Fantasy Football Week 3: Complete Thursday Night Preview
We kick off Week 3 of NFL 2014 with another divisional matchup as the Atlanta Falcons host the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
A year ago, both teams finished with 4-12 records. While it marked the first time since 2007 that the Falcons suffered through a losing record under head coach Mike Smith, the Bucs have enjoyed just one winning season since 2008 and have finished dead last in the NFC South three straight years.
The reality is that both teams are chasing the Carolina Panthers in the division. But what kind of fantasy impact are we expecting from these clubs on Thursday night?
These two teams have their share of talent at wide receiver, to say the least. But could we see a big night out of the ground game from one of the running backs?
Stay tuned.
Starting Quarterbacks
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh McCown
You will notice that the final numbers of McCown and his pass-catchers won’t exactly add up after you read our projections for the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
The feeling here is that the struggling veteran, who has thrown two touchdown passes in two games but has also been picked off three times, will give way to second-year quarterback Mike Glennon sometime in this game. McCown has also fumbled twice and been sacked four times during the team’s 0-2 start.
Fantasy Prediction: 17-of-33, 191 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. 2 carries, 13 yards, 0 TD.
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan
The former Pro Bowl quarterback comes off a forgettable 2013 season in which he was sacked a career-high 44 times and threw a career-worst 17 interceptions.
Now Ryan comes off a dismal outing at Cincinnati, connecting for one score while being picked off three times in a 24-10 loss to the Bengals.
In 12 previous meetings with the Buccaneers, the Falcons signal-caller has thrown 15 touchdown passes and a dozen interceptions—with two or more picks in five of those games.
Fantasy Prediction: 26-of-32, 308 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT. 2 carries, 7 yards, 0 TD.
Running Backs
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Starter: Doug Martin
The rookie sensation from 2012 missed substantial time last season and sat out last week’s game vs. the St. Louis Rams. It will be interesting to see how long he can go against an Atlanta defense that is certainly vulnerable to the run. Keep an eye on the inactive list before the game.
Fantasy Prediction: 11 carries, 40 yards, 0 TD. 2 receptions, 19 yards, 0 TD.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Backup: Bobby Rainey
Rainey comes off a big outing in last week’s loss to the Rams. The Buccaneers’ leading rusher of a year ago carried 22 times for 144 yards, plus totaled three receptions for 30 yards last Sunday.
Fantasy Prediction: 16 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD. 1 reception, 14 yards, 0 TD.
Atlanta Falcons Starter: Steven Jackson
In two games this season, the 20th leading rusher in NFL history has totaled 98 yards on the ground on 23 carries. It’s also interesting to note that Jackson has totaled only two catches in as many games this season.
Fantasy Prediction: 18 carries, 78 yards, 1 TD. 3 receptions, 27 yards, 0 TD.
Atlanta Falcons Backup: Jacquizz Rodgers
Rodgers ran for 332 yards and a pair of scores in 2013, and after two weeks this season, he’s totaled 11 carries for 57 yards, including a 17-yard touchdown run in Week 1 vs. the Saints.
Fantasy Prediction: 6 carries, 25 yards, 0 TD. 2 receptions, 31 yards, 0 TD.
Wide Receivers
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vincent Jackson
Seemingly impossible to cover, Jackson has totaled eight catches for 87 yards but has yet to find the end zone this season. That could change dramatically Thursday night if Atlanta’s solid cornerbacks don’t get any help from the pass rush.
Fantasy Prediction: 6 receptions, 91 yards, 0 TD.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans
The seventh overall pick in May’s draft has gotten off to a solid start and leads the team with nine catches in two games. Like Jackson, he’ll be seeing cornerbacks Robert Alford and Desmond Trufant on Thursday. Don’t be shocked if he scores his first NFL touchdown in this tilt.
Fantasy Prediction: 5 receptions, 88 yards, 1 TD.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Robert Herron
The sixth-round pick from the University of Wyoming has caught two passes for 13 yards this season. It’s hard to imagine him piling up big numbers unless the Bucs are hopelessly behind.
Fantasy Prediction: 2 receptions, 10 yards, 0 TD.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chris Owusu
Last season, Owusu played in nine games, made four starts and caught 13 passes for 114 yards in 2013. He’s totaled two receptions for 20 yards and a score on opening weekend but did not catch a pass last Sunday.
Fantasy Prediction: 2 receptions, 17 yards, 0 TD.
Atlanta Falcons: Roddy White
The former Pro Bowler is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury this week, but never count out one of the league’s most productive receivers. He’s totaled 10 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown this season. White missed three games in 2013 and scored just three times on 63 grabs.
Fantasy Prediction: 4 receptions, 78 yards, 0 TD.
Atlanta Falcons: Julio Jones
The explosive playmaker leads the club with 14 receptions for 204 yards and a score this season. Jones played in only five games last season but, when available, knows his way to the end zone. Jones has scored 19 touchdowns in his last 27 regular-season appearances.
Fantasy Prediction: 5 receptions, 109 yards, 1 TD.
Atlanta Falcons: Harry Douglas
If White is unable to go, Douglas’ stock rises for this contest. He’s totaled 10 catches for 107 yards this season and has 95 grabs since last season but has scored only two touchdowns.
Fantasy Prediction: 1 reception, 9 yards, 0 TD.
Atlanta Falcons: Devin Hester
No one knows Hester better than Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith, as the duo spent seven seasons together in the Windy City. Besides his work on special teams, Hester may have a surprise or two for his former sideline boss.
Fantasy Prediction: 4 receptions, 32 yards, 1 TD.
