2014 Sprint Cup Chase Odds: Handicapping the Field of 16

All the pieces of the puzzle are in place. The picture is clear.

Sixteen drivers have qualified for the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup. They share a common goal of hoisting the championship trophy at Homestead in November.

The Chase format is new this year. It is about going rounds—Challenger, Contender, Eliminator and one final race for the Championship.

As always, a win means everything. You automatically advance to the next round.

The field includes a driver with six titles and one with four. Three have one apiece. The rest are in the hunt for their first.

Who becomes champion? Here are the odds as the 10-race Chase begins.

Ryan Newman

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Odds to Win: 75-1

Best Chase Finish: Sixth (2005)

Season Highlights: In his first season with a new team, Newman has adapted as expected for a veteran of his talent. He and crew chief Luke Lambert have struggled to get on the same page. A third-place finish at Kentucky in June showed that the pair was headed in the right direction. Since then, Newman has scored three top 10s, and his seventh-place finish at Atlanta was a confidence-builder for the entire team.  

Why He'll Win: For this driver, just making it into the Chase this season feels like winning the championship.

Greg Biffle

Drew Hallowell/Getty Images

Odds to Win: 75-1

Best Chase Finish: Second (2005)

Season Highlights: It's been a difficult year for this veteran driver who struggled to earn only three top fives (Darlington, Talladega, Pocono). A runner-up finish at Talladega in May is the one bright spot in a forgettable season. 

Why He'll Win: Biffle could find that lucky horseshoe or a magic four-leaf clover come Chase time and surprise us all. It's unlikely he'll find either.

Matt Kenseth

USA TODAY Sports

Odds to Win: 50-1

Best Chase Finish: Second (2006, 2013)

Season Highlights: Sixteen top-10 finishes showed this team has the goods, but it has not been able to seal the deal. Charlotte, Dover (third) and Atlanta (second) were wins that didn't happen. 

Why He'll Win: Kenseth has historically been good in the last 10 races over the past decade. Last year, he scored top fives in six of the 10 Chase races as runner-up to the title. He could be the surprise driver of the Chase.

A.J. Allmendinger

Terry Renna/Associated Press

Odds to Win: 40-1

Best Chase Finish: N/A

Season Highlights: A win at Watkins Glen that put his single-car team in the Chase is the Cinderella story of the Chase, no matter where Allmendinger finishes. 

Why He'll Win: Not content with being just a road-course ace, Allmendinger has shown speed and consistency on 1.5-mile tracks, which make up half the Chase races.

Aric Almirola

Jeff Curry/Getty Images

Odds to Win: 35-1

Best Chase Finish: N/A

Season Highlights: His rain-shortened win at Daytona in July secured Almirola a Chase berth. Five top 10s don't show a true picture of this talented driver, who may be better than his car.

Why He'll Win: This former NASCAR Drive for Diversity driver gets better with every lap and every race. His attitude of "I can win this" could push him to score a win in one of the Chase's 10 races.

Kasey Kahne

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Odds to Win: 27-1

Best Chase Finish: Fourth (2012)

Season Highlights: Kasey Kahne may have been the most consistent driver without a win this season with 10 top 10s, including six in the last eight races. He ended his winless streak at Atlanta.  

Why He'll Win: Kahne has career wins at Loudon, Charlotte (four times) and Phoenix. That means he'll have those dates in the Chase circled. This team could be getting hot at just the right time.

Kurt Busch

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Odds to Win: 25-1

Best Chase Finish: First (2004)

Season Highlights: Kurt Busch proved to the racing world this year that his racing talents are multidimensional by scoring a sixth-place finish in the Indianapolis 500 this May. In NASCAR, an early-season win at Martinsville that locked him into the Chase was fortunate for this team. In the second half of the season, Busch struggled a bit with consistency, although top fives at Watkins Glen and Bristol show that this driver can score big.

Why He'll Win: Busch is a former champion and has been in the Chase five times. There's no question that his relentless drive to win and his Hendrick horsepower are a dangerous combination that's capable of winning on any weekend. 

Denny Hamlin

USA TODAY Sports

Odds to Win: 20-1

Best Chase Finish: Second (2010)

Season Highlights: Hamlin was slow to find his stride in 2014. His win at Talladega in May helped, but since Daytona in July he's had a run of six top 10s in eight races.

Why He'll Win: Hamlin is no stranger to the Chase. He's only missed the field once in his career in 2013. The late-season surge of top 10s and ultra-fast work by his pit crew have made Hamlin into a contender.

Kyle Busch

Terry Renna/Associated Press

Odds to Win: 20-1

Best Chase Finish: Fourth (2013)

Season Highlights: In the first half of the season, Busch was on fire with a win at Fontana followed up by a pole at Martinsville. Summer was filled with three runner-up finishes (Kentucky, Loudon and Indianapolis). He has struggled since.

