NFL Week 5 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

At face value, Las Vegas seems to have as much trouble as bettors when it comes to NFL spreads this season.

Unlike most years by the time Week 5 rolls around, the upcoming slate has no matchup and spread that seems such a safe thing. Normally, there are one or two contests that bettors smirk at before throwing down the coin, but upsets galore have taught valuable lessons in financial humility through four weeks.

For example, currently, the largest spread rests on Tampa Bay-New Orleans. Or as bettors better understand them, the unpredictable Buccaneers with a competent quarterback under center and the weekly disappointment that is a Saints team.

Below, let's look at the full lines and a few games to simply pretend do not exist.

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Minnesota at Green Bay (Thurs., Oct. 2)	GB (-10)	Green Bay	Teddy Bridgewater or not, Green Bay is firing on all cylinders and won't be stopped at home.
Chicago at Carolina	CAR (-3)	Carolina	See analysis below.
Cleveland at Tennessee	TEN (-2.5)	Cleveland	Tennessee is arguably the worst team in the league, while Cleveland had a bye week to prepare.
St. Louis at Philadelphia	PHI (-7)	Philadelphia	Chip Kelly's offense will not find it difficult to rediscover balance and productivity against the leaky St. Louis defense.
Atlanta at NY Giants	NYG (-4)	NY Giants	Eli Manning and Co. have finally wrapped their brains around the new, efficient offense. Atlanta's defense and offensive line are a mess.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO (-11)	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay looks better with Mike Glennon under center, but few escape New Orleans with a win.
Houston at Dallas	DAL (-4.5)	Dallas	Dallas limps into this one on the defensive side of the ball, but it won't matter much against the Houston offense.
Buffalo at Detroit	DET (-7.5)	Detroit	Detroit is arguably the best team in the league thanks to a strong run defense and potent offense.
Baltimore at Indianapolis	IND (-3)	Baltimore	Indianapolis has yet to beat a credible opponent, while Baltimore has won three straight and looks great offensively.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville	PIT (-7)	Pittsburgh	Blake Bortles in his first home NFL start will cause issues, but the Pittsburgh attack is too talented to lose.
Arizona at Denver	DEN (-7)	Denver	Unless Carson Palmer comes back and is in great form, Peyton Manning will eventually overtake a strong defense.
Kansas City at San Francisco	SF (-7)	San Francisco	See analysis below.
NY Jets at San Diego	SD (-7)	San Diego	Philip Rivers is the hottest player in the league at the moment and will have no issues posting more points than New York's quarterbacks.
Cincinnati at New England	NE (-2.5)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati is the hottest team in the league at the moment and gets a reeling New England club on a short week.
Seattle at Washington (Mon., Oct. 6)	SEA (-7.5)	Seattle	Kirk Cousins was exposed last week, the beginning of a trend that only gets worse upon a visit from Seattle.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 10 p.m. ET, Sept. 30.

Spreads to Avoid 

Chicago at Carolina (-3)

Gail Burton/Associated Press

A battle between two .500 teams normally gives bettors pause at this juncture, but these two in particular make it even worse.

Chicago, hobbled defense and all, hits the road to take on Carolina one week removed from getting exposed by Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to the tune of 38-17. The home team unexpectedly continues to struggle on defense and has an injury-riddled backfield one week removed from a 38-10 loss in Baltimore.

Normally, one would feel confident that the Panthers will find room to run against another miserable Chicago defense, but Fozzy Whittaker, Darrin Reaves and Chris Ogbonnaya are the only healthy backs on the roster right now.

That seems fine given the prowess of the Panthers' passing attack to date, mostly thanks to the continued breakout campaign from rookie wideout Kelvin Benjamin, who most recently caught five passes for 76 yards and a score in Baltimore.

The Bears are no slouch offensively, though. Bettors already know about the triple-headed monster on the receiving end of passes from Jay Cutler that is Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett.

But do not forget a currently slumping Matt Forte. If Chicago's lead back is to have a breakout game soon, it seems it would come against the Panthers, as sideline reporter Zach Zaidman illustrates:

Both defenses have been exploited more than usual to date thanks to weak secondaries, so offenses that have performed unpredictably at best create a matchup to be avoided this time around.

Last week, nobody would have blinked if Green Bay-Chicago and Carolina-Baltimore both went down to the wire. Instead, both were lopsided blowouts. In turn, this one needs to be left alone.

Kansas City at San Francisco (-7)

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

How is this for two unpredictable teams?

San Francisco is just 1-1 at its brand-new stadium this year, and the win was a 26-21 escape over Philadelphia last week. The defense measures out elite statistically (No. 7 against the pass, No. 2 against the rush), but only one game to date has been decided by more than 10 points.

Kansas City looked like one of the worst teams in the league through the first two weeks but has since rattled off two straight wins, the latest being a 41-14 thumping of New England on Monday Night Football.

This one chalks up to a battle of strengths, as Kansas City brings to the table a top-five rushing attack thanks to the efforts of Jamaal Charles and backup Knile Davis:

NAME	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
Knile Davis	71	321	4.5	3
Jamaal Charles	27	115	4.3	1

Now, one can presume that the weight of the contest goes to Alex Smith's shoulders if the ground game is stifled by a strong defense, and while Smith has been unreliable at best, he did go for 248 yards and three scores against New England.

That potential for an outburst is something former coach Jim Harbaugh is well aware of, as captured by the team's Twitter account:

Harbaugh's team also ranks among the top 10 rushing squads this year thanks to the duo of Frank Gore and rookie Carlos Hyde, and truthfully, Colin Kaepernick has been just as erratic and has six touchdowns to four interceptions so far.

Given the up-and-down nature of both teams regardless of venue and spotlight, not to mention that strengths align to form what will be a war of attrition for four frames, this is one to go ahead and steer clear of regardless of how the line moves as game day approaches.

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).