Week 2 NFL Picks: Examining the Trends and Line Movements

There may be no better judge of how the football-loving public feels about a particular NFL game than the movement of a point spread throughout the week.

Rarely will a line from a game stay the same from Monday through Friday, as information about injuries, emerging players and weather conditions comes pouring in, impacting bettors' opinions on who will walk away with victory.

The point spreads are especially vulnerable early in the season because we simply don't have a lot of substantial information to fall back on, given the small sample size of games.

With that in mind, and taking the spreads into account, here are predictions for every Week 2 game. After that, we will look at some of the more notable trends and line movements for the full slate of games. 

All point-spread information is courtesy of Odds Shark.

Away Team	Home Team	Spread (as of Thursday evening)	Pick
Miami Dolphins	Buffalo Bills	Even	MIA
Detroit Lions	Carolina Panthers	CAR -2.5	CAR
Atlanta Falcons	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -5	ATL
New Orleans Saints	Cleveland Browns	NO -7	NO
New England Patriots	Minnesota Vikings	NE -3	NE
Arizona Cardinals	New York Giants	AZ -2.5	AZ
Dallas Cowboys	Tennessee Titans	TEN -3	TEN
Jacksonville Jaguars	Washington Redskins	WAS -7	JAX
Seattle Seahawks	San Diego Chargers	SEA -5.5	SEA
St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -7	TB
Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	DEN -12.5	DEN
New York Jets	Green Bay Packers	GB -9.5	GB
Houston Texans	Oakland Raiders	HOU -2.5	HOU
Chicago Bears	San Francisco 49ers	SF -7.5	SF
Philadelphia Eagles	Indianapolis Colts	IND -3	IND

Trends and Line Movements

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

A number of games have featured drastic movements in the point spreads as Sunday approaches, including the contest between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the St. Louis Rams.

The Bucs opened as 4.5-point favorites but are now giving seven points up to St. Louis. This really has to do with Week 1 performance more than anything else, as the Rams looked worse than perhaps every other team in the league in their 34-6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

The St. Louis defense was destroyed, and the offense went through multiple quarterbacks in Shaun Hill and Austin Davis (who were filling in for Sam Bradford in the first place). Tampa Bay also lost, but it was only by six to a potential playoff team in Carolina.

Another game that has seen a team jump from a 4.5-point favorite to a seven-point favorite is the one between the Washington Redskins and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The wide spread in Washington’s favor is a bit surprising considering how listless the Redskins looked in their opener against the Houston Texans. J.J. Watt completely dominated the Redskins offensive line and made a living in the backfield, and Robert Griffin III will be in for a long year with protection like that.

Perhaps the thought here is that the Jaguars don't have a player of Watt’s caliber to expose the Redskins front and are still reeling from losing the second half of their opener 34-0 to the Eagles. Still, Washington didn't even score seven points in its opener, but it is favored by seven Sunday.

Another interesting game is the Sunday night showdown between the Chicago Bears and the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers started as seven-point favorites and are now 7.5-point favorites, which isn’t a drastic swing, but we are talking about more than a touchdown of separation in a prime-time matchup between two playoff hopefuls.

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

For one thing, the Bears looked terrible in their home opener and lost to the Bills. However, of more concern are the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, as Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Slauson and Roberto Garza are all suffering various ailments. For his part, Marshall said he would like to play, via Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com:

"

Hey, I’m going to go down swinging. I’ll be out there Sunday. That’s what I’m saying, but of course I’m not the head decision-maker here. But I’m going to be out there in my mind, and I’ll be ok. 

Sometimes your body tells you no and your mind has to be a little bit stronger. I was able to fight it off the second half, do some things. I felt a little more comfortable today then I did in the second half. I still have a few more days of healing to go, get out there tomorrow and test it out. It will be ugly and it’s going to be sore and it’s going to hurt. But you’ve got to show the team and the coaches that I can at least be in position.

"

The Bears are completely reliant on their offense, and having so many guys missing or at less than 100 percent will be a real problem against the 49ers.

Finally, if you are looking for an underdog to back, consider the Minnesota Vikings against the New England Patriots. 

The Pats allowed 191 rushing yards to the Miami Dolphins—a team that struggled mightily last year along the offensive line—in Week 1 and could have some serious issues stopping Adrian Peterson. Sigmund Bloom of FootballGuys.com suggested as much:

Look for the Vikings to ride Peterson until the Patriots completely stuff the box, which will open up Cordarrelle Patterson for deep routes off the play-action pass. Minnesota’s offense will dictate the tempo in this one, and Tom Brady and Co. will be playing catch-up all game.

Of course, the Vikings' chances may not be a secret anymore. The line opened with New England as a 4.5-point favorite and has now shifted to only three points. 

Regardless of the spread, an 0-2 start would mean trouble for the Patriots.

Follow me on Twitter: @ScottPolacek.