Predicting Each 2014 MLB 'Bubble' Team's Record Down the Home Stretch
The Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals punched their playoff tickets Tuesday night, but there are still a number of races yet to be decided with less than two weeks to go in the 2014 MLB season.
Add the Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers to the list of teams that look to be a lock to be playing in October. But that leaves three playoff slots in each league to still be sorted out.
In the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates are battling it out for the NL Central title. Whoever misses out there will contend with the San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers for the two wild cards, so there are essentially four teams fighting for three spots right now.
It's a similar story in the American League, where the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are neck and neck in the AL Central. The runner-up there will battle the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners for the wild cards, making it four teams and three spots on the AL side of things as well.
What follows is a complete breakdown of each remaining game for those aforementioned eight teams, complete with the starting pitcher they are expected to face as of now and a win-loss prediction for each game.
Obviously, things can change on the projected pitcher side of things, as guys return from injury and teams shuffle their rotations around off days, but this is simply a preliminary look at how things could shake out over the next week and a half.
*Note: The stats given alongside each projected starter reflect how that pitcher has performed on the year against the team being highlighted. Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference and current though play on Tuesday, Sept. 16.
Detroit Tigers (84-67)
1 of 10
Remaining Schedule
| @ MIN (Price) | Kyle Gibson (3 GS, 1-2, 7.24 ERA) | W |
| @ KC (Lobstein) | Jeremy Guthrie (3 GS, 1-2, 10.13 ERA) | W |
| @ KC (Verlander) | Jason Vargas (4 GS, 1-2, 5.18 ERA) | W |
| @ KC (Scherzer) | James Shields (4 GS, 1-2, 4.05 ERA) | L |
| v. CWS (Porcello) | Chris Bassitt (1 GS, 0-1, 7.11 ERA) | W |
| v. CWS (Price) | Chris Sale (2 GS, 1-1, 2.57 ERA) | L |
| v. CWS (Lobstein) | Jose Quintana (4 GS, 2-1, 3.60 ERA) | L |
| v. MIN (Verlander) | Logan Darnell (N/A) | W |
| v. MIN (Scherzer) | Trevor May (1 GS, 0-1, 8.44 ERA) | W |
| v. MIN (Porcello) | Ricky Nolasco (2 GS, 0-0, 2.03 ERA) | L |
| v. MIN (Price) | Kyle Gibson (3 GS, 1-2, 7.24 ERA) | W |
Home Stretch Record: 7-4
Overview
The Detroit Tigers enter play Wednesday with a 1.5-game lead over the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central and looking to secure a series win against the Minnesota Twins with David Price taking the ball.
That is followed by the highly anticipated weekend series against the second-place Royals in Kansas City. The Tigers have owned the head-to-head matchup this season at 11-5, and that includes 6-1 in KC. Chalk up another series win, though Royals ace James Shields out-duels Max Scherzer on Sunday to prevent the sweep.
From there, a series against the Chicago White Sox may seem like a reprieve, but it won't be a walk in the park, with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana both scheduled to start. With the season series knotted up at 8-8, the White Sox walk away with a small victory in a long season and claim the season series behind their lefty duo.
Despite that, the Tigers still enter the final series of the year with a three-game lead over the Royals (more on that in a minute), and they clinch the division during the second game of the Twins series.
Don't be surprised if it's not Rick Porcello or David Price pitching in those final two games then, but we'll say one way or another the Tigers split the final two to finish 91-71 on the year as they claim their fourth straight AL Central title.
Kansas City Royals (82-68)
2 of 10
Remaining Schedule
| v. CWS (Ventura) | Chris Sale (2 GS, 2-0, 0.60 ERA) | L |
| v. DET (Guthrie) | Kyle Lobstein (N/A) | L |
| v. DET (Vargas) | Justin Verlander (5 GS, 2-2, 5.57 ERA) | L |
| v. DET (Shields) | Max Scherzer (3 GS, 1-1, 5.30 ERA) | W |
| v. CLE (??) | Suspended Game (CLE up 4-2 in BOT 10) | L |
| @ CLE (Duffy) | Corey Kluber (4 GS, 2-1, 1.15 ERA) | L |
| @ CLE (Ventura) | Carlos Carrasco (3 G, 0-1, 2.25 ERA) | W |
| @ CLE (Guthrie) | Danny Salazar (3 GS, 2-1, 3.86 ERA) | W |
| @ CWS (Vargas) | Hector Noesi (1 GS, 0-1, 4.91 ERA) | W |
| @ CWS (Shields) | John Danks (2 GS, 0-0, 2.08 ERA) | W |
| @ CWS (Duffy) | Chris Bassitt (1 GS, 0-0, 7.36 ERA) | W |
| @ CWS (Ventura) | Chris Sale (2 GS, 2-0, 0.60 ERA) | L |
Home Stretch Record: 6-6
Overview
It's been a long road for the Kansas City Royals since they last reached the postseason, besting the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1985 World Series.
