Fantasy Football Week 4: Last-Minute Stat Predictions Before Sunday's Games

It's every fantasy owner's favorite time of the week. While you may have had a player or two on the field during Thursday night's game, Sunday is when the competitive juices start flowing and critical roster decisions have to be made. 

Fortunately, we are here to tell you what will happen before it does. All you have to do is sit back and absorb the knowledge that will be dropped, then you can watch your opponents squirm in anguish that they weren't smart enough to heed our advice. 

Even though that is a lot of horn-tooting, it is important to get as much information as possible before finalizing your lineup. Sometimes it can feel like an overload on your brain, but no one has ever been accused of being too prepared. 

Here are our final stat projections and some notes about the three key positions to watch in Week 4. 

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Stat Prediction	Points
1	Drew Brees	NO	at DAL	330 yards, 3 TDs	26
2	Philip Rivers	SD	vs. JAC	310, 3 TDs	25
3	Le'Veon Bell	PIT	vs. TB	123 yards, 2 TDs	24
4	DeMarco Murray	DAL	vs. NO	110 yards, TD	22
5	Aaron Rodgers	GB	at CHI	296 yards, 2 TDs	21
6	Julio Jones	ATL	at MIN	110 yards, TD	18
7	Matt Forte	CHI	vs. GB	96 yards, TD	18
8	Jordy Nelson	GB	at CHI	92 yards, TD	17
9	Colin Kaepernick	SF	vs. PHI	230 yards, 2 TDs	17
10	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	vs. TB	244 yards, 2 TDs	17
11	Matthew Stafford	DET	at NYJ	307 yards, TD	16
12	Nick Foles	PHI	at SF	243 yards, 2 TDs	16
13	Jimmy Graham	NO	at DAL	87 yards, TD	15
14	Andrew Luck	IND	vs. TEN	237 yards, 2 TDs	15
15	Jay Cutler	CHI	vs. GB	252 yards, 2 TDs	15
16	Calvin Johnson	DET	at NYJ	86 yards, TD	14
17	Dez Bryant	DAL	vs. NO	82 yards, TD	14
18	Lamar Miller	MIA	at OAK	132 total yards	13
19	Tom Brady	NE	at KC	217 yards, 2 TDs	13
20	Tony Romo	DAL	vs. NO	227 yards, 2 TDs	13

Quarterback

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

If you like quarterbacks, this is the weekend you have been waiting for in fantasy football. Even with Peyton Manning on a bye, look at all the matchups around the league, and it would be a shock if there weren't several games with both teams scoring at least 28 points. 

The best quarterback play of the weekend, even though I have him listed at No. 2, is Philip Rivers. Anytime you see Jacksonville's defense on the other side of the field, fantasy owners start salivating like a dog looking at a rare steak. 

According to ESPN's standard scoring, through three games, opposing quarterbacks have totaled 63 points. Last week, Andrew Luck had 31 points with 370 passing yards and four touchdowns. Even if Rivers doesn't reach that zeitgeist, he's a lock for at least 20 points. 

Also making Rivers a must-start fantasy quarterback, regardless of the opponent, is his poise in the pocket. ESPN's Numbers Never Lie listed the top three quarterbacks after Week 3, with San Diego's quarterback coming in second:

Looking further down the list, even though his team is struggling, Colin Kaepernick is emerging as a consistent No. 1 fantasy quarterback. He had the hiccup against Chicago in Week 2 but has racked up 35 points in the other two games. 

This week, Kaepernick has the luxury of going up against a Philadelphia defense that has allowed 78 points and the third-most passing yards. It's also amazing what having a full complement of receivers has done for the 49ers quarterback, via Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle:

Whether San Francisco is able to put its second-half funk in the rear-view mirror this week is irrelevant to fantasy owners. Play the 49ers quarterback and reap the rewards. 

If you are looking for a sleeper to use because your regular starter is on a bye or has a bad matchup, Mike Glennon is an attractive option. While I wouldn't judge him off last week's 17-of-24 performance against Atlanta because it came in garbage time, which basically started in the second quarter, but there were signs last year that he was figuring things out. 

Josh McCown is likely out against Pittsburgh with a thumb injury, according to the Tampa Bay Times, so Glennon will get his first start of 2014. He threw for 2,608 yards and 19 touchdowns in 13 games as a rookie. 

