2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 5
October is here, and more than the leaves are falling this month.
As NFL teams win (and lose), the draft order becomes more set and we see which areas each team will be looking to address in the upcoming NFL draft. Some are obvious, like the New England Patriots needing help at wide receiver, but others take weeks to flesh out. But make no mistake, every NFL scout is at a college right now watching film, meeting coaches, talking to trainers and evaluating prospect game film.
With the NFL draft set for April 30, teams now have an end date to work toward. And we do too.
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The Scout's Report
— One area scout told me this week, "Everyone loves (Brett) Hundley, but hates EJ Manuel. They're the same player!"
— On the contrary, a different area scout told me that Arizona State was "the best game of Hundley's career." It's always interesting to see two experts disagree on one player.
— Tevin Coleman sounds like he's ready for the NFL. Sources close to the junior running back tell me he's expected to enter the 2015 draft. His early start to the season has definitely caught the eye of NFL teams.
— LSU offensive tackle La'el Collins gets plenty of praise, but redshirt sophomore right tackle Jerald Hawkins looks like the better pro prospect. Scouts I've talked to this week echo that sentiment.
— How did Aaron Lynch end up with the San Francisco 49ers? I'm told by a league source that University of South Florida head coach Willie Taggart personally signed off on Lynch to head coach Jim Harbaugh. The move has paid off, with Lynch having a monster game against the Eagles in Week 4.
— Scouts are very excited about West Virginia Kevin White, but don't overlook teammate Mario Alford. He's already been compared to a better version of Tavon Austin by one scout I spoke to. Alford won't be drafted as high, but looks to have a cleaner transition to the NFL.
— Folks close to wide receiver DeVante Parker told me this week that the star Louisville wide receiver is ahead of schedule on returning from a broken bone in his foot. He could be back on the field as early as mid-October. He's my top ranked senior wide receiver at this time.
— Without a deep group of senior cornerbacks, NFL scouts already stealing peeks at the juniors. One scout told me this week that Louisville's Charles Gaines is the sleeper of the group. The 5'11" Gaines isn't the biggest guy, but has very quick feet and hips in coverage.
— During the Florida State vs. North Carolina State game, this text came in from an area scout: "How many Jimbo Fisher quarterbacks are succeeding in the NFL?" The text refers to the struggles of Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel, both first-rounders, to produce in the pros. With Jameis Winston the next Fisher quarterback to hit the NFL, this bares watching.
— I spoke to two people (an NFC scout and an NFL quarterback coach) and both intimated that Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty is a first-round-talent if all injury questions are answered.
Five Up, Five Down
Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.
5. DT Danny Shelton, Washington
The Washington defense is loaded full of future NFL talent, and big defensive tackle Danny Shelton is definitely part of that group. As a preseason top 75 player, Shelton has consistently moved up with solid play each week. He's also showing better agility and instincts so far this year, and looks like more of an athlete and less of a gap-plugger.
After USC's Leonard Williams—who is a hybrid end/tackle—there isn't a clear-cut top defensive tackle, which opens the door for Shelton. He is moving up my board fast, and looks like at least a late first round or early second round pick.
4. DE Dante Fowler, Florida
The 2015 draft may be the year of the freak pass-rusher, and Dante Fowler will be one of the headliners.
Fowler is a physically dominant player with the strength and speed to be an effective edge player—either with his hand in the dirt or when standing up as a pass rusher. He doesn't have a great NFL comparison right now, but he definitely looks like a top 20 pick if he keeps up this high-level of play. And with versatile, hybrid schemes becoming more and more prevalent in the NFL, players like Fowler will continue to be highly sought after.
3. S Landon Collins, Alabama
Landon Collins continues to move up the rankings—and will likely hit my Top 10 when a new big board comes out early next week.
Collins is the rare big safety who is athletic enough to play in coverage, too. Alabama uses him near the line of scrimmage to stop the run and jam-up tight ends, but they also let him play high in coverage and work the center of the field.
Personally, Collins looks more like a strong safety, but in the NFL the more you can do the better, and his versatility as a safety will be huge for his rising draft stock.
2. RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
Is there anything Todd Gurley can't do?
When my updated big board is released next week, Gurley will be the top ranked running back without a doubt. The gap between Gurley and the next-best back is huge when talking NFL potential and readiness. With his speed, violent running style and vision, Gurley is more than ready to crash the first round of the 2015 draft.
The only question mark here is his injury history, but as long as Gurley is healthy throughout 2014, he has the goods to be a top 10 pick.
1. DE Shane Ray, Missouri
During the 2013 season, I saw plenty of Shane Ray as he subbed in for Michael Sam and Kony Ealy on the Missouri defensive line. I also heard from multiple people that the Tigers best defensive end wasn't a starter. That would be Mr. Ray.
