AL Wild-Card Race 2014: Breaking Down Every Contender's Postseason Chances

It's officially crunch time in the race for the MLB playoffs, and no battle late in the season is more exciting than the wild-card race in the American League. 

You have everything from a club recently leading the majors who is struggling to organizations vying to make history for their fans with a rare postseason appearance. Sprinkle in a few teams that need drastic miracles to happen, and it's certain that the two who make it to the Wild Card Game will be well deserving.

While all that they are fighting for is one fateful game to decide a wild-card winner, it's a ticket to the dance, and it's much better than the other option—finishing the 162-game season with nothing to show.

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays aren't mathematically out of the running yet. But with 4.5 and 5.5 games respectively to make up against three teams in just eight games, we focused on the four teams that have realistic chances.

Let's take a closer look at each team in the AL wild-card hunt.

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Oakland	84	70	.545	-
Seattle	83	70	.542	-
Kansas City	83	70	.542	-
Cleveland	79	74	.516	4
NY Yankees	79	75	.513	4.5
Toronto	78	76	.506	5.5
Tampa Bay	74	80	.481	9.5

Oakland Athletics

USA TODAY Sports

From royalty to despair, the Oakland Athletics' late-season free fall is one of the worst collapses in baseball's recent memory.

Once upon a time, the A's were leading the majors in wins and making a deal for Jon Lester to solidify what was—by far—the AL's best rotation on paper. But that hasn't translated to the field.

Oakland is a whopping 12-26 over its last 38 games. It was 72-44 on the season before undergoing this awful losing spell.

Fortunately for the A's, their incredible start to 2014 has kept them around in the wild-card hunt despite conceding the AL West in embarrassing fashion to the Los Angeles Angels. They hold a three-way tie with Seattle and Kansas City as of Saturday.

After closing out the Phillies series on Sunday, the A's will face the Angels at home—who may be playing plenty of call-ups with the playoffs around the corner, but will still try to keep their rivals out of the playoffs. 

It's likely that the A's season will come down to a four-game road stand against baseball's worst team—the Texas Rangers. But before you pencil Oakland into the Wild Card Game, it's worth noting that the Athletics were swept by that same Texas team just days ago.

Oakland is playing its worst baseball of the season at the least opportune moment, and what once looked like a World Series-contending season is slipping away.

Predicted wild card chances: 30 percent

Kansas City Royals

USA TODAY Sports

Coming off an incredible August surge, the Kansas City Royals are just trying to hold on in the AL wild-card race.

Flirting around the .500 mark for most of the season, the Royals went on a tear throughout the second half of the season including a 19-4 stretch in August. They headed up the wild-card standings a few times as of late, but the Detroit Tigers have sent them back down to earth with two straight losses.

Kansas City will have a big shot to assert its status with its upcoming series against the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland hails just four games back, so not only would a series sweep almost ruin the Royals' playoff hopes, but it would allow for their divisional foe to creep into the conversation.

Like the A's, the Royals will finish the season out on the road with a four-game series. Kansas City will travel to face the Chicago White Sox, and a 10-5 season record against them indicates the Royals should be favored to win that series.

So much is on the line for a team that few expected to be in this position and an organization that hasn't sniffed the playoffs since its 1985 World Series title. It will be a battle, but the Royals have proven their girth with this late-season surge, and they won't come up short now.

Predicted wild card chances: 70 percent

Seattle Mariners

Bob Levey/Getty Images

If the Mariners were going to make the ascension to the playoffs in 2014, it was expected to come largely off a dominant lineup led by new signing Robinson Cano. Instead, elite pitching has put Seattle on the cusp of the postseason.

With the best ERA (3.04) and opposing batting average (.228) in the majors, the Mariners' rotation—led by star Felix Hernandez—has shut down opponents all season long. But it took until late in the year for things to completely click.

Just three games over .500 at the start of August, the Mariners only lost 10 games in the month—three of which came at the very end. They have kept it up into September, winning six of eight to start the month.

Seattle looks to finish out a road series against the Astros strong, after which it could have a lead in the wild-card hunt. From then on, a four-game road stand at Toronto and a three-game home series to close out against the Angels will decide the Mariners' fate.

There is little room for error, but the Mariners are one of two teams headed in the right direction, and their facing off with the Royals in the Wild Card Game looks to be the likeliest outcome.

Predicted wild card chances: 75 percent

Cleveland Indians

USA TODAY Sports

The Mariners, Royals and A's are all at the front of the pack fighting for position, and the Indians are frantically trying to play catch-up.

Like most of its wild-card competition, Cleveland was around .500—actually below it—to start the month of August. Just over a month-and-a-half later, they're four games out of the wild-card lead.

The Indians have to make up ground on two of the three teams ahead of them before September 28, but it will get a great chance to catch one in their next series. They face the Royals at home, and a series sweep could do wonders for their chances.

Should they pull off that feat, Cleveland will still have to make up some ground in its final home series against Tampa Bay. 

It will be an impossible task to sweep the Royals on the road with what is on the line for both teams, and failing to do so will effectively put an end to Cleveland's chances.

Predicted wild card chances: 10 percent