NFL Picks Week 10: Home Favorites Guaranteed to Cover Spread

One thing that separates contenders from pretenders is the ability to take care of business at home. Winning on the road is essential in the NFL, but success starts by winning in your own building.

Week 10 is the time for home favorites to shine. It's easy to get caught up in spreads when it comes to home teams, though most of the time the lines are warranted. Teams have a comfort level in front of their own fans that makes it easier to run an offense and disrupt an opponent's timing. 

As the final odds come in for this week's games, it's an opportune time to highlight which favorites will protect their turf in grand fashion. 

Game, Spread	Pick
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)	Ravens, 27-14
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (Pick 'Em)	Bills, 20-17
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (-2.5)	Lions, 23-17
Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars	Cowboys, 24-10
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)	Saints, 27-24
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at New York Jets	Steelers, 31-17
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers, 27-23
Denver Broncos (-11.5) at Oakland Raiders	Broncos, 35-17
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7)	Cardinals, 24-16
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-10)	Seahawks, 27-20
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)	Packers, 34-24
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)	Eagles, 31-23

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)

Rob Carr/Getty Images

While there are no sure things in the NFL, a game against Tennessee looks about as safe a bet as anything outside of Oakland or Jacksonville. The Titans are a mess on both sides of the ball with no stability at quarterback. 

Despite that futility, this would seem like a spot where Tennessee is at least able to cover a hefty spread. According to Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean, the Titans have covered in five of their last six games against Baltimore:

However, the combination of Tennessee's 24th-ranked defense and Baltimore's balanced offensive attack, which includes Steve Smith and Torrey Smith averaging 15.9 yards per reception between them, is a disaster waiting to happen. 

The games Baltimore has lost this season have come against Andy Dalton (twice), Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger. Even though Dalton had one of the worst games by a quarterback in recent memory against Cleveland on Thursday night, he's still capable of being a quality starter. Luck and Roethlisberger are special talents. 

This week will be a breeze for the Ravens by comparison with rookie Zach Mettenberger under center. It doesn't hurt that Baltimore averages 121.1 yards per game on the ground while Tennessee allows 134.8 rushing yards. 

Nothing is going right for Tennessee this season, so don't expect a dramatic turnaround against a quality Baltimore team. 

Ravens 27, Titans 14

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Think of how far the AFC East has come in the span of five weeks. New England's "dynasty" was over after losing to Kansas City and it seemed like whoever won the division would be lucky to win nine games. Now, the Patriots look like the best team in the conference, while Buffalo and Miami are sitting at 5-3. 

Miami, in particular, has taken its game to another level. The Dolphins have a better point differential (plus-60) than any team in the NFC and shut out a quality San Diego offense last week. All seems right with their world, right?

It's tempting to say yes, but the NFL is a funny game. It also doesn't help that the Dolphins haven't faced a defense like the one they will see in Detroit. Ndamukong Suh has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Lions defensive line, as Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel pointed out on Twitter:

Adding to Miami's misery this week is the expected return of Calvin Johnson, via SportsCenter's official Twitter account:

Detroit's offense has been inconsistent this season, thanks in large part to the absence of Megatron. Head coach Jim Caldwell talked about how much Johnson means to the offensive game plan, via the Detroit Lions' official Twitter:

The difference between the Lions this year and in previous years under Jim Schwartz is they are finding ways to win games. It's not always pretty, but you don't need style points to make the playoffs. They are going to get better and more dynamic with Johnson back. Golden Tate can go back to his natural slot position, opening things up even more. 

It will be a close game because the Dolphins aren't pushovers. There just isn't enough for Miami on either side of the ball to pull off an upset. 

Lions 23, Dolphins 16

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

It's almost too easy to pick on the Bears at this point, especially when they are playing the Packers. Green Bay has been Jay Cutler's kryptonite, which is dangerous considering how well the rest of the league has fared against Chicago's quarterback this league. 

In fact, we have video evidence of how bad Cutler has been against the Packers in his career, via Vegard Vangstad on Vimeo:

When you combine Cutler's futility in this rivalry with Aaron Rodgers' success, it's scary to think how bad this game could get for the Bears. The Packers quarterback just torched Chicago's defense by going 22-for-28 with 302 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-17 romp in Week 4. 

Not even Green Bay's league-worst run defense will be enough to get Chicago a win. Matt Forte had his best rushing game of the season against the Packers with 122 yards and 49 more as a receiver. It didn't make a difference.

Now, the Bears enter this game having lost four of their last five and are allowing 36.8 points per game in those losses. For all the talent Chicago has at the skill positions, it doesn't mean much if the rest of the roster isn't very good and the defense can't stop anyone.

Packers 34, Bears 24

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