday night, throwing for 315 yards and six touchdowns in the first half of an eventual 55-14 win over the hapless Chicago Bears.

Philadelphia is not hapless, but it is on the road. Away from home, the Eagles have gone just .500 this season, whereas the Packers have yet to lose at Lambeau Field. To make matters worse, the Eagles entered last weekend ranked 22nd against the pass and 20th against the rush, as the unit has failed to make notable strides in the past year and change.

Kelly's defense has yet to truly encounter an elite passing attack, either. On the flip side, the Green Bay defense very quietly ranks among the top 10 pass defenses in the league, or at least will presumably continue doing so after Sunday night's blowout win.

The curveball here is the fact Green Bay entered the weekend ranked dead last against the rush, something Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy is certainly capable of taking advantage of on a down-by-down basis.

But this curve relies on Rodgers and Co. not jumping out to an early lead and negating the Eagles' ground game entirely. A bet with that is quite bold, to put it lightly. Based on Green Bay's current form, 4.5 is a laughable line, and the outright pick is perhaps the easiest of the week.

Prediction: Packers 35, Eagles 21

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Dallas, NY Jets, Jacksonville and Baltimore on bye.