"These Royals weren't an overnight success -- eight years is about two lifetimes in the life of a baseball executive -- but here the Royals are, positioned nicely to make their first playoff appearances in 29 years," wrote Richard Justice of MLB.com.
The push continues on Wednesday, as they look to cut into the Tigers' 1.5-game lead in the AL Central and secure a series win against White Sox ace Chris Sale. He's dominated them twice already this season, and he'll add another win to that tally.
That leaves the Royals in a bit of a funk at 4-8 in their last 12 games heading into the big weekend matchup with the Tigers. The Royals escape with one win in the series as the Tigers improve to 8-2 on the year in Kansas City and leave town with a 4.5-game lead in the division.
The Cleveland Indians series kicks off with the completion of a suspended game from earlier this season in which the Royals are trailing 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 10th inning. The Indians wrap up that game, and then Danny Duffy is bested in his return to the hill by AL Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber.
The Royals take the last two games of the series and enter the final series of the year down 4.5 games in the AL Central but just one game back for the second wild-card spot.
They take the first three games from the White Sox and enter the final game of the regular season tied with the Seattle Mariners for the No. 2 wild-card position. Yordano Ventura pitches admirably, but Sale is once again too much for the Royals, and they turn their attention to rooting for the Angels to knock off the Mariners.
Alas, Felix Hernandez is slated to start that final game for Seattle, and he solidifies his claim to the AL Cy Young Award with a complete-game gem that sends the Mariners to the playoffs and leaves the Royals a game short of snapping their postseason drought.
Oakland Athletics (83-67)
3 of 10
Remaining Schedule
| v. TEX (Samardzija) | Nick Martinez (2 G, 0-0, 1.80 ERA) | W |
| v. TEX (Gray) | Derek Holland (N/A) | L |
| v. PHI (Hammel) | David Buchanan (N/A) | W |
| v. PHI (Lester) | Jerome Williams (4 G, 2-0, 3.46 ERA) | W |
| v. PHI (Kazmir) | A.J. Burnett (N/A) | L |
| v. LAA (Samardzija) | C.J. Wilson (2 GS, 0-0, 3.00 ERA) | W |
| v. LAA (Gray) | Jered Weaver (4 GS, 2-2, 4.32 ERA) | W |
| v. LAA (Hammel) | Hector Santiago (3 GS, 0-0, 1.00 ERA) | L |
| @ TEX (Lester) | Colby Lewis (1 GS, 1-0, 8.44 ERA) | W |
| @ TEX (Kazmir) | Nick Tepesch (3 GS, 1-2, 5.29 ERA) | W |
| @ TEX (Samardzija) | Nick Martinez (2 G, 0-0, 1.80 ERA) | W |
| @ TEX (Gray) | Derek Holland (N/A) | L |
Home Stretch Record: 8-4
Overview
Despite their recent struggles, the Oakland Athletics still hold the No. 1 wild-card spot in the AL, and they have two games of wiggle room as far as simply sneaking into the playoffs is concerned.
A series loss to the Texas Rangers, behind another strong start from the recently healthy Derek Holland, leaves the A's tied with the Mariners heading into their weekend series with the Philadelphia Phillies.
The team is lucky enough to avoid Cole Hamels in that series, and the offense finally shows some signs of late-season life against the back of the Phillies rotation. Veteran A.J. Burnett bests the struggling Scott Kazmir to prevent the sweep, but the A's have some momentum heading into the final week.
Next up is three games with an Angels team that has already clinched the division and may very well be resting players and reshuffling its rotation by the time it heads into Oakland. That's enough for the A's to take two of three, giving them a two-game lead atop the wild-card standings heading into the final series.
Derek Holland gets them again on the final day of the season, but they've already clinched at that point after winning the first three games of the series against the Rangers. That puts them at 91-71 on the year, and they earn the right to host the Wild Card Round Game.
