NFL Predictions Week 10: Upset Picks and Projections

As the back half of the NFL season commences, there's a noticeable pecking order in the league's hierarchy. By now, we have a pretty good idea of which teams are certain to be playoff contenders, which teams will be fighting for position until the bitter end and which teams are probably looking forward to the 2015 NFL draft.

While there may be a great divide between the NFL's top teams and its cellar-dwellers, one thing remains a certainty: No team is safe from a loss—no matter its opponent. An underdog can easily catch fire and upset a favorite on any given Sunday.

As is the case in practically every week over the course of the season, Week 10 will be no exception. So, which favorite teams are most likely to lose this time around? Here's a look at each game's odds and projected winners, followed by three contests likely to result in unexpected conclusions.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -7	Bengals
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Even	Falcons
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens	BAL -10.5	Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets	PIT -4.5	Steelers
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints	NO -4.5	Saints
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars*	DAL -7.5	Jaguars
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions	DET -2.5	Lions
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills	Even	Chiefs
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders	DEN -12.5	Broncos
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -10	Giants
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals	AZ -8	Cardinals
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers	GB -8	Packers
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -7	Panthers

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 4.

Week 10 Upset Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

AJ Mast/Associated Press

This could turn out to be the most surprising contest of the week, and it all comes down to whether Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo suits up when these teams square off in London. ESPN's Todd Archer tweeted the latest on the quarterback:

While Romo did make the flight to London, it's clear he isn't fully healthy. With a bye week looming after this impending contest, the Cowboys could certainly look to backup Brandon Weeden one more time. Weeden wasn't good against the Arizona Cardinals, completing 18 of his 33 pass attempts for 183 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions for a 55.5 passer rating.

Due to Weeden's inefficiency, the entire offense stalled, as Arizona focused on stopping running back DeMarco Murray, limiting him to 79 yards—the first time he didn't eclipse the century mark this season.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville's Blake Bortles has been playing well. He's coming off a game against the Cincinnati Bengals, completing 22 of his 33 passing attempts for 247 yards, two touchdowns and one interception for a rating of 96.4. His young weapons are stepping up, and this offense is getting better by the week.

In a battle between Weeden and Bortles, it's difficult not to back the rookie.

Prediction: Jaguars 27, Cowboys 26

Tennessee Titans (+10.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Wade Payne/Associated Press

This may seem like another unlikely upset; however, quarterback play could lead to an unexpected result in favor of the underdog Titans.

Rookie Zach Mettenberger was given his first career start in Week 8 against the Houston Texans. That was a difficult test against J.J. Watt and Co., but the quarterback held his own, finishing the game completing 27 of his 41 passing attempts for 299 yards, two touchdowns and one interception for a rating of 93.4.

Luckily for Mettenberger, the Titans had a bye in Week 9, allowing him to get more reps with the first-team offense before taking the field in a game setting once more. Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean tweeted a similar notion from head coach Ken Whisenhunt:

Baltimore's secondary hasn't been good lately, ranking 24th in the league and coming off a performance in which it allowed Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to throw for six touchdowns. Meanwhile, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes over his last three games.

There's a good chance Mettenberger will catch lightning in a bottle here, emerging with a close victory.

Prediction: Titans 24, Ravens 23

Carolina Panthers (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Sticking with the quarterback-change trend, the Eagles will see a different face under center in this Monday Night Football contest. Nick Foles suffered a collarbone injury in Week 9 against the Houston Texans, and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport tweeted the quarterback's updated status:

With Foles sidelined, the door opens for Mark Sanchez to start his first game since 2012. Sanchez played most of the team's last contest following Foles' injury, but he was inconsistent. He did complete 15 of his 22 passing attempts for two touchdowns, but he also paired them with two bad interceptions.

Turnovers have plagued the Eagles this year, and they have done the same throughout Sanchez's career. That doesn't appear to be a very good combination going forward.

For the Panthers, Cam Newton has had his ups and downs this season. He hasn't been playing very well of late, completing just 10 of his 28 passing attempts for zero touchdowns and one interception for a 39.4 rating against the New Orleans Saints. However, he's fared better against weaker secondaries, and the Eagles are ranked 22nd in the league against the pass.

Expect Newton to get back on track while turnovers plague Sanchez and the Eagles in this one.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Eagles 24