NFL Picks: Week 10 Against the Spread

A wise man once told me, "Live a life of progress, not perfection." 

Last week, I wound up correctly picking a game. Considering I blanked the week prior, that's progress! 

This time around, I hope to continue that trend and give pro bettor and founder of Big Time Sharps, Bill Davis, a run for his gambling money. 

However, considering that the gods have not been with me lately, I've decided to be counterintuitive: I'm going to go against my instincts and see what happens. (When you're 1-7 in your past eight picks, it can't really hurt to start throwing crap against the wall, right?)

So with that in mind, start clicking away, with the lines courtesy of ESPN.com. Who will take the crown this weekend? Will it be Davis or Bizarro Glauser?

Last Week

Davis: 1-3

Glauser: 1-3

Total

Davis: 2-6

Glauser: 1-7

Davis Pick No. 1: Tennessee Titans (+10.5) over Baltimore Ravens

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

"The Ravens lead the Titans in nearly every offensive statistical category. Baltimore offensively passes for 249.6 yards per game and rushes for 121.1 yards per game, while Tennessee only puts up 219.9 and 101.1 yards per game, respectively.   

"Is this enough to have Tennessee 10.5-point underdogs? The Davis equation says no."

Pick against the spread: "Tennessee will keep it closer than people think and cover the 10.5-point spread."

Glauser Pick No. 1: San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) over New Orleans Saints

USA TODAY Sports

This shouldn't seem very counterintuitive on the surface. We have two 4-4 teams heading in opposite directions. After a poor start, the Saints have marched to consecutive wins en route to the division lead in the NFC South, outscoring opponents by 29 for the year in the process. Meanwhile, the free-falling 49ers have lost two in a row, have been outscored by 10 and are staring up at two squads in the NFC West. 

Pick against the spread: Logic says the Saints continue their momentum and win by at least a touchdown. Therefore, take the Niners to cover.

Davis Pick No. 2: Miami Dolphins (+2.5) over Detroit Lions

USA TODAY Sports

"Matthew Stafford gets his big target Calvin Johnson back this week. That said, he had the same passer rating (86.5) with him early in the season than he did without. Meanwhile, Miami’s improved units will be too much for the average quarterback."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis equation has the wrong team favored here and has the Dolphins winning the game." 

Glauser Pick No. 2: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) over Dallas Cowboys

Charlie Crowhurst/Getty Images

Tony Romo did indeed make the trip for this overseas contest as the Cowboys look for a bounce-back win to keep pace in the NFC East. The Jags' highlight of the season may be the first-class flight to London for this game. And when an already mediocre defense loses four starters to injury leading up to facing one of the more dynamic offenses in football, it could spell a British invasion for the Boys. 

Pick against the spread: If an actual cowboy went up against an actual jaguar, who would win? Exactly. Which is why the Jags will at least cover. Don't question it. Just go with it. 

Davis Pick No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over the NY Jets

USA TODAY Sports

"The Steelers are playing their best football of the season, while the Jets are playing their worst. The Jets are 0-3 in their last three games and giving up 12 more points than they are scoring, while Pittsburgh is 3-0 and scoring 14.66 points more than it is giving up." 

Pick against the spread: "The Davis equation has the Steelers defeating the Jets by at least five points."

Glauser Pick No. 3: New York Jets (+4) over Pittsburgh Steelers

USA TODAY Sports

Here we have a matchup pitting one of the hottest teams in the NFL against one of the coldest. The Steelers have won their last three—all against quality opponents—by an average of 41-27. The Jets, meanwhile, have dropped eight straight. They have a bye after this game and might still find a way to lose. 

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh in a blowout, right? Not in Bizarro World! Take the Jets.

Davis Pick No. 4: Chicago Bears/Green Bay Packers Total: Over 53.5 Points

USA TODAY Sports

"Both the Bears and the Packers have performed poorly defensively over the past three games, giving up an average of just over 30 and 28 in that time, respectively. Both teams also have above-average offenses, which allows for lots of scoring." 

Pick against the spread: "The Davis equation has the total going over 53.5 points."

Glauser Pick No. 4: St. Louis Rams/Arizona Cardinals Total: Over 43 Points

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The Cardinals are off to their best start in decades, led by one of the stingiest defenses in the league. However, even at 7-1, they're averaging just less than five points more than their opponents for the season. The Rams have struggled offensively, especially on the road. Although they're 2-2 away from home, they've put up less than 17 points per game. 

Pick against the spread: The total is going over 43 points—just because everything tells me that it shouldn't. 

All quotes from Bill Davis acquired firsthand.