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Tight Ends
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Starter: Brandon Myers
Rookie Austin Seferian-Jenkins was the starter in Week 1 but was inactive last week and is out for this contest. Myers will get the start for the second straight week and has already caught eight passes for 74 yards in two games.
Fantasy Prediction: 4 receptions, 34 yards, 0 TD.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Backup: Luke Stocker
He’s been thrust into the backup role with Myers taking over for Seferian-Jenkins. He doesn’t figure to be that much of a factor, although if quarterback Mike Glennon winds up playing you never know.
Fantasy Prediction: 2 receptions, 18 yards, 0 TD.
Atlanta Falcons Starter: Levine Toilolo
A fourth-round pick from Stanford University a year ago, he totaled 11 catches for 55 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie. This season, Toilolo is the starter in place of retired star Tony Gonzalez and has caught five passes for 32 yards and a score in two games in 2014.
Fantasy Prediction: 1 reception, 6 yards, 0 TD.
Atlanta Falcons Backup: Bear Pascoe
The veteran tight end played in the first two games but did not catch a pass and was not targeted in either game. Once again, we are playing a hunch that he’ll see a few throws his way in this contest.
Fantasy Prediction: 4 receptions, 16 yards, 0 TD.
Defense/Special Teams
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams
Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has to be happy with the fact that his unit has allowed just three touchdowns in two games.
From a fantasy impact, there hasn’t been much from this team in two games. Tampa defenders have totaled just three sacks, and Lovie Smith’s team has forced only one turnover.
Don’t be shocked if the Atlanta Falcons jump on the visiting Buccaneers early with their passing attack, especially with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and defensive end Michael Johnson listed as questionable for this contest.
It will be interesting to see if Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan goes out of his way to avoid cornerback Alterraun Verner, who has looked good in the first two weeks with his new team.
Fantasy Prediction: 30 points allowed, 2 sacks, 0 INT, 1 FF.
Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams
We are going to go out on a slight limb here.
The Atlanta pass rush has been less than scintillating in recent seasons. After two weeks of play in 2014, Mike Nolan’s defensive unit has yet to record a sack.
That figures to change this evening as the Bucs will find themselves playing from behind for most of the evening, while quarterback Josh McCown has been erratic in terms of ball security. It adds up to a respectable night for the Falcons defense.
Fantasy Prediction: 14 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF.
Best Sleeper Adds
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A couple of these performers may not be on your team and could be worth adding on Thursday morning. Sometimes a little last-minute shopping can be beneficial.
1. Brandon Myers, Tight End, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Owned in 0.4 percent of ESPN leagues)
It’s somewhat surprising that the veteran pass-catcher isn’t on more rosters. After two weeks, he tied for second on the Buccaneers with eight receptions, good for 74 yards.
While Myers has yet to find the end zone this year, he’s more than capable of doing some damage against the Falcons linebackers.
2. Antone Smith, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons (Owned in 0.4 percent of ESPN leagues)
Smith has totaled only two rushing attempts for seven yards this season.
However, Smith came up big on a 54-yard touchdown reception in the Week 1 comeback win over the New Orleans Saints. He could be a nice insurance policy on Thursday or see his share of carries should Mike Smith’s team own a big fourth-quarter lead.
3. Devonta Freeman, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons (Owned in 20.4 percent of ESPN leagues)
The fourth-round pick from Florida State has just six touches in two games.
Still, the hard-running Freeman is one of those backs who is tough to bring down inside the 5-yard line. Don’t be surprised to see his opportunities increase, possibly as soon as this evening.
Injury Report
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Here is a look at the latest injury report regarding the Buccaneers and Falcons, focusing on key performers (courtesy of NFL.com).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ||
Player | Status | |
Mason Foster | LB | Out |
Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | Out |
Doug Martin | RB | Questionable |
Michael Johnson | DE | Questionable |
Gerald McCoy | DT | Questionable |
Demar Dotson | T | Probable |
Logan Mankins | G | Probable |
Evan Dietrich-Smith | C | Probable |
Lovie Smith’s team appears to be pretty banged up, especially on the defensive side of the football. Dane Fletcher figures to start at middle linebacker for Foster, while Martin hopes to return on Thursday night after sitting out last week’s game vs. the St. Louis Rams.
Meanwhile, having McCoy and Johnson available is key for a Tampa defense that hasn’t produced much of a pass rush in two games this season.
Atlanta Falcons | ||
Player | Status | |
Roddy White | WR | Questionable |
Julio Jones | WR | Probable |
Jake Matthews | T | Probable |
Prince Shembo | LB | Probable |
D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that White has been battling hamstring problems all week, so we will see if he can give it a go on Thursday night.
Meanwhile, Matthews is expected to return after being inactive last week at Cincinnati. And Jones is expected to be a go Thursday.
Sit or Start
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We know who the stars are when it comes to this contest. But is there a pivotal player or two who may be on your roster that you can’t decide whether to start? Here’s a little help.
RB Bobby Rainey (Buccaneers): With running back Doug Martin listed as questionable, Rainey may get his share of carries. Last week, he got the start against the St. Louis Rams and totaled 25 touches from scrimmage for 174 yards (144 rushing, 30 receiving).
Verdict: Start
WR Harry Douglas (Falcons): He led the team in receiving in 2013 with 85 catches for 1,067 yards but only scored twice. Douglas has already totaled 10 catches for 107 yards this season but has not caught a touchdown pass.
Verdict: Sit
WR Devin Hester (Falcons): We know that Hester is always capable of going the distance any time he touches the football. The feeling here is that the former Chicago Bear, who has totaled six receptions for 101 yards this season, will give his former head coach Lovie Smith something to think about this evening.
Verdict: Start
Some statistical support provided by Pro-Football-Reference and ESPN.com. Depth chart info provided by Ourlads.
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