NFL Week 5 Predictions: Last-Minute Pick Analysis for All 14 Games

Believe it or not, NFL picks get easier the closer we get to the Sunday slate.

As Las Vegas continues to alter spreads in order to best protect the house and reflect the action of bettors, those who oppose the house by making picks have ever-developing access to injury information, insider notes, opinions and more.

Week 5 is a good example of this. Look at the Arizona-Denver matchup. It was easy to roll with the Cardinals, one of the league's unbeaten teams, against the spread. But now that we know Drew Stanton will be in the game in place of Carson Palmer, all bets for the Cardinals should be off for good.

Let's take a look at the full slate of games set to begin in less than 24 hours and break down some notable changes after the jump.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Chicago at Carolina	CAR (-3)	Carolina	Chicago's defense is downright not talented enough to capitalize on a hobbled Carolina backfield.
Cleveland at Tennessee	TEN (-2.5)	Cleveland	Tennessee is arguably the worst team in the league, while Cleveland had a bye week to prepare.
St. Louis at Philadelphia	PHI (-7.5)	Philadelphia	Chip Kelly's offense will not find it difficult to rediscover balance and productivity against the leaky St. Louis defense.
Atlanta at NY Giants	NYG (-4)	NY Giants	See analysis below.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO (-11)	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay looks better with Mike Glennon under center, but few escape New Orleans with a win.
Houston at Dallas	DAL (-6)	Dallas	Dallas limps into this one on the defensive side of the ball, but it won't matter much against the Houston offense.
Buffalo at Detroit	DET (-7.5)	Detroit	Detroit is arguably the best team in the league thanks to a strong run defense and a potent offense.
Baltimore at Indianapolis	IND (-3.5)	Baltimore	Indianapolis has yet to beat a credible opponent, while Baltimore has won three straight and looks great offensively.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville	PIT (-7)	Pittsburgh	Blake Bortles in his first home NFL start will cause issues, but the Pittsburgh attack is too talented to lose.
Arizona at Denver	DEN (-7.5)	Denver	Peyton Manning will eventually overtake a strong defense against a Drew Stanton-led offense.
Kansas City at San Francisco	SF (-6.5)	Kansas City	See analysis below.
NY Jets at San Diego	SD (-7)	San Diego	Philip Rivers is the hottest player in the league at the moment and will have no issues posting more points than New York's quarterbacks.
Cincinnati at New England	CIN (-2)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati is the hottest team in the league at the moment and gets a reeling New England club on a short week.
Seattle at Washington (Mon., Oct. 6)	SEA (-7.5)	Seattle	Kirk Cousins was exposed last week, the beginning of a trend that only gets worse upon a visit from Seattle.

Notable Late-Week Changes to Consider

Atlanta at New York Giants (-4)

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Earlier this week, it would have been a rather easy decision to roll with Atlanta before the spread morphed. Atlanta lost to Minnesota, but the offense is still elite and there remains a certain negative stigma around the New York defense.

As the week has worn on, though, it is clear bettors should feel comfortable with Eli Manning and the Giants beating the spread outright.

First, the offense. There has been a stigma around Manning this season, and rightfully so after he led the league in interceptions last year. He looked poised to defend that title, too, throwing four total picks over the course of the first two games.

Suddenly, the offense began to click. We knew the unit would need some time to adapt to the new scheme, and in two games since the light bulb went on, Manning has thrown six touchdowns to one interception and never seen his completion percentage dip below 71 percent.

On the flip side, the defense very quietly ranks No. 10 overall against the rush and, most important of all in Sunday's matchup, touts an elite rush that has generated 11 sacks, 15 quarterback hits and 44 hurries through four games, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

To top it all off, the Atlanta offensive line has only regressed in terms of health in the week leading up to the game. Art Stapleton of NorthJersey.com provides the perspective:

With center Joe Hawley and offensive tackle Lamar Holmes hitting injured reserve, it matters little that Ryan has elite weapons on the edge, especially against skilled corners such as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Bank on New York by more than the spread suggests.

Prediction: Giants 27, Falcons 17

Kansas City at San Francisco (-6.5)

Peter Aiken/Getty Images

Slowly but surely, this line has quietly crept back toward Kansas City.

For good reason, too.

Andy Reid's Chiefs were the running joke of the league for the first two weeks or so, especially after a debacle in Week 1 in which the staff foolishly rushed elite back Jamaal Charles all of seven times in a loss to Tennessee (a team that has gone on to lose three straight).

Against New England on Monday Night Football, though, Reid and his team announced that most of their issues are a thing of the past in a 41-14 win. Specifically, the team rode two talented backs in the rout:

NAME	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
Knile Davis	71	321	4.5	3
Jamaal Charles	27	115	4.3	1

The only problem that negates this strength in the spread, outside of being on the road, is the fact the 49ers rank No. 2 overall against the rush, allowing just 69.8 yards per game on the ground. Then again, that number is ridiculously skewed because Arizona is not a rushing team, Chicago inexplicably only gave Matt Forte 12 carries, and Philadelphia did much of the same with LeSean McCoy, who received all of 10.

Those teams that stick with the run seem to find success. Just ask Dallas, which rode DeMarco Murray 22 times and got 118 yards and a score out of the commitment.

On the flip side, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh understands that his shaky offensive line is in for a huge test against the likes of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, two parts of a defense that has found its way to 13 sacks already, per PFF.

"It's hard to imagine one bigger," Harbaugh said, per Steve Corkran of the San Jose Mercury News. "This is a big test, no question about it."

On the road, an ability to run the ball and supplement a top-eight pass defense with a strong rush will lead the Chiefs to a win, so long as Reid and his staff do not revert to Week 1 form. 

Prediction: Chiefs 24, 49ers 23

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Oakland and Miami on bye.