Week 4 Fantasy Football Projections: Stat Predictions for Top 100 Players

If you think your fantasy squad is thin after three weeks, things are going to get extremely difficult with bye weeks about to wreak havoc. 

Week 4 is especially nasty, with the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams taking the week off.

Some—such as the guy (sadly points at self) who owns Demaryius Thomas, Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, Michael Floyd, Jordan Cameron and Jeremy Hill in the same league—will want to cry themselves to sleep at night. Others, such as Yahoo Sports' Scott Pianowski, will welcome the challenge:

With the need to dive a little deeper, let's take a gander at the outlook for each of the top 100 individual players (no kickers, because I refuse to dole out kicker advice) in Week 4. 

Thursday, Sept. 25	Time (ET)
Sunday, Sept. 28	Time (ET)
Monday, Sept. 29	Time (ET)
Bye Week Teams
NY Giants at Washington	8:25 p.m.
Miami at Oakland	1 p.m.
Green Bay at Chicago	1 p.m.
Buffalo at Houston	1 p.m.
Tennessee at Indianapolis	1 p.m.
Carolina at Baltimore	1 p.m.
Detroit at NY Jets	1 p.m.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh	1 p.m.
Jacksonville at San Diego	4:05 p.m.
Philadelphia at San Francisco	4:25 p.m.
Atlanta at Minnesota	4:25 p.m.
New Orleans at Dallas	8:30 p.m.
New England at Kansas City	8:30 p.m.
Cincinnati	Cleveland
Denver	St. Louis
Arizona	Seattle

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Drew Brees, NO	330 PAS, 3 TD
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	375 PAS, 3 TD
3	Matthew Stafford, DET	285 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
4	Matt Ryan, ATL	270 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
5	Andrew Luck, IND	255 PAS, 25 RUS, 2 TD
6	Philip Rivers, SD	270 PAS, 2 TD
7	Nick Foles, PHI	240 PAS, 2 TD, 2 INT
8	Cam Newton, CAR	220 PAS, 40 RUS, 1 TD, 1 INT
9	Tom Brady, NE	215 PAS, 2 TD
10	Tony Romo, DAL	305 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
11	Colin Kaepernick, SF	275 PAS, 35 RUS, 1 TD, 1 INT
12	Jay Cutler, CHI	340 PAS, 3 TD, 2 INT
13	Kirk Cousins, WAS	265 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
14	Eli Manning, NYG	250 PAS, 1 TD, 1 INT
15	Joe Flacco, BAL	205 PAS, 1 TD
16	Geno Smith, NYJ	220 PAS, 30 RUS, 1 TD, 2 INT
17	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	275 PAS, 2 TD
18	Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	185 PAS, 1 TD, 1 INT
19	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	235 PAS, 1 TD
20	Alex Smith, KC	200 PAS, 30 RUS, 1 INT
21	Jake Locker, TEN	250 PAS, 30 RUS, 1 TD, 2 INT
22	Blake Bortles, JAX	260 PAS, 20 RUS, 2 TD, 2 INT
23	Mike Glennon, TB	200 PAS, 1 TD, 1 INT
24	Derek Carr, OAK	190 PAS, 1 TD, 1 INT
25	EJ Manuel, BUF	210 PAS, 20 RUS, 1 TD

Sleeper: Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

John Raoux/Associated Press

You heard it time and time again throughout the summer: "Chad Henne is the guy in 2014; rookie Blake Bortles will "redshirt" the season."

But Bortles increased the pressure on the coaching staff with an electrifying preseason, and Gus Bradley was forced to make the switch after just five halves of ineffective play from Henne. That's all it took. One hundred fifty minutes for the coaching staff to reverse what was thought to be an inexorable position. 

