NFL Week 5 Picks: Last-Minute Advice on Vegas Odds and Spreads

Did another Thursday Night Football rout in Week 5 add some weight to your wallet? If so, great choice. If not, don't let the hapless play of Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder get you down for long. After all, there are 14 more chances to end the week in the money.

While Thursdays have been highly predictable to this point in the season, that same phrase certainly can't be used to describe Sundays. Some impending outcomes may be rather simple to guess; however, others appear to be rather sneaky. It's important to avoid being caught in the oddsmakers' trap.

So, which game figures to provide easy money? Which one will be the most difficult to predict? Is there a trap game to be aware of this week? Let's go ahead and take a look at the full slate of remaining Week 5 games, predict the outcome for each and answer those three questions.

Matchup	Odds	Prediction
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts	IND, -3.5	IND, 31-27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints	NO, -11	NO, 31-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars	PITT, -7	PITT, 35-13
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants	NYG, -4	NYG, 30-24
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers	CAR, -3	CHI, 27-23
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles	PHI, -7	PHI, 26-20
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys	DAL, -6	DAL, 24-16
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans	EVEN	CLE, 23-20
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions	DET, -7	DET, 18-10
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos	DEN, -7.5	DEN, 28-20
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers	SD, -7	SD, 27-20
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers	SF, -6	SF, 23-22
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots	CIN, -2	CIN, 27-20
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins	SEA, -7.5	SEA, 34-16

Game odds courtesy of OddsShark.com and current as of October 3.

Easy Money

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

The Steelers have been absolutely perplexing so far in 2014. Pittsburgh stands at 2-2 on the heels of a terrible loss to the then-winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. Although, Pittsburgh was highly productive, a bevy of penalties proved to be the team's undoing.

Don't expect that to happen two weeks in a row—against two consecutive winless teams.

Luckily for bettors, that Pittsburgh loss afforded a very favorable game line for Sunday. Had the Steelers held on to win in Week 4, we could be looking at a double-digit spread right now. So, why will Pittsburgh win handily in Week 5?

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been on a hot streak over the last two weeks, tossing a total of five touchdowns. This week, he faces the Jaguars' 32nd-ranked pass defense and 32nd-ranked scoring defense. Roethlisberger is the sexy fantasy football pick on Sunday as well, via ESPN Fantasy Sports:

On the flip side, Pittsburgh's defense only allowed Mike Glennon to complete half of his passes and held Tampa Bay's running game to an average of just 3.2 yards per carry. Rookie Blake Bortles may be the long-term answer in Jacksonville, but he's not ready to face a Dick LeBeau defense just yet.

Roll with the Steelers for the easy money.

Tough Call

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

The Colts began the season with two close losses to the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles. The team was able to right the ship in a big way over the next two weeks, blowing the doors off both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. Now, they stand to face the red-hot Ravens on Sunday.

Three straight victories for Baltimore culminated in wide receiver Steve Smith torching his former team for 139 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions during the Ravens' 38-10 rout of the Carolina Panthers. Baltimore accumulated 454 yards of total offense in Week 4—a fact that doesn't bode well for a Colts team that's allowing an average of 356.0 yards per came, ranking 19th in the league.

Still, it's difficult to count out a surging Andrew Luck. Baltimore is ranked 24th in the league against the pass, and Luck has tossed for at least 370 yards and four touchdowns in both of his last two games. A quote from Terrell Suggs pretty much sums it up, via Around the NFL:

There's plenty of factors that favor each of these teams heading into Sunday's showdown, making this a very difficult contest to predict. Chalk this one up to home-field advantage for the team with the hotter quarterback.

This will be a close one, but the Colts take a win in the end.

Trap Game

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7)

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

At first glance, this seems like an easy one. The Chargers have been one of the league's hottest teams of late, and the Jets continue to struggle on both sides of the ball. However, this matchup will be closer than most will think.

Philip Rivers has been fantastic this season, and against a banged-up Jets secondary, he should have a field day once again. The quarterback has already received one of the league's early accolades, via NFL on ESPN:

Although, San Diego should be expected to have a very one-dimensional offense, as the team is ranked 31st in the league on the ground, while New York is the NFL's top team against the run.

While the Jets are on the road, and traveling to the west coast is never easy, the team provided a solid showing in Green Bay earlier this season. New York took a healthy lead only to watch Aaron Rodgers pass his team back into the driver's seat in the second half.

But, here's the thing about the Jets: They are very resilient. Despite their 1-3 record this season, they haven't lost by a margin of more than eight points in any game. New York's ability to hang with better teams makes this a big trap game for bettors.

The Chargers sure look like the easy pick, but the Jets are more than capable staying within the seven-point margin.