Fantasy Football Week 11: Complete Thursday Night Preview
Every NFL fan enjoys a good rivalry, and there’s every reason to think Thursday night’s clash between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will have its share of fireworks.
It’s also a rematch from earlier this season, when the Bills managed a 29-10 victory in Orchard Park back in Week 2. Dan Carpenter kicked five field goals, and running back C.J. Spiller returned a kickoff 102 yards for a score. In addition, rookie wideout Sammy Watkins caught his first career touchdown pass.
For fantasy football owners, it wasn’t a big game unless you had Carpenter and/or the Buffalo defense and special teams, which got you those field goals, four sacks and a pair of takeaways.
We figure this rematch will provide a little more offensive numbers. But we think that at least one of these defenses will come up big as well.
Starting Quarterbacks
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Buffalo Bills: Kyle Orton
The 10-year veteran’s latest stop is Orchard Park, and while it took a little time for him to get his feet wet, he has shown a penchant for fourth-quarter heroics. Just ask the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. The well-traveled quarterback has started Buffalo’s last five contests.
For our purposes, Orton has thrown five touchdown passes and zero interceptions in his last two games (with four of those scores versus the Jets) and was sacked five times. In his first three outings this season, he threw five touchdown passes and committed an equal amount of turnovers while being sacked 13 times.
Fantasy Prediction: 17-of-29, 198 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT. 2 carries, 8 yards, 0 TD.
Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill
In his third season at the helm of the Dolphins, Tannehill continues to progress. In nine games in 2014, he’s thrown more than twice as many touchdown passes (15) as interceptions (seven) and has been sacked only 20 times.
That latter figure may be the most significant considering Tannehill was sacked an NFL-high 58 times last season. The young quarterback has also not lost a fumble this season while rushing for 245 yards; he's second on the club behind running back Lamar Miller.
Tannehill has thrown at least two touchdown passes in four of his last six games.
Fantasy Prediction: 24-of-43, 271 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. 5 carries, 38 yards, 1 TD.
Running Backs
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Buffalo Bills Starter: Bryce Brown
A little foresight (or luck) never hurts.
This offseason, general manager Doug Whaley swung a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles to get the speedy performer. Brown was inactive for the first seven games, and after making his season debut against the Jets, he saw plenty of action in last Sunday’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Less than a week ago, Brown got 13 touches and totaled 100 yards from scrimmage in the 17-13 setback. But he also committed a costly fumble in the contest.
With C.J. Spiller out and Fred Jackson listed as questionable for this contest, Brown is a nice commodity to have right now. We’ll keep you updated throughout the day.
Fantasy Prediction: 17 carries, 78 yards, 0 TD. 2 receptions, 31 yards, 1 TD.
Buffalo Bills Backup: Anthony Dixon
A free-agent pickup from the San Francisco 49ers this spring, Dixon totaled nine carries for 62 yards rushing last week versus the Chiefs. This season, he ranks third on the team with 243 yards rushing on 58 carries but has yet to score a touchdown.
Dixon is not a factor when it comes to the passing game, having totaled just three receptions for 15 yards in 2014.
Fantasy Prediction: 11 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD. 0 receptions.
Miami Dolphins Starter: Lamar Miller
Miller was limited to a season-low four carries and 10 yards rushing last week at Detroit and is listed as probable for Thursday night. He’s enjoyed a solid year, leading the team with 528 yards rushing and five touchdowns and also catching 22 passes for 140 yards and a score.
It will be interesting to see his workload Thursday night; since he saw little action last Sunday, don’t be surprised if he’s very busy versus the Bills.
Fantasy Prediction: 19 carries, 91 yards, 0 TD. 4 receptions, 20 yards, 0 TD.
Miami Dolphins Backup: Damien Williams
Williams has rushed for 100 yards in limited playing time this season. But over the last few weeks, he’s totaled a combined 18 carries for 62 yards.
We’ll post conservative numbers for Williams for now. But this forecast could change if Lamar Miller’s status is updated later Thursday.
Fantasy Prediction: 4 carries, 22 yards, 0 TD. 1 reception, 4 yards, 0 TD.
Wide Receivers
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Buffalo Bills: Sammy Watkins
Slowed a bit last week by the Chiefs defense, the fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft has enjoyed a solid debut campaign.
Watkins leads the team in catches (42) and receiving yards (617) and owns one-third (five) of the team’s 15 touchdown receptions.
