NFL Picks Week 5: Game-by-Game Advice for Current Vegas Spreads

Another week, another group of games that should be highly competitive. Only two contests feature lines of more than a single score, which has been a trend recently. It showcases further parity, thus decreasing the difference between the top teams and those closer to the bottom.

Furthermore, even the seemingly elite teams have question marks. The Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos, last season's Super Bowl teams, are each only 2-1 as they emerge from a bye week. And no squads have looked overly dominant at the quarter pole.

While it certainly makes for more exciting Sunday afternoons, it also means picking games is a little more tricky. So let's take a look at each game on the Week 5 schedule and dish out some advice based on the early spreads. All lines are courtesy of Odds Shark.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)

The Vikings' new-look offense put up 41 points at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Going on the road during a short week to face the Green Bay Packers is a much bigger challenge. Aaron Rodgers and Co. found their stride in Week 4 and, with Thursday games being ripe for blowouts, Green Bay is the pick.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

Carolina is coming off two straight blowout losses. It can't get the running game going consistently and doesn't have the necessary weapons to rely heavily on the passing game. That bodes well for a Bears squad with no shortage of big-play options on the offensive side. Take the points.

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-7)

Making the switch from EJ Manuel to Kyle Orton is the right move. Manuel has been borderline terrible through four weeks. He's regularly missed open receivers and made poor decisions. It's no mistake the team has lost both games he's been asked to shoulder a bigger burden.

Coming into the season, Buffalo had a roster good enough to make the playoffs if it got average quarterback play. Manuel didn't come close to approaching that basic standard. Chris Brown of the team's official site passed along comments from head coach Doug Marrone about the switch.

"When you make a change at quarterback the one thing that I hope we all understand is that it's not all EJ's fault, but we need to get better production out of that position," he said. "We have to make adjustments and we have to make some changes because we can't keep going in the direction that we're going. The one thing I said is we need to get better every week. If we're not the onus goes on me as a leader to make changes that can help our team win."

Orton isn't the long-term answer at the position for the Bills, but he definitely gives them a better chance to compete right now. Expect an inspired performance following the switch, allowing them to cover the spread and maybe even squeak out an upset win.

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-4)

The Cowboys finally made a bigger commitment to the run. The result is a three-game winning streak with DeMarco Murray leading the league in rushing. The same formula should work in Week 5 against a Houston squad that was lackluster in a win over Buffalo and ranks 24th against the run.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)

Tampa Bay is set to play its third straight road game against a Saints team that plays better on home turf and is desperate for a win. The Bucs deserve credit for bouncing back to edge the Pittsburgh Steelers, but this game feels like a blowout for New Orleans.

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Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-4)

The Falcons have been one of the toughest teams to gauge through the first month. The offense is good enough to contend, but the defense is a mess. The latter makes it tough to trust Atlanta on the road against a Giants team that's scored 75 points over the last two weeks.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

This is a toss-up clash. The teams have combined to win five straight games. Baltimore's victories have been of higher quality, but it hasn't had to face an offense playing as well as Andrew Luck's Colts. In situations where neither side owns a clear, decisive edge, take the points.

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

LeSean McCoy is averaging less than three yards per carry. The Eagles have managed to post a 3-1 record anyway, but that type of success isn't sustainable. Their star running back must return to an MVP-level for them to contend.

The good news for Philadelphia is it gets to face a Rams defense that ranks 30th against the run. So expect the Eagles to commit to the ground game early and stick with it to take some pressure off Nick Foles and try to get the entire unit back on track.

St. Louis is coming off a bye, which makes the pick a little trickier because they will be the fresher team with a few wrinkles likely added on both sides of the ball. But Philadelphia is the far more dynamic team and should show it to score a big win.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Since the Jaguars have looked completely overmatched in every game so far, it's hard to pick them unless the line is totally outrageous. That's not the case here. The Steelers should be able to cover a touchdown despite their late slip-up against the Bucs.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)

The Titans have too many questions on the offensive side of the ball to trust them right now. Cleveland played a tough schedule before the bye, and while it only posted a 1-2 record, it didn't lose by more than a field goal. With the slate starting to get easier, this game could start a nice run for the Browns.

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-7)

Most teams prefer later bye weeks to help break up the season a little more evenly. That said, it came at a good time for the Broncos. The rebuilt defense had been struggling, and the high-powered offense wasn't showing anywhere near the same type of chemistry it did last season.

They get an immediate test after the week off, though. Arizona is one of just two undefeated teams left standing despite being forced to overcome an injury to starting quarterback Carson Palmer. Mike Sando of ESPN states the strong start shows last season was no fluke:

Arizona ranks fifth in yards allowed and second in points allowed on a per-game basis. It has enough talent on that side of the ball to keep Denver from turning the game into a shootout and should allow them to cover the spread.

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7)

This is a tricky game for the Chargers. They have been on a roll lately, but the Jets rank third in yards allowed and second in rushing. That means they should be able to control the pace and keep the game within a touchdown, even if they don't pull off the upset.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-6)

Over the last three weeks, the Chiefs lost by one score on the road against the Broncos, then scored big wins over the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots. With San Francisco being highly volatile in the early going, the underdogs should cover.

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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Even)

Though it's too soon to write off the Patriots completely, the early signs are worrisome. The defense is struggling, the rushing attack can't gain any traction and Tom Brady has looked human. It makes the unbeaten Bengals the safer pick, even on the road.

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Washington Redskins

Just when the Redskins were starting to have some positive vibes with Kirk Cousins, they put together a clunker last week. The Seahawks should be able to take advantage of those question marks on offense to score a sizable win coming out of their bye week.