Baylor Bears vs. Buffalo Bulls Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The Baylor Bears have been a great bet over recent seasons, except from one angle. They are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games as a road favorite.

Baylor is a big road favorite once again as it heads north for a rematch with the Buffalo Bulls on Friday night.

Point spread: Bears opened as 27-point favorites, but the number was climbing quickly, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

The Bears are off to a 2-0 start, and they've covered two big spreads already. Baylor opened this season by shutting out SMU 45-0, holding the Mustangs to 67 total yards, covering the number at -31. The Bears then demolished Northwestern State 70-6, racking up 720 yards of offense, covering at -47. And they did it all without Heisman candidate quarterback Bryce Petty, who missed the game with a back injury.

In his place, sophomore Seth Russell threw for 438 yards and five touchdowns. Baylor beat Buffalo last September down in Waco 70-13, easily covering as four-touchdown favorites.

Why the Buffalo Bulls can cover the spread

The Bulls are off to a 1-1 straight up, 0-2 ATS start, and while they're coming off a loss to Army, at least they went down fighting. Buffalo trailed by 30 early in the fourth quarter but rallied to pull within one score with three minutes to go. The Bulls actually outgained the Black Knights 549-466 but couldn't quite overcome three turnovers or cover as three-point road dogs.

Buffalo returned seven starters on offense from a unit that averaged 30 points per game last year and has put up 38 and 39 points in two games, respectively, this season. So perhaps the Bulls have enough firepower to keep Friday's game close.

Finally, Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as a home dog, according to the Odds Shark college football database.

Smart Pick

Baylor is probably going to win this game—it's just a matter of by how much. Even if Petty can't play (as of early this week he was listed as questionable), this game is a talent mismatch.

But if Buffalo can put up three touchdowns on a Bears defense that only returned four starters from last year, it would have a good chance to cover this large spread. And that isn't all that far-fetched.

So in this spot, the pick goes with the home dog, plus all those points.

Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Baylor's last 15 games on the road.
• Buffalo is 8-1 SU in its last nine games at home.
• Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog.
• The UNDER is 10-2 in Buffalo’s last 12 games as a home underdog.

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds-tracker app.