Week 2 NFL Picks: Examining the Trends and Line Movements

The first week of play in the NFL always produces a handful of surprises. Since the preseason doesn't paint an accurate picture of what to expect when the games actually count, it's often difficult to predict how teams will play after more than six months between meaningful contests.

While things aren't totally stable after one game, it will continue to trend in that direction over the next few weeks. By the end of the first month, everybody should have a relatively good idea what to anticipate from each team throughout the 2014 season.

The same goes for game lines. The oddsmakers are not only getting a grip on the teams, but also trends from the public to determine which teams are overvalued and undervalued. Week 2 is no exception with several notable line movements since the opening odds were released.

Week 2 Lines and Picks

Date	Road	Home	Open	Current	Pick
Sept. 14	Dolphins	Bills	Even	MIA -1	BUF
Sept. 14	Jaguars	Redskins	WSH -4.5	WSH -6	WSH
Sept. 14	Cowboys	Titans	TEN -3.5	TEN -3.5	TEN
Sept. 14	Cardinals	Giants	NYG -1.5	ARZ -2.5	ARZ
Sept. 14	Patriots	Vikings	NE -4.5	NE -3	NE
Sept. 14	Saints	Browns	NO -6.5	NO -6.5	CLE
Sept. 14	Falcons	Bengals	CIN -5	CIN -5	ATL
Sept. 14	Lions	Panthers	CAR -1	CAR -3	DET
Sept. 14	Rams	Buccaneers	TB -4.5	TB -6	STL
Sept. 14	Seahawks	Chargers	SEA -4.5	SEA -6	SEA
Sept. 14	Texans	Raiders	Even	HOU -3	OAK
Sept. 14	Jets	Packers	GB -9	GB -8.5	GB
Sept. 14	Chiefs	Broncos	DEN -12.5	DEN -13.5	KC
Sept. 14	Bears	49ers	SF -7	SF -7	CHI
Sept. 15	Eagles	Colts	IND -2.5	IND -3	PHI

Biggest Trends/Line Movements

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants (4-point change)

This is the only game to see the favorite change during the course of the week. The Giants opened with that distinction, but now the Cardinals hold it by nearly a field goal. It likely has a lot to do with the perception change of both teams coming out of Week 1.

Arizona completed an impressive comeback win to knock off the San Diego Chargers. New York was blown out by the Detroit Lions and looked out of sync on both sides of the ball. Eli Manning's struggles were a major part of the problem on offense, as noted by ESPN Stats and Info:

The Giants offense has been trying to implement a more uptempo style. Everything may eventually click, but the early returns have been mediocre at best. So it doesn't come as a shock that the Cardinals have become a road favorite.

Arizona led the league in run defense last season and is off to another strong start after giving up just 52 yards on the ground last week. That means more pressure on the shaky New York passing game, which means the Cardinals remain a solid choice despite the line change.

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders (3-point change)

The Raiders only lost by five to the New York Jets in Week 1, but the stats tell a more concerning story. They gave up 212 rushing yards while only gaining 25. That led to a huge gap in time of possession and doesn't bode well heading into a matchup against Arian Foster.

Houston's playmaking running back rushed for 103 yards in the team's win over the Washington Redskins. After see what happened to the Raiders in their opener, he should be in for another heavy workload on Sunday.

The one positive sign for Oakland was the play of rookie quarterback Derek Carr. He managed the situation well, finishing with two touchdowns and no turnovers. If the team can get the running game going, the offense has some potential.

The Texans did give up 131 yards on the ground last week, giving the Raiders some hope heading into their home opener. It should be a close, low-scoring contest, and given the fact the underdog is the home team, it's probably wise to take the points.

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers (2-point change)

There's no mystery here. Even though Derek Anderson filled in admirably last week, the Panthers' outlook hinges heavily on Cam Newton. Now that he's set to return from an injury to his ribs, the line moved a couple points in their favor.

His effectiveness in his season debut is a question mark, though. The aggressive Lions front four is undoubtedly going to hit him early and often to see how he responds. And Brett Jensen of Fox Sports Carolinas passed along comments from Newton, who admitted he isn't at full strength yet.

"I'm still surprised for me being hurt for this long," he said. "This is a culture shock for me. ... It's kind of like a double bogey for me, being able to get my ribs get treatment while having just the same amount of attention on my ankle. It's been a long process. It's still not 100 percent."

Newton at his best is certainly worth two points. But it's unknown whether he will display anywhere close to peak form on Sunday. That's good news for the Lions, which looked strong in their aforementioned win over the Giants.

That's why Detroit is the safer pick this week. It has enough big-play threats on offense to make things difficult on a good Panthers defense. That's going to put pressure on Newton to respond, which is far from a guarantee as he tries to work his way back into top form.