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Seattle Mariners (81-69)
4 of 10
Remaining Schedule
| @ LAA (Paxton) | C.J. Wilson (2 GS, 0-2, 6.08 ERA) | W |
| @ LAA (Hernandez) | Jered Weaver (3 GS, 1-1, 3.93 ERA) | W |
| @ HOU (Young) | Dallas Keuchel (3 GS, 2-1, 2.57 ERA) | L |
| @ HOU (Iwakuma) | Brad Peacock (3 GS, 0-1, 4.41 ERA) | W |
| @ HOU (Elias) | Collin McHugh (4 GS, 2-2, 4.01 ERA) | L |
| @ TOR (Paxton) | J.A. Happ (1 GS, 0-1, 6.00 ERA) | W |
| @ TOR (Hernandez) | R.A. Dickey (1 GS, 0-1, 3.00 ERA) | W |
| @ TOR (Young) | Mark Buehrle (N/A) | L |
| @ TOR (Iwakuma) | Marcus Stroman (N/A) | W |
| v. LAA (Elias) | Matt Shoemaker (3 G, 2-0, 2.35 ERA) | L |
| v. LAA (Paxton) | Cory Rasmus (2 G, 0-0, 0.00 ERA) | W |
| v. LAA (Hernandez) | C.J. Wilson (2 GS, 0-2, 6.08 ERA) | W |
Home Stretch Record: 8-4
Overview
The Mariners are currently on the outside looking in for a wild-card spot, as they trail the Royals by one game for the No. 2 position. The team has gone just 8-7 to start September after a 17-10 showing in August, but it still has the pieces to make a run.
Rookie James Paxton and Felix Hernandez take the final two games of the Mariners' current series with the Angels, moving them a half-game ahead of the Royals and into the second wild-card spot.
The Houston Astros have their number again in the subsequent series, as they take two of three from the Mariners for the second time this month behind quality starts from the surprisingly good duo of Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh.
A four-game series with a Toronto Blue Jays team they've only seen once this season during a three-game sweep in August gives the Mariners pitching staff the advantage, and they take three of four in Toronto. That puts them one game up on the Royals with three games to go for each team.
Matt Shoemaker returns to the mound for the Angels to open the series after being skipped in his last start and pitches with a purpose, earning the win and moving the Mariners into a tie with Kansas City.
James Paxton picks up a win in the biggest start of his career in the following game, and after the Royals lose their day game on the final day of the regular season, the ball goes to Felix Hernandez with a chance to send the Mariners to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
He comes through with a complete-game gem, and the Mariners head to Oakland for the one-game Wild Card Round.
AL Postseason Picture with Predicted Finishes
5 of 10
AL East
Baltimore Orioles (clinched division)
AL Central
Detroit Tigers (91-71)
Kansas City Royals (88-74)
AL West
Los Angeles Angels (clinched postseason, division magic number: 2)
AL Wild Card
Oakland Athletics (91-71)
Seattle Mariners (89-73)
Kansas City Royals (88-74)
Milwaukee Brewers (79-72)
6 of 10
Remaining Schedule
| @ STL (Fiers) | Adam Wainwright (3 GS, 2-1, 4.22 ERA) | L |
| @ STL (Lohse) | Shelby Miller (2 GS, 2-0, 3.00 ERA) | L |
| @ PIT (Gallardo) | Jeff Locke (2 GS, 1-1, 2.08 ERA) | W |
| @ PIT (Garza) | Edinson Volquez (4 GS, 2-1, 2.88 ERA) | L |
| @ PIT (Peralta) | Charlie Morton (2 GS, 0-2, 4.85 ERA) | L |
| @ CIN (Fiers) | Johnny Cueto (1 GS, 1-0, 2.25 ERA) | L |
| @ CIN (Lohse) | Daniel Corcino (1 GS, 0-0, 3.00 ERA) | W |
| @ CIN (Gallardo) | David Holmberg (1 GS, 1-0, 1.50 ERA) | W |
| v. CHC (Garza) | Tsuyoshi Wada (1 GS, 1-0, 2.70 ERA) | L |
| v. CHC (Peralta) | Edwin Jackson (2 GS, 1-1, 3.86 ERA) | W |
| v. CHC (Fiers) | Felix Doubront (N/A) | W |
Home Stretch Record: 5-6
Overview
After holding first place in the NL Central for a whopping 159 days earlier this season, the Milwaukee Brewers have hit a rough patch that may wind up costing them a postseason berth, as they are 6-14 in their last 20 games and have lost 5.5 games in the standings during that span.
The Brewers are still fighting, as they rallied to beat the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals in extra innings Tuesday night. Things don't go as well the rest of the series, however, as they are taken down in the final two games by the duo of Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller.