Why He'll Win: Busch's current run of mediocre finishes will eventually have to end, and if it does during the Chase, he would be one of the drivers to beat. The pendulum swings both ways. He's won at Loudon, Talladega and Phoenix—all Chase tracks.

Carl Edwards

USA TODAY Sports

Odds to Win: 17-1

Best Chase Finish: Second (2008, 2011)

Season Highlights: Edwards' two wins (Bristol and Sonoma) have buoyed an otherwise mediocre season. This driver could never get on a run of top-10 finishes that could predict a championship. 

Why He'll Win: Edwards has shown strong results on nearly all the tracks in the Chase this season, especially the 1.5-mile tracks like Charlotte and Kansas. After he missed shots at the title twice, ending his tenure with team owner Jack Roush on the highest note would make for a fitting end to what was an otherwise fruitful relationship.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

David Tulis/Associated Press

Odds to Win: 15-1

Best Chase Finish: Fifth (2004, 2006, 2013)

Season Highlights: Junior's season-opening win at Daytona set the stage for what has been a career-best season with three wins, 11 top fives and 16 top 10s. Crew chief Steve Letarte has given Earnhardt the best race cars of his career, and NASCAR's most popular driver has driven them all the way into championship contention.

Why He'll Win: Earnhardt's strength on Chase tracks like Phoenix, Dover, Talladega and Martinsville should help him secure a long, sought-after Sprint Cup title.

Joey Logano

Terry Renna/Associated Press

Odds to Win: 15-1

Best Chase Finish: Eighth (2013)

Season Highlights: It's been a season of maturing for Logano, who has gone from being a nerdy kid to being a bare-knuckle brawler. All of his three wins (Texas, Richmond and Bristol) came by way of him fighting off the competition in the final laps. And his seven front-row starts show he's been able to get the speed out of his Penske Ford when needed.

Why He'll Win: At times this season he's been overshadowed by his teammate, former champion Brad Keselowski (2012). Logano is ready and definitely able to show the world that he too is championship material. Expect his youthful exuberance to bridge any weaknesses in his driving ability.

Jimmie Johnson

Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Odds to Win: 12-1

Best Chase Finish: First (2006-10, 2013)

Season Highlights: Johnson got off to his typically slow start to the season, gained momentum in the early summer with three wins (Charlotte, Dover and Michigan) and then went nowhere. A string of five bad races had his team in a mini-slump. He's ending the regular season with an expected run of top-10 finishes at Michigan, Bristol and Atlanta.

Why He'll Win: With six titles, Johnson is the perennial favorite. His Chad Knaus-led team has historically shown itself as being a postseason squad. The Chase format favors Johnson's driving style. He has said, “Those 10 tracks in the Chase are really probably nine or 10 of my best tracks on the circuit," according to Motor Sports Talk.

Kevin Harvick

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Odds to Win: 8-1

Best Chase Finish: Third (2010, 2011, 2013)

Season Highlights: Harvick started out the season with an early win at Phoenix. He won again in May at Darlington. During the rest of the season he was a threat to win every weekend. Minor mistakes, many of them on pit road, cost this team two or three more victories. 

Why He'll Win: The combination of Hendrick horsepower, Rodney Childer's direction and Harvick behind the wheel may be the most potent combination in Sprint Cup racing at the moment. Harvick has been his best on the 1.5-mile tracks that make up half of the Chase races.

Jeff Gordon

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Odds to Win: 6-1

Best Chase Finish: Second (2007)

Season Highlights: Gordon's season opened up to a series of misfires that forced him to watch a couple of victories at Las Vegas and Fontana slip away. A breakthrough win at Kansas led to a summer of success for Gordon, highlighted by his record-setting fifth win in the Brickyard 400. A late summer Michigan victory solidified his run to the title.

Why He'll Win: A fifth championship within his reach, Gordon will outperform his competition on the race track. Despite being a multiple champion, Gordon has never won in the Chase format. A mistake-free performance for 10 weeks by his Alan Gustafson-led team will have Gordon hoisting the Sprint Cup in Homestead in November.

Brad Keselowski

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Odds to Win: 7-2

Best Chase Finish: First (2012)

Season Highlights: A preseason pick to be a contender for the title, Keselowski showed the pundits he was right with an early-season win at Las Vegas, an important 1.5-mile test. It took until Dover in June for Keselowski to find his groove, and the summer was dotted with top fives, including a win at Kentucky (another 1.5-miler) and a sweep of both races at Loudon. He then finished strong with a dominant win at Richmond in the last race before the Chase to give him a Sprint Cup Series-leading four wins. 

Why He'll Win: If Keselowski can find the key to more consistency between his qualifying efforts and his racing, he'll conquer the rest of the Chase field. His strength on 1.5-mile tracks will take him to the top of the field.

Note: Odds were created by the author.