In his last three games, the speedster from Clemson has totaled 16 receptions for 306 yards and three scores.
Fantasy Prediction: 6 receptions, 94 yards, 0 TD.
Buffalo Bills: Robert Woods
Woods was solid as a rookie in 2013. He ranked fourth on the club with 40 catches for 587 yards and three touchdowns. Nine games into his second season, it looks like his numbers will be even better if he remains healthy.
The former University of Southern Cal standout has caught 34 passes for 346 yards and two scores, with both of those touchdowns coming in the last four games.
Fantasy Prediction: 5 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD.
Buffalo Bills: Chris Hogan
After not catching a pass in the first four games this season, Hogan has been a bit of a hero in recent weeks. The young wideout has totaled 18 catches for 223 yards and two touchdowns in five games this season, amassing five or more receptions in three of those outings.
Fantasy Prediction: 2 receptions, 14 yards, 0 TD.
Miami Dolphins: Mike Wallace
The good news for fantasy football owners is that Wallace has already found the end zone more times this season (six) than he did a year ago (five).
A year ago, the speedy wide receiver totaled 73 catches for 930 yards. In 2014, Wallace has caught a team-high 40 receptions for 519 yards.
The six-year pro has caught at least five passes in six games this season, and his six touchdowns have come in as many games.
Fantasy Prediction: 6 receptions, 111 yards, 1 TD.
Miami Dolphins: Brian Hartline
One year after leading the Dolphins with 76 catches and 1,016 receiving yards (four touchdowns), Hartline’s numbers have dropped dramatically in 2014. He ranks fourth on the team with 26 receptions for 266 yards and a score.
One season after totaling at least five catches in nine games a year ago, Hartline has achieved that mark just three times this season.
Fantasy Prediction: 3 receptions, 38 yards, 0 TD.
Miami Dolphins: Jarvis Landry
The second-round pick from LSU this past May leads the team in both punt and kickoff return yardage but suddenly finds himself second on the club with 37 catches. For the season, he has 354 yards and two touchdowns.
After not catching a pass in Week 1, Landry has totaled at least three receptions in eight consecutive games, and both of his touchdowns have come in his last five contests. But it’s also worth noting that his longest pass play of the season is just 21 yards.
Fantasy Prediction: 5 receptions, 51 yards, 0 TD.
Miami Dolphins: Rishard Matthews
One season after catching 41 passes, two for touchdowns, Matthews has not seen a lot of throws aimed at him this season so far. He’s been targeted just 12 times and caught seven passes 82 yards and two scores. But two of those scores have come in the last three games.
Fantasy Prediction: 2 receptions, 17 yards, 0 TD.
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Tight Ends
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Buffalo Bills Starter: Scott Chandler
One season ago, the veteran tight end led the Bills with 53 catches and 655 receiving yards but caught just two touchdown passes.
This season, Chandler has respectable numbers, ranking fourth on the team with 26 grabs. But he’s totaled just 307 yards and found the end zone just once. And 105 of those yards came in the team’s Week 6 loss to the New England Patriots.
Fantasy Prediction: 1 reception, 6 yards, 0 TD.
Buffalo Bills Backup: Lee Smith
The 6’6”, 265-pound pro makes for an imposing target. But Smith has caught just two passes this season for five yards and a score, with both of those receptions coming in the recent win over the Jets.
If you’re looking for help elsewhere when it comes to Bills tight ends, it should be noted that second-year pro Chris Gragg has totaled only four catches for 35 yards and a touchdown this season.
Fantasy Prediction: 0 receptions.
Miami Dolphins Starter: Charles Clay
He was a big surprise a year ago, finishing third on the club with 69 receptions and 759 receiving yards and a team-high six touchdowns. Clay’s numbers in 2014 (34 catches for 315 yards and two touchdowns) aren’t stacking to those totals from a year ago so far, but both of his scores have come in the last four weeks.
Fantasy Prediction: 3 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TD.
Miami Dolphins Backup: Dion Sims
A fourth-round draft choice in 2013, Sims caught six passes for 32 yards and a score in his rookie campaign. This season, he’s totaled seven grabs for 116 yards and a touchdown but has been inactive the last two games.
Fantasy Prediction: 0 receptions.
Defense/Special Teams
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Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams
Led by a talented and experienced front four, the Bills lead the NFL with 34 sacks this season. One year after finishing second in the league with 57 sacks, it’s safe to say this unit has picked up where it left off.
