NFL Picks Week 4: Game-by-Game Advice for Current Vegas Spreads

Even though Week 3 answered some questions around the NFL, there are still plenty to answer in the weeks ahead. Parity has been the name of the game in the early going, with no teams looking overly dominant at the outset.

The high level of competitiveness is highlighted by the fact the San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts are all 1-2. There's still plenty of time for those contenders to get back on track, but the margin for error is already shrinking.

With that in mind, let's check out the complete slate for Week 4 along with an early outlook for each contest based on the current Vegas odds. It's a slightly smaller schedule this week as byes begin. All lines are courtesy of Odds Shark.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-3.5)

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Washington is an undervalued team right now. While it's 1-2, it ranks inside the top 10 in passing and rushing on both offense and defense. Furthermore, both losses came on the road. Those peripheral facts suggest better days are ahead.

It also helps that Kirk Cousins stepped in for Robert Griffin III and played extremely well. He threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns with just one interception, but the Philadelphia Eagles offense was a shade better. John Keim of ESPN.com notes head coach Jay Gruden was impressed with the outing.

"Other than the pick he had a good game," Gruden said. "Sometimes he got a little antsy in there and threw balls a little early. But that's just part of being in the pocket again and feeling the rush and knowing how much time you have. Overall man, to throw for over 400 yards on the road, he did an excellent job."

The Giants are coming off their best showing of the season so far in a win over the Houston Texans. It was a step in the right direction but doesn't totally erase the memory of the two clunkers they opened with. The Redskins should win by at least a touchdown.

Miami Dolphins (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders

After opening with a victory over the New England Patriots, the Dolphins have lost back-to-back games by a combined score of 63-25. That's good news for a struggling Raiders offense, which should finally be able to find a rhythm and keep the game within a field goal.

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

A tricky game to call after the Panthers were blown out at home by the Pittsburgh Steelers, eliminating any positive vibes from the 2-0 start. The key will be Baltimore's running game, which has continued to thrive regardless of who starts and should lead the charge against the 27th-ranked rush defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)

After two narrow losses to open the campaign, the Bucs opened a three-game road swing by getting blown out by the Atlanta Falcons. The expected improvement on defense under head coach Lovie Smith hasn't occurred, making Pittsburgh a solid choice to cover the spread.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1)

It's weird to see an Aaron Rodgers-led passing attack that's averaging barely over 200 yards per game. The unit needs some secondary targets beyond Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb to step up. Meanwhile, the Bears are suddenly clicking after two straight road wins, making them the safer choice.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)

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This game should go a long way in illustrating which team is a bigger playoff threat. The Bills must avoid situations like Week 3 where they fell behind early and needed EJ Manuel to attempt a comeback. Former Bills quarterback and current Texans starter Ryan Fitzpatrick made too many mistakes of his own on Sunday.

With both quarterbacks being question marks, the focus shifts to the defenses. That's good news for Buffalo, which has been able to shut down opposing running games and has forced teams to beat them through the air, exactly the type of game Houston doesn't want.

On the other hand, the Texans are giving up more than 140 yards per game on the ground. It's not a good sign as they prepare to face C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. The signs all point toward a golden chance for the Bills to pull off a minor upset on the road.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)

The biggest takeaway from Indianapolis' games so far is that the team is beatable if the opposing offense is good enough to keep pace. That's not the case here, as the Titans have questions under center and remain too reliant on Shonn Greene on the ground.

Detroit Lions at New York Jets (Even)

Over the past two weeks, the Jets defense allowed the aforementioned Rodgers and Jay Cutler to throw for a combined 571 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. Matthew Stafford and Co. should follow a similar road to victory this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-13.5)

Jacksonville outscored the Eagles 17-0 in the first half of Week 1. Since that point, opposing teams are beating the Jaguars by a combined score of 119-27. It shows the Jags are simply overmatched and makes San Diego the pick despite the high line.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Unsurprisingly, the Minnesota offense has struggled over the past couple weeks. It's scored just 16 points in losses to the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints. Things won't get any better against the Falcons and their top-ranked passing game.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)

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This sure seems like a trap spread. The undefeated Eagles, which have scored at least 30 points in every game, are getting nearly two field goals from the 1-2 49ers. Normally, when a line feels too good to be true, it usually is.

That's certainly the case here. Remember, San Francisco was viewed as one of the top choices to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl just a couple weeks ago. Pete Prisco of CBS Sports thinks this is the team's chance to prove it still belongs among the elite:

The 49ers defense ranks sixth in yards allowed and should be able to at least slow down the high-powered Philadelphia offense. San Francisco also has a running game capable of controlling the pace. Those two factors will allow it to win and cover the interesting spread.

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Dallas Cowboys

The Saints were able to slow down the Vikings. The question is whether the defense can stand tall against a more dangerous group of Cowboys targets on the road. Given how well the Dallas offense has played over the past few weeks, led by DeMarco Murray, take the points with the home team.

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

New England's offense has looked out of sync in the early going. Perhaps it's finally reached a point where Tom Brady can't elevate a lackluster receiving corps enough to make it an elite unit. It makes Kansas City the pick against the spread after its solid road win over Miami.