Fantasy Football 2014: Updated Rankings and Analysis for Popular Sleeper Targets

Fantasy football enthusiasts learned quite a bit in the past week or so.

We learned the rookie quarterbacks won't be cracking the starting lineup to start the season. We learned that it's always wise to have your fantasy drafts after the third week of the preseason, with ESPN reporting that Sam Bradford is lost for the season and The Associated Press noting (via Fox Sports) that Cam Newton is in question for Week 1. We learned, once again, that you should never spend anything other than a last-round pick on a kicker after the top player at the position, Matt Prater, was suspended for the first four games.

But there's always more to learn. And so below, I'll pass around my updated rankings along with a look at a few sleepers, with an eye toward the rookies that are popular picks later in drafts. It's a whole lot of fun crammed into one article, folks.

Fantasy Rankings

Rank	Player	Team	Position
1	LeSean McCoy	Philadelphia Eagles	RB
2	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	RB
3	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City Chiefs	RB
4	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears	RB
5	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers	RB
6	Jimmy Graham	New Orleans Saints	TE
7	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	WR
8	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos	QB
9	Marshawn Lynch	Seattle Seahawks	RB
10	Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	QB
11	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay Packers	QB
12	Demaryius Thomas	Denver Broncos	WR
13	Doug Martin	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	WR
14	A.J. Green	Cincinnati Bengals	WR
15	Arian Foster	Houston Texans	RB
16	Zac Stacy	St. Louis Rams	RB
17	Dez Bryant	Dallas Cowboys	WR
18	Brandon Marshall	Chicago Bears	WR
19	DeMarco Murray	Dallas Cowboys	RB
20	Alfred Morris	Washington	RB
21	Julio Jones	Atlanta Falcons	WR
22	Matt Stafford	Detroit Lions	QB
23	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	QB
24	Le'Veon Bell	Pittsburgh Steelers	RB
25	Jordy Nelson	Green Bay Packers	WR
26	Montee Ball	Denver Broncos	RB
27	Randall Cobb	Green Bay Packers	WR
28	Antonio Brown	Pittsburgh Steelers	WR
29	Julius Thomas	Denver Broncos	TE
30	Alshon Jeffery	Chicago Bears	WR
31	Andre Ellington	Arizona Cardinals	RB
32	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots	TE
33	Andre Johnson	Houston Texans	WR
34	Vincent Jackson	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	WR
35	Giovani Bernard	Cincinnati Bengals	RB
36	Victor Cruz	New York Giants	WR
37	Reggie Bush	Detroit Lions	RB
38	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts	QB
39	Toby Gerhart	Jacksonville Jaguars	RB
40	Keenan Allen	San Diego Chargers	WR
41	Ryan Mathews	San Diego Chargers	RB
42	Vernon Davis	San Francisco 49ers	TE
43	Wes Welker	Denver Broncos	WR
44	C.J. Spiller	Buffalo Bills	RB
45	Frank Gore	San Francisco 49ers	RB
46	Larry Fitzgerald	Arizona Cardinals	WR
47	Ray Rice	Baltimore Ravens	RB
48	Rashad Jennings	New York Giants	RB
49	DeSean Jackson	Washington	WR
50	Pierre Garcon	Washington	WR
51	Ben Tate	Houston Texans	RB
52	Torrey Smith	Baltimore Ravens	WR
53	Trent Richardson	Indianapolis Colts	RB
54	Jeremy Maclin	Philadelphia Eagles	WR
55	Michael Floyd	Arizona Cardinals	WR
56	Robert Griffin III	Washington	QB
57	Nick Foles	Philadelphia Eagles	QB
58	Bishop Sankey	Tennessee Titans	RB
59	Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons	WR
