Mayweather vs. Maidana Undercard: Preview, Prediction for Santa Cruz vs. Roman
Undefeated super bantamweight champion Leo Santa Cruz returns to pay-per-view action on Saturday night when he defends his belt against Manuel Roman. The exciting Santa Cruz has been a fixture on major Golden Boy cards in recent years.
Roman is relatively unknown and very inexperienced to be receiving such a high-profile opportunity. I have to think this has more to do with showcasing the all-action Santa Cruz, who has been uncharacteristically inactive most of this year.
Santa Cruz should be on the brink of stardom, although this isn't necessarily the kind of fight that will keep pushing him in that direction.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Leo Santa Cruz | Manuel Roman |
| Record: | 27-0-1, 15 KOs | 17-2-3 |
| Height: | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Reach: | 69" | 66" |
| Weight: | 122 lbs | 122 lbs |
| Age: | 26 | 26 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Rosemead, California | Paramount, California |
| Rounds: | 155 | 122 |
Leo Santa Cruz and Manuel Roman are the same height, but the three-inch reach advantage for Santa Cruz will be significant. He's likes to throw wide punches from the outside, and that extra length will help him do it.
While both men are 26, the gulf in experience between them is deep and perilous for Roman. Santa Cruz is a world champion and has been fighting high-profile fights for the past few years.
Roman has fought a single 10-round fight and has faced nobody of note.
Main Storylines
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The main storyline for this bout between Leo Santa Cruz and Manuel Roman is: Why the heck is this fight even taking place?
Earlier this year, I was very critical of Top Rank for matching Guillermo Rigondeaux with Sod Kokietgym. But this fight almost makes that one look credible. Kokietgym was at least an experienced, longtime veteran.
I applauded the WBC and WBA when they refused to sanction Danny Garcia's fight with Rod Salka as a title bout. But I'm going to have to stop clapping now for the WBC, because the organization appears to have put its stamp of approval on this absurdity.
Roman has fought exactly one 10-round fight, way back in August 2012. He lost by unanimous decision to Randy Caballero.
He fought once in 2013, winning an eight-round decision. Last May he won a six-rounder against 15-10 Jose Silveria.
And now he is fighting for a world title.
Santa Cruz could be a major star in this sport. He has an exciting, rugged style. But to be credible, he should be fighting guys who are at least in the top 20 in the division.
You could argue Roman isn't in the top 100.
Roman and Santa Cruz are former sparring partners, and that is a variable that could come into play. Maybe Roman will know the champion well enough to make this a more competitive fight than it looks like on paper.
Even so, the fact that a fighter with his resume is in a title fight is a complete joke.
Strengths
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Leo Santa Cruz is a rugged, pressure fighter. He fights a lot like a lighter-weight version of Antonio Margarito. He throws a lot of punches in fluid combinations, hammers the body and is not afraid to get hit.
He's an offense-first fighter, but does a good job of returning his hands to defensive position and slips punches well.
Manuel Roman is a relaxed fighter who punches well off his back foot. He can string together combinations to the body and head. While he hasn't fought any highly rated fighters, he was brought up in the tough circuits of Mexico and California.
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Weaknesses
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Leo Santa Cruz is a very busy fighter, and you can't throw as many punches as he does without leaving space to get hit. So far he's been able to overwhelm pretty much everybody he's fought, but a highly technical fighter could give him problems.
But he's not facing one on Saturday night.
Manuel Roman has a bad habit of getting lazy when he's returning his lead hand. Jose Silveria had a lot of success countering him over the top.
Roman also has a tendency to stay in place after getting off with his own punches. Even if he lands on Santa Cruz, he better not make the mistake of standing right in front of him and giving the champ an opportunity to pound him in return.
Leo Santa Cruz Will Win If...
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Leo Santa Cruz should fight his typical fight Saturday night, confident that he'll be able to dispatch an overmatched opponent. He's the stronger, quicker and more athletic fighter with better skills.
Santa Cruz should use his reach advantage to throw his big, overhand right and sweeping, lead left hook as he moves into range against Manuel Roman. He should pound at the challenger's body and string together combinations that attack upstairs and down within the same flurry.
He should look to catch Roman over the top of his jab with the overhand right. Santa Cruz usually does a pretty good job of covering up when he's done punching, but his volume leaves space for him to be hit.
That won't be much of concern against Roman, who has stopped just six opponents in his career. Santa Cruz should be able to come forward with aggression, cut off the ring on Roman and chop him down.
Manuel Roman Will Win If...
6 of 7If Manuel Roman wins this fight, it will be the upset of the year. To beat Leo Santa Cruz, he'll have to fight a far better fight than he fought in his six-round decision win over Jose Silveria.
Roman will need to get his lead hand back crisply to avoid getting jolted by counter hooks. He'll need to keep moving after he throws his combinations, rather than remaining stationary and giving Santa Cruz the chance to hammer him.
Roman is pretty good off his back foot, so he should look to draw Santa Cruz forward, catching the champ when he opens up and then moving away again. To have any hope of winning this fight, Roman is going to need to move smartly and fight a perfect technical fight.
Prediction
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Leo Santa Cruz isn't exactly a knockout machine. But he has the ability to overwhelm opponents and finish them. He's recorded stoppages of some pretty good fighters.
I expect him to make relatively quick work of Manuel Roman on Saturday night. Roman looks like a tough guy who won't yield easily, but he's simply going to get beaten up, round after round.
I'm picking a Round 7 TKO.
With Guillermo Rigondeaux's Top Rank contract running out earlier this year, I'm hoping he'll sign with Golden Boy. Meanwhile, Carl Frampton captured the IBF super bantamweight belt from Kiko Martinez last weekend in Belfast.
So that makes three undefeated titleholders right now at 122 pounds. Some unification fights need to happen in the year ahead.
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