Jim Schwartz’s defense has also been much improved against the run this season. But it should be noted that after limiting the first six opponents to fewer than 100 yards on the ground, Buffalo has allowed 153.3 yards per game rushing the last three games.
On Thursday night, look for that pass rush to be busy and the Bills to add to their total of 19 takeaways, which will include a pick-six at the expense of Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
Fantasy Prediction: 23 points allowed, 4 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF.
Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams
Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle has this unit playing extremely well. Only three teams in the league have allowed fewer total yards per game, and the Dolphins have improved their run defense from a year ago.
Miami has not only totaled 28 sacks but has been consistent in bringing heat. Joe Philbin’s team has totaled three or more sacks in five straight games and seven of their nine contests in 2014.
But this team has really made strides in the takeaway department. One season after forcing only 24 turnovers in 16 contests, the Dolphins have already forced 19 in nine games in 2014.
Fantasy Prediction: 28 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF.
Best Sleeper Adds
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A couple of the players listed may not be on your team at the moment but could be worth a late add-on should your roster be affected by injuries or the off week.
1. Anthony Dixon, Running Back, Buffalo Bills (Owned in 25.1 percent of ESPN leagues)
The Bills have their share of productive running backs, but C.J. Spiller is currently on injured reserve, and Fred Jackson is listed as questionable. Bryce Brown could be the starter against Miami, but Dixon did lead the team in rushing yards in last week’s loss to Kansas City.
2. Jarvis Landry, Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins (Owned in 8.3 percent of ESPN leagues)
The rookie from LSU is coming off a game where he caught a season-high seven passes. Landry is now the team’s second-leading pass-catcher with 37 grabs.
3. Caleb Sturgis, Kicker, Miami Dolphins (Owned in 49.9 percent of ESPN leagues)
If Justin Tucker, Dan Bailey or perhaps Nick Folk is your kicker this week, you’re looking for a replacement. We think he’s good for three field goals and two PATs versus the Bills.
Injury Report
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Here is a look at the latest injury report regarding the Bills and Dolphins, with the focus on key performers. See each team’s complete injury list on NFL.com.
Buffalo Bills | ||
Player | Status | |
Jarius Wynn | DE | Out |
Fred Jackson | RB | Questionable |
Marquise Goodwin | WR | Questionable |
Marcus Easley | WR | Questionable |
Sammy Watkins | WR | Probable |
Jackson started, and Goodwin played last week against the Chiefs, but they and Easley (inactive on Sunday) were all limited in practice earlier this week. However, all signs appear to be a go for Watkins, who has been one of the hotter pass-catchers in the league as of late.
Miami Dolphins | ||
Player | Status | |
Cortland Finnegan | CB | Out |
Daryn Colledge | G | Doubtful |
Charles Clay | TE | Questionable |
Ryan Tannehill | QB | Probable |
Lamar Miller | RB | Probable |
Mike Pouncey | G | Probable |
Dion Jordan | DE | Probable |
Jared Odrick | DT | Probable |
Koa Misi | LB | Probable |
Finnegan is out, and Colledge is expected to be inactive for the third straight game. Clay was limited in practice this week and hopes to be available as he is a valuable part of the passing game. Odrick, Jordan and Pouncey all practiced on Wednesday.
Sit or Start
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There are the obvious standouts for both the Bills and Dolphins. But is there a key performer or two on your roster that you can’t seem to make your mind up about when it comes to starting? We’ll try to lend you a hand here.
QB Kyle Orton (Bills): He’s been steady since taking over in Week 5 but against a very aggressive Miami defense he could make as many mistakes as positive plays. Advance with caution.
Verdict: Sit
RB Bryce Brown (Bills): It remains to be seen if he will actually get the start on Thursday night. But you can expect the explosive performer to make an impact as a runner and receiver and find the end zone via a Kyle Orton screen pass.
Verdict: Start
RB Lamar Miller (Dolphins): Buffalo’s defense has allowed at least 125 yards rushing in each of its last five games as teams take advantage of its aggressiveness. Don’t be fooled by the team’s defensive ranking against the run and opt to sit Miller.
Verdict: Start
WR Mike Wallace (Dolphins): The one-time Pittsburgh Steeler is enjoying his second year in Miami a lot more than his first. Wallace has scored a touchdown in six of his nine outings this season and will find some holes in the Buffalo secondary.
Verdict: Start
Some statistical support provided by Pro-Football-Reference, NFL.com and ESPN.com. Depth-chart info provided by Ourlads.
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