60	Michael Crabtree	San Francisco 49ers	WR
61	T.Y. Hilton	Indianapolis Colts	WR
62	Jason Witten	Dallas Cowboys	TE
63	Kendall Wright	Tennessee Titans	WR
64	Frank Gore	San Francisco 49ers	RB
65	Percy Harvin	Seattle Seahawks	WR
66	Emmanuel Sanders	Denver Broncos	WR
67	Joique Bell	Detroit Lions	RB
68	Chris Johnson	New York Jets	RB
69	Cordarrelle Patterson	Minnesota Vikings	WR
70	Shane Vereen	New England Patriots	RB
71	Marques Colston	New Orleans Saints	WR
72	Eric Decker	New York Jets	WR
73	Terrance Williams	Dallas Cowboys	WR
74	Jordan Cameron	Cleveland Browns	TE
75	Matt Ryan	Atlanta Falcons	QB
76	Golden Tate	Detroit Lions	WR
77	Julian Edelman	New England Patriots	WR
78	Reggie Wayne	Indianapolis Colts	WR
79	Stevan Ridley	New England Patriots	RB
80	Sammy Watkins	Buffalo Bills	WR
81	Colin Kaepernick	San Francisco 49ers	QB
82	Chris Johnson	New York Jets	RB
83	Mike Wallace	Miami Dolphins	WR
84	Cecil Shorts	Jacksonville Jaguars	WR
85	Lamar Miller	Miami Dolphins	RB
86	Fred Jackson	Buffalo Bills	RB
87	Steven Jackson	Atlanta Falcons	RB
88	Anquan Boldin	San Francisco 49ers	WR
89	Pierre Thomas	New Orleans Saints	RB
90	DeAndre Hopkins	Houston Texans	WR
91	Darren McFadden	Oakland Raiders	RB
92	Maurice Jones-Drew	Oakland Raiders	RB
93	Darren Sproles	Philadelphia Eagles	RB
94	DeAngelo Williams	Carolina Panthers	RB
95	Knowshon Moreno	Miami Dolphins	RB
96	Riley Cooper	Philadelphia Eagles	WR
97	Russell Wilson	Seattle Seahawks	QB
98	Khiry Robinson	New Orleans Saints	RB
99	Chris Ivory	New York Jets	RB
100	Danny Woodhead	San Diego Chargers	RB
101	Mark Ingram	New Orleans Saints
102	Danny Amendola	New England Patriots	RB
103	Seattle D/ST	-	-
104	Greg Olsen	Carolina Panthers	TE
105	Jordan Reed	Washington	TE
106	Dennis Pitta	Baltimore Ravens	TE
107	Tom Brady	New England Patriots	QB
108	Tony Romo	Dallas Cowboys	QB
109	Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	QB
110	Jay Cutler	Chicago Bears	QB
111	LeGarrette Blount	Pittsburgh Steelers	RB
112	Hakeem Nicks	Indianapolis Colts	WR
113	Jeremy Hill	Cincinnati Bengals	RB
114	Rueben Randle	New York Giants	WR
115	Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	WR
116	Steve Smith	Baltimore Ravens	WR
117	Bernard Pierce	Baltimore Ravens	RB
118	Carlos Hyde	San Francisco 49ers	RB
119	Greg Jennings	Minnesota Vikings	WR
120	Shonn Greene	Tennessee Titans	RB
121	Mike Evans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	WR
122	Tavon Austin	St. Louis Rams	WR
123	Terrance West	Cleveland Browns	RB
124	Justin Hunter	Tennessee Titans	WR
125	Devonta Freeman	Atlanta Falcons	RB
126	Kelvin Benjamin	Carolina Panthers	WR
127	Brandin Cooks	New Orleans Saints	WR
128	Carolina Panthers D/ST	-	-
129	San Francisco 49ers D/ST	-	-
130	Denver Broncos D/ST	--	-
131	Arizona Cardinals D/ST	-	-
132	Cincinnati Bengals D/ST	-	-
133	James Starks	Green Bay Packers	RB
134	Andy Dalton	Cincinnati Bengals	QB
135	Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	QB
136	St. Louis Rams D/ST	-	-
137	Knile Davis	Kansas City Chiefs	RB
138	Andre Williams	New York Giants	RB
139	Jarrett Boykin	Green Bay Packers	WR
140	Eli Manning	New York Giants	QB
141	Markus Wheaton	Pittsburgh Steelers	WR
142	Kyle Rudolph	Minnesota Vikings	TE
143	Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	-	-
144	New England Patriots D/ST	-	-
145	James Jones	Oakland Raiders	WR
146	Jordan Todman	Jacksonville Jaguars	RB
147	Martellus Bennett	Chicago Bears	TE
148	Charles Clay	Miami Dolphins	TE
149	Jonathan Grimes	Houston Texans	RB
150	Zach Ertz	Philadelphia Eagles	TE

