Week 9 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

Halfway through the season, the sample size of games leaves our judgement in a tenuous state.  While we have a firm basis from which to evaluate teams, seven to eight games is still a small sample size vulnerable to fluky variation, which could erroneously shape our preconceptions.

Therefore, although Week 9 contains several lopsided lines, there are enough inefficiencies in the mainstream perception for savvy bettors to exploit.  Taking a look at the final odds before the Sunday afternoon kickoffs, let's look at some of the best values on the board for those seeking a last-minute edge.

Sunday, Nov. 2	Spread	Pick ATS
Monday, Nov. 3	Spread	Pick ATS
Tampa Bay at Cleveland	CLE -7	Tampa Bay
Arizona at Dallas	DAL -2.5	Arizona
Philadelphia at Houston	PHI -1.5	Philadelphia
NY Jets at Kansas City	KC -9	Kansas City
Jacksonville at Cincinnati	CIN -10.5	Cincinnati
San Diego at Miami	MIA -2.5	San Diego
Washington at Minnesota	MIN -1	Minnesota
St. Louis at San Francisco	SF -9	San Francisco
Denver at New England	DEN -2.5	New England
Oakland at Seattle	SEA -14	Seattle
Baltimore at Pittsburgh	BAL -2	Pittsburgh
Indianapolis at NY Giants	IND -3	Indianapolis

Eagles (-1.5) over Texans

Though they sit at 5-2, the Philadelphia Eagles have been the beneficiaries of some fortunate in-game circumstances this season.  With seven return touchdowns on defense and special teams, the Eagles have as many as the rest of the league combined.  

At some point, the Eagles will need something to offset that likely regression.  LeSean McCoy's return to form is the obvious candidate in that department.  A year after finishing first in Football Outsiders' cumulative DYAR stat and third in their per-play DVOA metric, McCoy ranks 33rd and 30th among running backs in those two categories this year, respectively.  Indeed, with his scoring drying up as well, McCoy has been among the league's least valuable rushers:

However, center Jason Kelce, a key cog as an agile reach-blocker in Philly's zone scheme, will return on Sunday.  If McCoy can rebound, the Eagles should be able to control the clock and force Ryan Fitzpatrick into mistakes, as the Houston quarterback has thrown seven interceptions in his past six games.  This is a sneaky tough road game for the Eagles but barring a plethora of big plays from DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson in the passing game, Philly holds enough of an edge to make them the wise pick in this near toss-up.

Chargers (+2.5) over Dolphins

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Having won two in a row, the 4-3 Miami Dolphins are emerging as legitimate contenders for an AFC wild-card spot.  At home against a slumping San Diego Chargers squad, the Dolphins would appear to hold the edge, especially when considering their success against Philip Rivers in 2013:

However, Rivers and the Chargers offense could flip that equation this season with the resurgence of Antonio Gates.  For all their defensive strengths, the Dolphins still have issues covering top receivers and tight ends, as their defensive DVOA splits illustrate.  In Keenan Allen and Branden Oliver, San Diego possesses a big perimeter receiver who can win over Miami's small cornerbacks and a shifty third-down back who can exploit the Dolphins' lack of a pure coverage linebacker, respectively.

Traveling cross country is always a difficult task, but with 10 days off, the battered Chargers should re-emerge fresher with the time off.  Expect San Diego to play with a greater sense of urgency to re-establish themselves as one of the AFC's top contenders.

Colts (-3) over Giants

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This line is rather low because of the prime-time road setting, but the Indianapolis Colts are the clearly superior team in this matchup.  Multiple advanced metrics agree with that assertion, as the New York Giants have lost critical depth at numerous positions, nosediving early-season optimism in Gotham.

More importantly, the Giants' wounded secondary is ill-equipped to stymie Indy's plethora of passing weapons.  New York is conceding a whopping 8.0 yards per pass attempt, better than only the Atlanta Falcons' abysmal pass defense.  Top cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie remains an uncertain proposition for Monday night, leaving the likes of Jayron Hosley and Zack Bowman in overextended roles that could prove disastrous:

Though the Colts' surprising defense ran into a brick wall of regression last week at Heinz Field, Indy can halt a relatively one-dimensional offense like the Giants, who have struggled to run the ball in Rashad Jennings' absence.  Look for the Colts to control this game and cruise past the spread.