From there it's three games in Pittsburgh against a red-hot Pirates team, and while the Brewers avoid a sweep with a win in the first game, they lose ground in the wild-card hunt with a series loss.
They draw Johnny Cueto, someone no one wants to face when every win is critical, in Game 1 of their series with the Cincinnati Reds, but they manage to take the series against a pair of rotation fill-ins in the final two games.
It's not enough, though, as they're eliminated from the playoffs before their season-ending series with the Chicago Cubs even rolls around. The Cubs could throw anyone at that point, so don't read too much into those projected starters, but with the Pirates rolling, their series win means little as what was once a promising season ends in disappointment.
Pittsburgh Pirates (80-70)
7 of 10
Remaining Schedule
| v. BOS (Liriano) | Brandon Workman (N/A) | W |
| v. BOS (Cole) | Clay Buchholz (N/A) | L |
| v. MIL (Locke) | Yovani Gallardo (5 GS, 1-1, 2.97 ERA) | L |
| v. MIL (Volquez) | Matt Garza (2 GS, 1-0, 6.55 ERA) | W |
| v. MIL (Morton) | Wily Peralta (3 GS, 1-1, 4.26 ERA) | W |
| @ ATL (Liriano) | Aaron Harang (1 GS, 1-0, 3.24 ERA) | W |
| @ ATL (Cole) | Alex Wood (1 GS, 0-0, 2.57 ERA) | W |
| @ ATL (Locke) | Julio Teheran (N/A) | L |
| @ ATL (Volquez) | Mike Minor (N/A) | W |
| @ CIN (Morton) | Mike Leake (4 GS, 1-0, 3.71 ERA) | W |
| @ CIN (Liriano) | Alfredo Simon (3 GS, 2-1, 3.60 ERA) | W |
| @ CIN (Cole) | Johnny Cueto (5 GS, 4-0, 1.89 ERA) | L |
Home Stretch Record: 8-4
Overview
Since struggling through a seven-game losing streak in the middle of August, the Pirates have gone 16-8 in their last 24 games, and they have pulled into the No. 2 wild-card spot in the process.
They have their two studs going to close out their current series with the Boston Red Sox, and while Francisco Liriano keeps pitching like an ace, Clay Buchholz gets the best of them in Game 2 as he continues his late-season surge.
From there, the Pirates welcome the Brewers to town with a chance to put some distance on them in the wild-card standings. Jeff Locke gets lit up in Game 1, but the veteran duo of Edinson Volquez and Charlie Morton buckles down and secures a series win.
Next up is four games with a Braves team that has seen its season slip away over the past few weeks, as it has gone just 3-11 this month. Taking three of four is enough for the Pirates to clinch the second wild-card spot, as the Brewers are unable to turn things around in time.
Chances are it won't be Liriano and Cole in those final two games if this is how things play out, as the Pirates shuffle their rotation to set up Liriano for the Wild Card Round. We'll still say they take two of three in Cincinnati though, with Cueto picking up win No. 20 on the final day of the season for the Reds.
An 8-4 finish would mean the Pirates close out the season 24-12, and that momentum could make them an awfully dangerous team if they can again climb out of the Wild Card Round.
San Francisco Giants (83-68)
8 of 10
Remaining Schedule
| @ ARI (Bumgarner) | Randall Delgado (5 G, 0-1, 5.11 ERA) | W |
| @ SD (Hudson) | Odrisamer Despaigne (2 GS, 1-0, 0.69 ERA) | L |
| @ SD (Petit) | Andrew Cashner (N/A) | W |
| @ SD (Vogelsong) | Ian Kennedy (1 GS, 0-1, 5.68 ERA) | W |
| @ LAD (Peavy) | Carlos Frias (1 G, 0-0, 6.00 ERA) | W |
| @ LAD (Bumgarner) | Zack Greinke (4 GS, 4-0, 1.38 ERA) | L |
| @ LAD (Hudson) | Clayton Kershaw (3 GS, 2-0, 1.88 ERA) | L |
| v. SD (Petit) | Andrew Cashner (N/A) | W |
| v. SD (Vogelsong) | Ian Kennedy (1 GS, 0-1, 5.68 ERA) | L |
| v. SD (Peavy) | Eric Stults (3 GS, 2-1, 3.45 ERA) | W |
| v. SD (Bumgarner) | Tyson Ross (2 GS, 2-0, 2.70 ERA) | W |
Home Stretch Record: 7-4
Overview
At this point, the Giants are essentially a lock to reach the postseason, with MLB.com putting their postseason probability at 98.2 percent at the start of play Wednesday. It remains to be seen where they will slot in the playoff picture, though, as they could be anything from NL West champs to the No. 2 wild card.