Even with as bad as Henne has played, that should tell you all you need to know about what the Jags see in Teenage Mutant Ninja Bortles, who will start Sunday against San Diego, per Jaguars.com's John Oehser:

And he has clearly earned the confidence from those around him, via Oehser:

Bortles won't likely be throwing 24 times per half like he did against Indianapolis on Sunday, but with Jacksonville's run game struggling and big deficits likely a common trend, there's going to be a ton of volume. Combine that with his tantalizing skill set—athleticism to escape pressure and a strong arm—and a slew of intriguing young receivers, and you've got a recipe for fantasy success. 

Although a matchup at San Diego—the Chargers have allowed just 16.3 points per game so far—doesn't look great on the surface, the Bolts are 19th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.3) and have laid the way for solid fantasy days from Carson Palmer (21.06 standard fantasy points), Russell Wilson (17.88) and E.J. Manuel (15.92).

Starting a rookie quarterback is risky, but Bortles is a high-upside QB2 with Wilson, Peyton Manning and Andy Dalton on the pine. 

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Projections
1	DeMarco Murray, DAL	115 RUS, 25 REC, 1 TD
2	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	170 RUS, 40 REC, 2 TD
3	LeSean McCoy, PHI	85 RUS, 30 REC
4	Arian Foster, HOU	100 RUS, 1 TD
5	Matt Forte, CHI	70 RUS, 70 REC, 1 TD
6	Alfred Morris, WAS	110 RUS, 1 TD
7	Eddie Lacy, GB	80 RUS, 1 TD
8	Knile Davis, KC	75 RUS, 30 REC
9	Donald Brown, SD	120 RUS, 20 REC, 1 TD
10	Rashad Jennings, NYG	40 RUS, 40 REC
11	Stevan Ridley, NE	75 RUS
12	Lamar Miller, MIA	90 RUS, 30 REC, 1 TD
13	Frank Gore, SF	60 RUS, 1 TD
14	Khiry Robinson, NO	85 RUS
15	C.J. Spiller, BUF	55 RUS, 40 REC
16	Bernard Pierce, BAL	60 RUS
17	Reggie Bush, DET	10 RUS, 35 REC
18	Ahmad Bradshaw, IND	80 RUS, 30 REC, 1 TD
19	Steven Jackson, ATL	50 RUS
20	Matt Asiata, MIN	40 RUS, 40 REC
21	Doug Martin, TB	50 RUS, 25 REC
22	Darren Sproles, PHI	15 RUS, 40 REC
23	Joique Bell, DET	25 RUS, 40 REC, 1 TD
24	Toby Gerhart, JAX	45 RUS
25	Chris Johnson, NYJ	30 RUS
26	Pierre Thomas, NO	35 RUS, 35 REC
27	Trent Richardson, IND	50 RUS, 20 REC
29	Darren McFadden, OAK	45 RUS
29	Justin Forsett, BAL	25 RUS, 40 REC
30	Shonn Greeen, TEN	50 RUS, 1 TD

Sleeper: Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Through three games, Trent Richardson has received 48 touches to Ahmad Bradshaw's 37. Richardson has turned those into 226 yards (4.7 yards per touch), while Bradshaw has produced a much more efficient 264 yards (7.1 YPT). 

Of course, you don't need the numbers to tell you what is so painfully clear: Bradshaw is much better at this whole footballing thing than Richardson. For every time Richardson slowly plods into a nonexistent hole, Bradshaw is exploding into space and breaking tackles. 

John Paulsen of 4for4.com put is simply in fantasy terms:

According to Pro Football Focus, Bradshaw broke four tackles on just 11 touches Sunday, piling up 83 yards and a touchdown. The Colts are likely trying to keep him healthy with a smaller workload, but with each new impressive performance, his playing time increases: six touches in Week 1, 18 in Week 2 and nine in just the first half of Week 3 (11 total) before the game got out of hand and he wasn't needed. 

Pep Hamilton will continue carving out a bigger role for him in the offense, and against a Titans defense allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game, Bradshaw is going to have another big day. 

