NFL Week 5 Picks: Game-by-Game over-Under Predictions

In the world of handicapping over-under lines, even NFL's Week 5 losers can help make you a winner.

The Jacksonville Jaguars may never win an actual football game this season, but their abysmal defense allows opponents to stockpile points, creating an opportunity for the Jaguars to tack on scores against prevent defenses with the game out of hand.

Sounds like a sturdy recipe for picking the over. That makes their weekend slate one of the matchups described below, but here's a complete look at picks for each of Week 5's contests.

Away	Home	O/U	Prediction
Minnesota	Green Bay	47.5	34-13 GB
Chicago	Carolina	45.5	23-20 CHI
Cleveland	Tennessee	N/A	26-17 CLE
St. Louis	Philadelphia	47.5	31-23 PHI
Atlanta	NY Giants	50	28-20 ATL
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	48	38-13 NO
Houston	Dallas	46	24-20 DAL
Buffalo	Detroit	44	24-6 DET
Baltimore	Indianapolis	48	30-27 BAL
Pittsburgh	Jacksonville	46.5	37-17 PIT
Arizona	Denver	49	23-17 DEN
Kansas City	San Francisco	44.5	24-13 SF
NY Jets	San Diego	43.5	27-17 SD
Cincinnati	New England	46	28-16 CIN
Seattle	Washington	45.5	31-12 SEA

Note: Over-under lines, courtesy of Odds Shark, are updated as of Wednesday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

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Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers combined for 52 points during a shocking loss for Mike Tomlin's squad. Because they should redeem the upset by decimating the Jaguars, the defeat should encourage bettors to take the over.

During his first career NFL start, Blake Bortles completed 29 of his 37 pass attempts for 253 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He's moved the ball well in a short sample size, posting a 70.5 completion percentage through six quarters.

Against a Pittsburgh defense that allowed Mike Glennon to seamlessly drive the field late in the fourth quarter, Bortles should put up points, even if they're garbage-time scores. The Jaguars just need to do their part with 14-20 points.

Pittsburgh will do the rest against the NFL's worst defense. Despite its six-point hiccup against the Baltimore Ravens, the club ranks fifth in total yards amassed. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have surrendered 38 points per game, an average that puts this game will on the way to meeting the 46.5 over-under line.

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

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It'll take a huge offensive outing or some defensive scores from the Detroit Lions to take this game above the over-under line.

Bored of E.J. Manuel after a sluggish start, the Buffalo Bills kicked him to the curb in favor of Kyle Orton. Per the team's Twitter page, head coach Doug Marrone explained why he's shifting to the veteran.

CBS Sports' Will Brinson didn't pull any punches regarding Buffalo's chances with Orton under center.

The timing works great for Manuel, who now avoids the league's stingiest defense through September. In addition to allowing the fewest yards per game, the Lions have also accumulated 10 sacks. Buffalo will be lucky to score double-digits on Sunday.

That places the onus on Matthew Stafford to pile on the scoreboard, but the Bills haven't allowed more than 23 points in a game this season. It's not all a matter of competition, either, as that includes games against the Chicago Bears and San Diego Chargers.

The Lions should have no trouble improving to 3-1, and they very well might exceed that 23-point barometer. However, they're unlikely to produce 34 or more points without the benefit of some fortuitous scores on defense and special teams.

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

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Despite baffling quarterback drama in St. Louis, the Rams should once again engage an NFC East opponent in a high-scoring affair.

During Week 3, the Rams jumped out to a 21-0 lead over the Dallas Cowboys before eventually losing 34-31. Forced to take the helm due to a string of injuries, Austin Davis has registered a league-leading 72.3 completion percentage while placing sixth with 8.02 yards per attempt.

Yet head coach Jeff Fisher has insisted that veteran journeyman Shaun Hill will have the starting job waiting for him when he returns from injury.

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"We'll see how things go this week," Fisher told ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner. "We'll see how Shaun is, but as I've maintained Shaun is our starter and Austin is our backup.” 

Nobody should have to explain to Fisher why that makes no sense, but The Turn's Anthony Stalter did anyway.

The Philadelphia Eagles sport the league's 28th-ranked defense, and they have allowed 97 points to three teams not named the Jaguars. On the flip side, the Rams' 30th rushing defense presents the perfect opportunity for LeSean McCoy to rebound from back-to-back nightmares.

Since the Eagles scored 101 points in three games before stumbling against the San Francisco 49ers, it's fair to award them 30 points at home against the Rams. If Davis plays, the Rams should break 17. Hill would make this interesting, but perhaps the line would then drop a tad, preserving it as a worthwhile play.