They are 12-6 against the Arizona Diamondbacks on the season, and they wrap up one last series win with Madison Bumgarner on the mound Wednesday. Bumgarner is 6-1 with a 1.68 ERA and a pair of shutouts in eight starts since the beginning of August.
After that, the Giants head to San Diego to face a Padres team they've seen just 12 times this year and split the season series with so far. The back of the rotation comes through, as they claim the final two games of the series and turn their attention to a matchup with the division-leading Dodgers.
Unfortunately, things line up for them to face both Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in L.A. Jake Peavy picks up the win in Game 1, but Greinke out-duels Bumgarner in Game 2 and Kershaw throws another gem to lock down the series and all but wrap up the NL West for the Dodgers.
There's still a lot on the line heading into the final series, though, as the Giants lead the Pirates by just two games in the wild-card standings at that point and will want to avoid having to play their Wild Card Round Game on the road.
Another Peavy win in the second-to-last game of the season locks up the No. 1 wild-card spot, meaning it would likely be someone other than Bumgarner taking the mound for Game 162 as he readies for the one-game playoff against the Pirates.
St. Louis Cardinals (83-68)
9 of 10
Remaining Schedule
| v. MIL (Wainwright) | Mike Fiers (1 GS, 1-0, 2.70 ERA) | W |
| v. MIL (Miller) | Kyle Lohse (3 GS, 0-2, 9.64 ERA) | W |
| v. CIN (Gonzales) | David Holmberg (1 G, 0-0, 0.00 ERA) | W |
| v. CIN (Lackey) | Mike Leake (4 GS, 2-1, 2.67 ERA) | W |
| v. CIN (Lynn) | Alfredo Simon (2 GS, 1-0, 3.65 ERA) | L |
| @ CHC (Wainwright) | Travis Wood (4 GS, 2-0, 3.97 ERA) | W |
| @ CHC (Miller) | Jake Arrieta (3 GS, 0-0, 1.76 ERA) | L |
| @ CHC (Gonzales) | Kyle Hendricks (2 GS, 0-1, 2.19 ERA) | W |
| @ ARI (Lackey) | Wade Miley (1 GS, 0-1, 4.05 ERA) | L |
| @ ARI (Lynn) | Josh Collmenter (N/A) | W |
| @ ARI (Wainwright) | Randall Delgado (1 G, 0-0, 13.50 ERA) | W |
Home Stretch Record: 8-3
Overview
The Cardinals have some decisions to make regarding how they line up their rotation for the stretch run, as John Lackey is dealing with "dead arm" and Michael Wacha is still trying to work his way back after missing 68 games with a shoulder issue.
Fortunately, the Cardinals are also essentially locks to reach the postseason at this point, with MLB.com putting their probability at 99.1 percent heading into Wednesday's action. They've been playing better of late, but manager Mike Matheny still doesn't think they've peak.
"I don't know if we're at our best yet," he told Manny Randhawa of MLB.com. "I've seen some better runs we've had here lately, and I've seen some things that we all would like. But to say this is our best of the year is cutting it all short. I think we have to keep pushing for what that best is going to look like. Hopefully that's still in front of us."
Once they wrap up their current series with the Brewers, which they do with wins behind Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller, their remaining nine games are all against sub-.500 teams.
They also manage to miss Johnny Cueto in the Reds series, which should put them in a great position to take two of three, giving them a 3.5-game lead over the Pirates entering the final week.
From there, it's a matchup with the rival Cubs, who the Cardinals have gone just 9-7 against on the year. Jake Arrieta is a tough draw, and he follows up his near-no-hitter Tuesday with another terrific start, but the Cardinals again take two of three.
That puts their magic number at one to clinch the NL Central heading into the final series. Wade Miley bests Lackey in his return from dead arm, but the team clinches the following day, allowing St. Louis to scratch Wainwright from his start to set him up for Game 1 of the NLDS.
NL Postseason Picture with Predicted Finishes
10 of 10
NL East
Washington Nationals (clinched division)
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals (91-71)
Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74)
Milwaukee Brewers (84-78)
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69, postseason magic number: 5)
NL Wild Card
San Francisco Giants (90-72)
Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74)
Milwaukee Brewers (84-78)
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