NFL Predictions Week 3: Last-Minute Picks and Advice for Sunday's Schedule

Sunday, otherwise known as the day bettors make the most mistakes on NFL spreads. 

Any kind of work on a deadline is difficult, but NFL odds work in the final hours before kickoff can be the most volatile. Odds whirling, injury reports finally getting released and a copious amount of he-said, she-said from analysts leads to a rough time.

As is the case in the entire week leading up to the big day, the best approach is consistently simple—don't over-think it.

This week is especially difficult with so few large spreads, so be sure to do the homework and stay as cool as Tom Brady in a crumpling pocket. Here is what the rest of the week's lineup looks like.

NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
San Diego at Buffalo	BUF (-1)	San Diego	Buffalo is a nice surprise, but the Chargers enter after a win over Seattle and Philip Rivers has been unstoppable.
Dallas at St. Louis	EVEN	Dallas	Tony Romo may regress to Week 1 form on the road, but St. Louis can't keep up.
Washington at Philadelphia	PHI (-7)	Philadelphia	We need to see Kirk Cousins beat a team not named the Jaguars before jumping fully on board.
Houston at NY Giants	HOU (-1)	Houston	See analysis below.
Minnesota at New Orleans	NO (-11.5)	New Orleans	A reluctance to use Cordarrelle Patterson is the last thing Minnesota needed last week—the staff did it anyway.
Tennessee at Cincinnati	CIN (-7)	Cincinnati	See analysis below.
Baltimore at Cleveland	EVEN	Baltimore	Joe Flacco's offense seems to be in tune after a rocky start, which will be enough on the road.
Green Bay at Detroit	DET (-2.5)	Detroit	Green Bay's miserable offensive line is going to cause issues in Detroit.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	IND (-7)	Indianapolis	Andrew Luck normally can't do it all on his own, but he sure can against these Jaguars.
Oakland at New England	NE (-15.5)	Oakland	The least talented team in the league has sure started to play like it.
San Francisco at Arizona	SF (-2.5)	San Francisco	A team perhaps without Carson Palmer doesn't get to play the Giants two weeks in a row.
Denver at Seattle	SEA (-4.5)	Seattle	Seattle rebounds after a loss. Really, it doesn't lose at home.
Kansas City at Miami	MIA (-4)	Miami	No Jamaal Charles (whether due to injury or poor coaching), no win.
Pittsburgh at Carolina	CAR (-3)	Carolina	Carolina will have no issue running all over the Pittsburgh defense.
Chicago at NY Jets	NYJ (-2.5)	Chicago	As seen last week, New York cannot when when it gets into a shootout with a potent offense.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 8 p.m. ET, Sept. 20. 

Houston at New York Giants

It is almost as if Las Vegas does not care that the Houston Texans are one of the NFL's lone undefeated teams.

The Texans, otherwise known as the team that lost 14 games last season.

Wins over Washington and Oakland are nothing to write home about, but one over the downtrodden New York Giants wouldn't be, either.

The biggest point of contention by most this year has been the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the starter under center, but he has done exactly what coach Bill O'Brien brought him on to do—manage the game. So far, he has thrown for 345 yards and three scores with no interceptions while leaning on an elite ground game.

That facet is led by a rejuvenated Arian Foster, who already has 241 yards and a score on the ground. While New York's defense seems to have solid numbers against the rush, that is because Detroit and Arizona were too busy torching the miserable unit through the air.

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

"I think when you are 0-2, you want to get a win soon," said Eli Manning, per STATS LLC, via ESPN.com. "We have the Texans coming in and we have another home game, so hopefully we've got to get better, but we have to do it soon. We don't have a whole lot of time to keep waiting to get better."

Manning's offense cannot be trusted to make up for a leaky defense at this point, as it has scored all of 14 points apiece through two games, and the veteran himself looks every part of the man who led the league in interceptions last season, having thrown four already.

In fact, the Giants lead the league with six turnovers already and have yet to force one of their own. Now Manning, with a lack of a running game behind him (lead back Rashad Jennings has all of 110 yards and a score behind a porous line), Manning is in for a long day against a defense led by J.J. Watt.

Houston takes care of the football, and New York gives it away. It really writes itself.

Prediction: Texans 23, Giants 14

Tennessee at Cincinnati

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Tennessee Titans do a few things quite well.

One of them is rush the passer. The team has amassed four sacks in each of its first two games so far. This can be attributed to talented names such as linebackers Derrick Morgan and Kamerion Wimbley, who rank as the No. 2 and No. 23 players in the NFL at their position, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

That talent extends to the trenches, too, thanks to Jurrell Casey and Karl Klug, ends who rank at No. 2 and No. 6, respectively, at PFF.

The problem is, for all the good the Titans do, the Bengals do it better, and more of it.

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Cincinnati has an elite defense that has allowed all of 26 combined points through two games. It held Atlanta's Matt Ryan to 231 yards and a touchdown while picking him off three times. That Falcons offense that just destroyed Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football? It scored 10 against Cincinnati.

The Bengals also have an elite ground game led by back Giovani Bernard, who ran for 90 yards and a score with another 79 yards through the air against the Falcons alone. Quarterback Andy Dalton appears to have taken that proverbial next step, too, having yet to throw an interception or even be sacked.

There is little reason to believe that Titans quarterback Jake Locker will be able to do what Ryan could not, especially a week removed from leading his team to all of 10 points against a miserable Dallas defense.

Cincinnati can and will get on the board multiple times, and when that happens, the run-first Titans will be unable to keep up in a hostile environment.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Titans 17

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).