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Calvin Johnson, DET	105 REC, 1 TD
2	Dez Bryant, DAL	120 REC, 2 TD
3	Julio Jones, ATL	80 REC, 2 TD
4	Antonio Brown, PIT	90 REC
5	Brandon Marshall, CHI	75 REC, 1 TD
6	Jordy Nelson, GB	120 REC, 1 TD
7	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	100 REC
8	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	70 REC, 1 TD
9	Pierre Garcon, WAS	80 REC
10	Andre Johnson, HOU	90 REC
11	Randall Cobb, GB	65 REC, 1 TD
12	Steve Smith, BAL	95 REC
13	Julian Edelman, NE	85 REC
14	Mike Wallace, MIA	105, 1 TD
15	Victor Cruz, NYG	75 REC, 1 TD
16	Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN	60 REC, 30 RUS
17	Michael Crabtree, SF	95 REC
18	Keenan Allen, SD	80 REC, 1 TD
19	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	75 REC
20	Brandin Cooks, NO	70 REC, 1 TD
21	DeSean Jackson, WAS	85 REC, 1 TD
22	T.Y. Hilton, IND	75 REC, 1 TD
23	Vincent Jackson, TB	50 REC, 1 TD
24	Reggie Wayne, IND	60 REC
25	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	75 REC, 1 TD
26	Roddy White, ATL	65 REC, 1 TD
27	Eric Decker, NYJ	60 REC
28	Marques Colston, NO	45 REC
29	Sammy Watkins, BUF	55 REC
30	Golden Tate, DET	65 REC, 1 TD
31	James Jones, OAK	70 REC
32	Kendall Wright, TEN	40 REC
33	Allen Robinson, JAX	70 REC, 1 TD
34	Terrance Williams, DAL	45 REC
35	Greg Jennings, MIN	60 REC

Sleeper: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The Packers offense has struggled to find cohesion so far, but the quality of the opponents (at Seattle, vs. New York Jets, at Detroit) has had plenty to do with that. As long as Aaron Rodgers is at the helm, though, the Pack will eventually start moving the ball more efficiently. 

There's no better time for that to happen than Week 4 against the Chicago Bears. 

Geno Smith, who wasn't at his best, threw for a healthy 7.3 yards per attempt against Chicago Monday night, and injuries are quickly starting to pile up. Charles Tillman is on injured reserve, while safeties Chris Conte and Ryan Mundy (stinger) both left Monday's game with shoulder injuries. 

Pair that with the Bears' weapons on offense, and this just wreaks of a shootout.

Davante Adams is still fighting with Jarrett Boykin for playing time, but their snaps are about even right now, and the rookie is far more talented. Rotoworld's Adam Levitan offered the following comparison:

Adams is the third-best option in this passing game, and that makes him a legitimate flex play in what will be a high-scoring game. 

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Jimmy Graham, NO	90 REC, 2 TD
2	Rob Gronkowski, NE	50 REC, 1 TD
3	Greg Olsen, CAR	70 REC, 1 TD
4	Delanie Walker, TEN	65 REC
5	Niles Paul, WAS	55 REC, 1 TD
6	Martellus Bennett, CHI	40 REC, 1 TD
7	Antonio Gates, SD	80 REC
8	Larry Donnell, NYG	75 REC
9	Jason Witten, DAL	40 REC, 1 TD
10	Zach Ertz, PHI	50 REC

Sleeper: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

It would appear Andy Reid finally signed onto Twitter and read the endless pleas from the fantasy football community begging for more Travis Kelce. Either that, or he realized what a ridiculously unique weapon he has in the passing game. 

Kelce tallied seven catches for 130 yards in the Chiefs' first two games, and he did it despite being on the field for less than half of the team's offensive snaps. According to Paulsen, that changed dramatically in Week 3, as he hauled in his first touchdown:

The second-year product out of Cincinnati is 6'5" and 260 pounds with unfair speed and agility. He is the epitome of "matchup nightmare," and when he gets the ball in the open field, the play is likely to end with him barreling over defenders. 

Now that he's getting on the field consistently, he's a TE1.