NFL Picks Week 9: Odds and Over-Under Advice Before Sunday Kickoff

We're already halfway through the 2014 NFL season. While that's a bit depressing for enthusiasts of the league, it's also some good news for bettors. Heading into Week 9, good teams know they're good and bad teams know they're bad—odds have been adjusted accordingly.

At this point of the season, we can begin to take advantage of ongoing team trends and injury situations to better assess specific matchups and how they can affect the outcome of a game. This makes predicting game lines and expected scoring just a little bit easier.

As we impatiently await Sunday's kickoff, let's first glance at each game line, pick a winner against the spread and provide some over-under advice.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Over/Under
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans	PHI -2	Eagles	48.5
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys	DAL -4	Cardinals	44.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns	CLE -7	Browns	43
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings	Even	Redskins	43.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -11.5	Bengals	43.5
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins	MIA -1	Chargers	45
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs	KC -10.5	Chiefs	42.5
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers	SF -10.5	49ers	43.5
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -16	Raiders	43
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots	DEN -2.5	Patriots	53
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers	BAL -1	Ravens	47.5
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants	IND -3	Colts	50.5

All game lines courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of October 31.

Take the Under

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (47.5)

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Don't let Pittsburgh's 51-point offensive explosion in Week 8 fool you. That will not happen again this season, and it most certainly won't against the Ravens on Sunday.

The Steelers' offensive statistics are immensely skewed following the drubbing they put on the Indianapolis Colts. This is still the same team that only put up 10 points on the Cleveland Browns and 17 on the Jacksonville Jaguars no more than a few weeks prior. Not to mention, the last time the Steelers played the Ravens, they put up a season-low six points.

This isn't to say Pittsburgh doesn't have a good offense—it does. Ben Roethlisberger played very well against the Colts, Antonio Brown is emerging as one of the league's best wide receivers and Le'Veon Bell is coming into his own.

Still, the Ravens defense is ranked seventh in the league against the run. They have the ability to make an offense completely one-dimensional and then zone in on the pass. This defensive strategy has propelled Baltimore's defense to rank second in the league in scoring, allowing an average of just 16.4 points per game.

Even rookie C.J. Mosley was named Defensive Rookie of the Month for October, according to the team's official Twitter account:

Meanwhile, Baltimore's offense has been extremely streaky this season. Joe Flacco looked unstoppable for a couple of games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons; however, he couldn't get out of his own way against the Cincinnati Bengals, throwing zero touchdowns and two poor interceptions.

Now, this Ravens offense has to face a Steelers defense that has improved from what it saw earlier in the season. It's becoming sturdier against the run and is beginning to create pressure against opposing quarterbacks.

Expect Pittsburgh's defense to be especially on point considering defensive great Joe Greene's jersey will be retired at halftime, according to head coach Mike Tomlin:

Take those trends into consideration, and also keep in mind that these two teams slug it out in hard-nosed fashion every single time they meet, and you get a game that's destined to stay under 47.5 points.

Take the Over

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (44.5)

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

This is a game that has all the makings of a shootout, as the Cardinals travel to Dallas for an NFC heavyweight showdown.

Arizona's offense has been extremely prolific since the return of quarterback Carson Palmer from injury. The Cardinals have scored 30, 24 and 24 points in their last three games, respectively, which would easily hold up their end of the bargain to put this game over the Vegas limit.

Palmer's strong arm appears to be made for Bruce Arians' vertical passing game. He's surrounded by big-time threats in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. Shifty running back Andre Ellington only adds to the offense's versatility.

Adding to the offense's ability to remain on the field, here's a look at Palmer's efficiency rankings on third down this season, courtesy of John Buccigross:

While Dallas' defense has been good this year, it hasn't exactly held its opponents to minimal points recently. Over the team's last three contests, it allowed at least 20 points. Expect a potent Cardinals offense to best that number.

The Cowboys aren't strangers to putting up points this season, either. They are averaging 26.6 points per game, which is good enough to rank eighth in the league. In fact, over the team's last six games, it scored at least 30 four times.

DeMarco Murray has been an absolute beast on the ground this year. He's currently riding his NFL-record eight consecutive 100-yard rushing performances, and he's scored seven rushing touchdowns in that span.

Tony Romo has been extremely efficient. He's riding a 103.6 passer rating this season, throwing for 1,998 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions. Dallas' run-heavy scheme has taken plenty of weight off the quarterback's shoulders, and that's led to less forced passes and fewer turnovers.

The signal-caller did suffer a back injury in Week 8; however, according to Nick Eatman of DallasCowboys.com, head coach Jason Garrett is optimistic his quarterback will be taking the field on Sunday:

This is still something to monitor, though. If Romo does experience a setback, the game's line will shift tremendously, and this advice along with it. If the veteran signal-caller takes the field, you can remain very confident there will be enough points on the board by the game's conclusion to win a bet by taking the over.