The Steelers have been stingy in terms of pass yards allowed (223.7), but opposing quarterbacks have five touchdown passes in three games and four in the last two weeks. Look for the Buccaneers to get their stagnant passing game going with a better quarterback under center. 

Running Back

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Since this is a week to love quarterbacks, the position that suffers is running back. Looking at things from the outside before games start, you can make a case that it will be a struggle for anyone to break the 100-yard barrier. 

Of course, if there's one player you can count on this week, it's Le'Veon Bell. Pittsburgh's running back has been incredible through three weeks with 48 points thus far and has a favorable matchup with the hapless Tampa Bay defense. 

The most impressive thing about Bell's start to the season is it's not happening with any kind of gimmicks. According to the official Sunday Night Football on NBC Twitter account, he's breaking big runs right through the middle of Pittsburgh's line:

The Buccaneers have been equally inept at stopping the run and pass, so the Steelers have their pick of how to attack Lovie Smith's defense. If there's one thing we know about the black and yellow, it's that they want to win by running the ball. 

Ben Roethlisberger will get his yards and maybe even a couple of touchdowns along the way, but Bell will be the star of the show. 

DeMarco Murray and Matt Forte are harder to figure out. The Cowboys seem to have figured out that the best path to victory is running the ball, and Murray leads the NFL in rushing yards, but there's some part of me that expects Jason Garrett to focus on trying to let Tony Romo exploit New Orleans' soft secondary. 

Forte is going against the worst run defense he's faced all year when the Bears host the Packers, but he's also playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. He should still rack up yards through the passing game, but don't count on another huge day like he had in Week 1 against Buffalo. 

Speaking of that Packers-Bears game, if Eddie Lacy's early-season misery doesn't end in this game, it's time to hit the panic button. You can excuse his 3.1 yards-per-carry average in games against Seattle, New York and Detroit. As Patrick Daugherty of NBC Sports pointed out, the Bears aren't even in the same league as those three defenses when it comes to stopping the run:

Don't expect a full return to form for Lacy with more than 100 yards and a touchdown, but if he's not over 75 yards with more than four yards per carry, there is a problem. 

Wide Receiver

Jason Miller/Getty Images

The big question at wide receiver is what's going to happen with Calvin Johnson. He missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury before returning on Friday. It's unfortunate for fantasy owners that Megatron could be limited in any way because New York's secondary is ripe for the picking. 

Even though he's not technically a wide receiver, Jimmy Graham has the right matchup to emerge as the top pass-catcher in Week 4. Dallas' defense may not be as bad as we thought, but it's had a host of issues covering tight ends, via Charean Williams of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

One of the most pleasant surprises early in the season has been Steve Smith Sr. finding the old form that made him such a valuable asset for Carolina. The Ravens have to be thrilled with what the veteran has done, with two 100-yard games in three weeks. 

Smith also looks like the clear No. 1 receiver for Joe Flacco with Torrey Smith being M.I.A for most of the season. He should also get more looks with Dennis Pitta out due to another unfortunate hip injury. The 35-year-old is being targeted at an astounding rate (31 times in three games) and averages a hefty 16.1 yards per reception. 

This week, the Ravens are matched up with Carolina, which is normally murder for wide receivers. The Panthers have the eighth-ranked pass defense through three weeks, but you know Smith will be extra motivated to have a great game against his former team. 

Usually, using motivation as a key trait for why a player will be great leads to disappointment. Fortunately for Smith, the numbers and Flacco's use of him thus far also support a big weekend. 

The sleeper for the weekend is Vincent Jackson, who has been a huge bust as part of Tampa Bay's anemic passing offense. He's got 15 points and one touchdown through three weeks, but an encouraging sign is that Buccaneers quarterbacks have targeted him 25 times. 

Another reason for liking Jackson is the return of Glennon under center. These two built a good rapport last season, with Rotoviz noting that the veteran wideout was a solid No. 2 fantasy wideout with the young quarterback last season, via Graham Barfield of Number Fire:

We all had doubts about McCown's ability to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, which so far have proven to be right. With the Buccaneers being able to look at their young signal caller for at least one week, the rest of the offense should open up. 

Jackson may not be a No. 1 fantasy option anymore, but in the right situation still has value as a good No. 2 or flex option. Sometimes that's good enough to get you by on a week with Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Wes Welker and A.J. Green all on a bye. 

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