A Note About These Ranks

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

A very popular draft strategy and piece of advice this season has been to bypass quarterbacks in the early rounds of your draft. The position is deep, and positions like running back have enough uncertainty to make the top players at QB more valuable than players at other positions.

It's hard to refute that advice, but there is one major caveat in the line of thinking. Essentially, it is this—it is absolutely vital that you nail the first two rounds of your draft. You can't win your league in the first two rounds, but you can lose it. That often means taking players you feel extremely confident in producing this season.

That's why players like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are all pretty high in my rankings. I know in my draft that if I have the choice between them and a riskier running back, for instance, I'm going to play it safe. I'd rather take a chance on a running back in the later rounds than to take a chance on one early or who I don't fully trust. 

If you have the chance to take a safe running back, well, by all means you should do it. But if you are on the fence early on, go with the safer player.

Evaluating Popular Sleepers

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The first place people often look for sleepers is amongst the rookies. While this year is no different, there aren't a ton of viable options from the ranks of the first-year players thus far. 

The rookie quarterbacks are off the board for now. Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr and Blake Bortles have all either been announced as the backup or all indications point toward that happening. A few of them may start at some point this season, but they aren't viable fantasy targets for now.

Besides, of the bunch, only Manziel seems all that appealing, and mostly because of moments like the following, shared by the NFL on Twitter:

When looking at rookie running backs, you are mostly looking at handcuffs. Players like Carlos Hyde, Devonta Freeman, Jeremy Hill and Terrance West should be late-round selections if only because they have the chance to make an impact at some point this season. 

Bishop Sankey has been a popular sleeper choice—and one I've touted—but I'm starting to sour on him a bit. He's had fumbling issues. Shonn Greene has continued to work with the first team in the preseason, not Sankey, which is troubling because Green is pretty dreadful. And he's no longer going to be a bargain at your draft—according to the cumulative average draft position curated by FantasyPros.com, he's the 57th player being selected in fantasy drafts. 

In 10-team leagues, that makes him a sixth-round pick, and he hasn't secured a clear starting role of yet. That's a big price to pay for a player you are drafting to be a flex starter at worst. As you might guess, there is a lot of dissenting opinion about Sankey in the fantasy world. 

Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus Fantasy isn't high on him:

John Paulsen of 4for4.com is less concerned:

If you want Sankey, you're going to have to pay a pretty steep price to land him. Keep in mind that Nick Foles has an ADP of 56, and Michael Floyd has an ADP of 58, according to FantasyPros.com. I'd rather have either of those players over Sankey. 

At wide receiver, the odds are generally stacked against you unearthing a sleeper or huge performer. For every Keenan Allen (71 receptions for 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns), there are 25 Tavon Austins (569 yards from scrimmage, six total touchdowns).

And for every exciting prospect at the position, you can find a very compelling downside.

• Sammy Watkins has EJ Manuel as his quarterback and, well, Manuel has looked pretty poor this preseason. Again.
• Brandin Cooks is one of many weapons for Drew Brees in New Orleans, a team that has rarely had a consistent fantasy performer at wide receiver outside of Marques Colston.
• Jordan Matthews is in a similar position to Cooks with the Philadelphia Eagles, a team with about seven legitimate targets in the passing game.
• Kelvin Benjamin is going to be reliant on red-zone targets to be a major fantasy producer. Betting on touchdowns is far more dangerous than betting on receptions and yards.
• Mike Evans is a dangerous downfield and red-zone threat, but he'll lose many of those looks to Vincent Jackson, one of the better deep-ball receivers in the league.

One of these guys may very well bust out. Just don't overpay to find out.

Let's turn away from the rookies to a few players I'm really liking right now. Emmanuel Sanders currently has an ADP of 75 according to FantasyPros, but with Manning leading the dangerous Denver Broncos attack, he could easily end up being a very nice WR2 for your team this year at an incredibly cheap price. 

"Peyton puts it on the money," Sanders told Andrew Mason of Broncos.com. "He takes pride in throwing the perfect football. He takes pride in being perfect all around, in general. He makes my job easy."

And he's making drafting him very easy, too. You should have liked him even before he caught five passes for 128 yards and two touchdowns against the Houston Texans in his preseason debut. You should love him now. He'll carve out a very nice role for himself in Denver's offense.

A round later, Kendall Wright continues to offer owners a great value with an ADP of 84. Remember, in 10-man standard-scoring leagues a season ago, he was four touchdowns away from being a WR2 (with three more touchdowns, he would have been a WR2 in 12-man leagues), and he should only continue to improve in his third season.

Yes, the fact that he has just four catches for 38 yards this preseason is a bit concerning, but after catching 158 passes in his first two seasons, you can bet the targets will come his way soon enough.

We'll finish with one last wide receiver, a position that is just loaded in depth and has some very nice values later in drafts. Eric Decker currently has an ADP of 91, which is pretty amazing for a player who caught 81 passes a year ago for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Elsa/Getty Images

Yes, I know, that was in Denver and with arguably the best quarterback to play the game, but it's not as though leaving Denver suddenly changed the fact that Decker is going to be the top option in the New York Jets passing game or that he's an excellent red-zone target. 

If Geno Smith is merely decent this year, well, Decker should still post solid numbers. And in the event that Michael Vick eventually earns the gig, Decker could be in line for even bigger numbers. In the 10th round of 10-man leagues, you should be absolutely salivating if Decker is still on the board. You can do far worse at your flex spot or WR3 slot than Decker.

Have fantasy questions? Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer them and make some corny jokes, too. It's more fun than having Shaun Hill as your starting quarterback.