The 245 pound defensive end has the athleticism to get crazy in the backfield, but he can also stand up in space and move around to find the best matchup. Where Sam and Ealy weren't super flexible or fast, you see Ray running down plays from behind and making the explosive plays that the two defensive ends last year lacked.
1. OT Cam Erving, Florida State
For the second-straight week, Cam Erving finds himself on the wrong list. He's moving down again after struggling against North Carolina State one week after struggling against Clemson.
Erving doesn't look to have the quickness or strength to effectively protect the edge. A move to guard may be the best bet for his future, but even there he will have to correct his habit of playing tall and struggling to move through space.
2. OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
As I tweeted during the Stanford vs. Washington game, Peat is way too raw as a technician for me to fall in love with him like many have. He's a classic waist-bending tackle (as opposed to knee-bending) and lacks the strength to play at the point of attack.
Peat is just a junior, and with his flaws exposed this year, a return to Stanford for his senior season looks like a better move.
3. WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford
Ty Montgomery is athletic, but the fundamentals of playing wide receiver aren't a strong point of his game right now. That's not to say they can't be there eventually, but through four games Montgomery looks like a tailback playing receiver.
He has value as a return man and on athletic plays (jet sweeps, etc.), but as a pure route-runner he lacks the refinement that others in this class show.
4. DE DeVonte Fields, Trinity Valley CC
When a FBS star makes the move to a community college because of legal trouble, he should be dominating the talent there weekly. DeVonte Fields, though, is not. I spoke with one scout who has access to Trinity's coaches film and he told me that Fields is undisciplined and uninterested on the field. That's the wrong message for Fields to send to the NFL and to FBS school looking to take him in as a potential transfer.
5. QB Chuckie Keeton, Utah State
For the second straight year, Chuckie Keeton's season is ended early due to injury. The promising quarterback prospect has the athletic ability and touch to excite scouts, but a second left knee injury has his future in question.
A senior in 2014, Keeton may be able to request a medical redshirt and return in 2015, but for now his NFL future looks bleak.
Scouting Report: Rashad Greene, FSU
Throughout the 2014 college football season, one senior draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.
Wide Receiver, FSU (6'0", 180 lbs)
Strengths
- Very quick in and out of his breaks.
- A smooth runner in the open field and when asked to change direction.
- Is a hands catcher with very few drops.
- Adjusts well on the go to make catches low, behind or away from his body.
- Has the speed to separate in coverage and run away from defenders.
- Football IQ and character are high-level.
- Has the look of a starting No. 2 or No. 3 receiver in the NFL.
Weaknesses
- Is very light at a listed 180 pounds.
- Can get caught up in traffic when asked to go over the middle against zone coverage.
- Doesn't have great strength to beat press coverage.
- Surrounded by talent that may enable his playmaking.
- Will be questioned on his ability to make contested catches.
Pro Player Comparison: Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos
Scouting Dictionary
"Single High Safety"
It seems that every year a phrase or two become trendy and get overused. Think of "arm talent" or "scheme versatile" as good examples of this. Expect "single high safety" to be thrown around a lot this year thanks to the Seattle Seahawks and the spread of Cover 3 defenses.
The term "single high safety" comes from the alignment of the secondary with two cornerbacks on the edge, a strong safety in the box (near the line of scrimmage) and one safety lined up high. You'll hear this referred to also as a centerfielder, and it's basically the same idea.
The single high safety in Cover 1 or Cover 3 is responsible for the deep middle of the field. When evaluating players who will be used as a single high safety, we're looking for good open-field speed, high awareness to read-and-react and good tackling skills in space.
The Big Board
The 2015 draft will see the drought of first round running backs end—and we may see more than one drafted in the first round. Here's a look at my top ten running backs (including juniors) as the first weekend in October approaches.
| Rank | Player | School |
| 1 | Todd Gurley | Georgia |
| 2 | Melvin Gordon | Wisconsin |
| 3 | Ameer Abdullah | Nebraska |
| 4 | Mike Davis | South Carolina |
| 5 | Duke Johnson | Miami (Fla.) |
| 6 | Tevin Coleman | Indiana |
| 7 | T.J. Yeldon | Alabama |
| 8 | Jeremy Langford | Michigan State |
| 9 | Malcolm Brown | Texas |
| 10 | Corey Grant | Auburn |
Parting Shots
10. It seems like every year we hear that next year's draft will be great, but when starting to look ahead to 2016 while evaluating this year's class, it's impossible to overlook the talent at Ole Miss.
Defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Laquan Treadwell are all top-tier players at their positions already. By the time the 2016 draft is here, if they can all stay healthy, we could see Ole Miss dominate the top 10 picks of the draft and easily have two players drafted in the top five picks.
9. The Buffalo Bills used the No. 16 overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft on Florida State quarterback EJ Manuel—a pick that was widely criticized then. Manuel has been benched after four weeks into his second season. What did the predraft grade on Manuel say about him?
I had Manuel ranked as my fourth quarterback and No. 50 overall. He was also given the grade of "biggest risk at quarterback" before that draft. It's easy to say now that the Bills reached on Manuel, but that was definitely the case on draft night.
This is yet another great example of why teams should not reach on a quarterback. And with no first-rounder in 2015 after trading up to get wide receiver Sammy Watkins, the cupboard is bare for replacing Manuel in the draft.
8. My rule about not looking at players before they are draft eligible has been tested this year with guys like Christian Hackenberg (QB, Penn State) and the Ole Miss talents. Add Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa to that list.
Bosa, at 6'5", 278 pounds, is already drawing J.J. Watt comparisons. And for good reason. He's a dominant athlete with the on-field play to back up the huge expectations placed on him right out of high school.
Between Hackenberg, Bosa, Nkemdiche and Tunsil, my top four for 2016 is already set.
7. I've heard rumblings that some coaches and scouts feel Washington's Shaq Thompson would be better off focusing on playing running back instead of jumping back-and-forth between offense and his starting position as a linebacker on defense.
Thompson may indeed be a better running back than linebacker, but in today's NFL there is not a great shelf life for backs. The life of a linebacker in the NFL—especially a versatile one like Thompson—means a higher draft pick and a longer career. It's an easy choice for Thompson to stay at linebacker.
6. Many people read this article because they're interested in a job as an NFL scout. If you're hoping to follow that career path, be sure you're watching "Finding Giants" on NFL Network. The show follows the New York Giants' scouts during the 2013 season as they look for players in the 2014 draft. It's a great look at what the life of an NFL scout is actually like. Hint: rental cars, hotel rooms and team-issued gear.
5. As character and criminal history become a big part of scouting, it's interesting to look at the Kansas City Chiefs' roster and see two high-profile players who both fell in the draft because of off-field issues.
Justin Houston and Travis Kelce both fell in the draft because of off-field question marks. Houston, per Pro Football Talk, reportedly failed a drug test at the Scouting Combine and Kelce was suspended for a season while at Cincinnati for breaking team rules.
The Chiefs rolled the dice on these question marks (both in Round 3) and each player is making a huge impact for Andy Reid's team.
4. Rand Getlin of Yahoo! Sports broke the news that the 2015 NFL draft will be held in Chicago. This comes on the same day the NFL announced the draft will be held April 30-May 2. This is a pretty big surprise, given that the other finalist city (Los Angeles) is home to the NFL Network. Deep dish pizza for everyone!
3. Can we talk about how bad the NFL Thursday night games are? Let's look at the margin of victory in the five games thus far.
| Week | Winner | Loser | Margin |
| Week 1 | Seahawks 36 | Packers 16 | 20 |
| Week 2 | Ravens 26 | Steelers 6 | 20 |
| Week 3 | Falcons 56 | Buccaneers 14 | 42 |
| Week 4 | Giants 45 | Washington 14 | 31 |
| Week 5 | Packers 42 | Vikings 10 | 32 |
2. Announcers using the phrase "point guard" is a nicer, modern way of saying "game manager" or "system quarterback", but minus the negative connotation. I've heard Russell Wilson, Alex Smith, Marcus Mariota and Teddy Bridgewater all called a point guard in the last week.
1. If you have plans for Saturday, cancel them. The slate of college football games offers an impressive list of top-tier prospects facing each other. Here are the big games I'll be watching multiple times.
| Home | Away | Home Prospects | Away Prospects |
| Michigan St. | Nebraska | QB Connor Cook FS Kurtis Drummond | RB Ameer Abdullah DE Randy Gregory |
| Ole Miss | Alabama | WR Laquan Treadwell (2016) | RB TJ Yeldon |
| LSU | Auburn | OT La'el Collins OT Jerald Hawkins DE Jermauria Rasco CB/S Jalen Mills CB Jalen Collins S Ronald Martin | QB Nick Marshall |
| Stanford | Notre Dame | QB Kevin Hogan WR Ty Montgomery OT Andrus Peat DE Henry Anderson S Jordan Richards | QB Everett Golson TE Ben Koyack |
| Texas A&M | Miss. State | OT Cedric Ogbuehi OT Germain Ifedi OG Jarvis Harrison CB Deshazor Everett | QB Dak Prescott ILB Benardrick McKinney S Justin Cox |
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.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
