Assigning Odds for Every Potential Chicago Bears 1st-Round Pick

The Chicago Bears' first-round draft pick has become hard to predict after a very busy free-agency period in which they rebuilt their defensive line.

The Bears added defensive ends Jared Allen, Willie Young and Lamarr Houston, but remain relatively thin on all levels of the defense. They could continue to add to their defensive line or to their secondary or grab another linebacker early in the draft.

Given general manager Phil Emery's history, there's really no way of knowing exactly what he is thinking. His past and what he has said publicly does give us a few hints, however.

Both Emery's past and some of his most recent comments show the same thing: He wants high-level athletes. He's going to target players who are athletic enough to excel in the league and play multiple positions. 

There have been a number of players projected to the Bears by both the "experts" and quite a few fans. Of course, not everyone has researched Emery's past or heard what he has said about this upcoming draft.

In the following slides, I took the names used in the expert projections I wrote about last week as well as some other names that have been thrown out by fans and applied the odds of the Bears selecting each player.

Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State

Florida State defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan has long been a popular pick to the Bears, but it's one that I really don't see happening.

I went over the various reasons why Jernigan is an unlikely pick last week, but to sum it up: He isn't athletic, is poorly built and wasn't productive in college. His draft stock was way overblown because of the BCS National Championship Game in which he had possibly the best game of his career.

He wasn't a dominant pass-rusher in college and doesn't seem to have the physical traits to be one in the NFL. At the combine, he measured with arms under 32 inches and didn't show speed or quickness. He's also just 6'2" and 299 pounds, on the small side for nose tackles in the NFL.

There are some things to like about Jernigan. He is tough against the run and shows good burst at times. His sack numbers are low, but he did have 25 tackles for loss in college and he won't turn 22 until September.

He could fit with quite a few teams, but I really don't see the Bears being that team.

Odds: 100-1

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama/Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

It's entirely possible that neither of the consensus top-two safeties are the top safeties on the Bears board due to relatively limited athleticism.

At the beginning of the draft process, the common thought was that Alabama's Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was an elite prospect and that Louisville's Calvin Pryor wasn't far behind, but the conventional thinking has changed a bit.

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller ranked Clinton-Dix and Pryor as his top two safeties, with Clinton-Dix being first, but doesn't see either as being elite. Miller gave Clinton-Dix a grade of 91 out of 100, but wrote "he may not be on a level with Earl Thomas or Kenny Vaccaro as a prospect."

Are the Bears going to spend the 14th pick of the first round on a safety that isn't an elite prospect in a deep draft? It doesn't seem likely.

Hurting both of their cases is that neither had particularly strong workouts at the combine. Clinton-Dix ranked ninth and Pryor was 12th in the Ourlads' Scouting Service Combine Rankings, both being average. In Emery's two drafts, he has only selected two players who didn't rank as "above average," both of whom came on Day 3 of the draft.

Emery could see more athletic safeties—such as Northern Illinois' Jimmie Ward—as having higher upside and versatility due to their athleticism.

I don't see either as being particularly likely picks by the Bears, but I'd say Clinton-Dix is slightly more likely because he's better in coverage. The Bears added Ryan Mundy on the first day of free agency, and while Mundy can play either safety spot, he's not a particularly strong coverage safety. If they're planning on him starting, they should pair him with another safety who excels in coverage.

Odds: Clinton-Dix, 25-1; Pryor, 30-1

Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois

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Northern Illinois safety Jimmie Ward has been brought up as a second-round possibility for the Bears, but I'd be shocked if he lasted that long.

Ward has a lot of the qualities that Bears general manager Phil Emery highlighted when he met with reporters prior to the NFL combine.

A foot injury prevented Ward from working out at the combine, but he did put on a show at the NIU pro day. According to NFL Draft Scout, Ward finished with an average 40-yard dash time of 4.48 to go with a vertical jump of 38 inches and a board jump over 10 feet. He tested out far better than the consensus top safeties, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix of Alabama and Calvin Pryor of Louisville did at the combine.

In addition to outstanding athleticism, Ward also showed great coverage skills in both man and zone. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller rated him as the best safety in coverage. In addition to playing deep, he can move up and cover slot receivers, a skill that is extremely important in a division with Randall Cobb and Cordarrelle Patterson.

He also showed tremendous ball skills in college, picking off seven passes last season.

There are some concerns about his strength, as he probably wouldn't be playing in the box much. It's a passing league, however, and if he can come in and cover right away, he will have tremendous value.

His athleticism, ball skills and versatility could have him rated as the best safety in the draft on Emery's board. In fact, I'd be a little surprised if he wasn't.

Odds: 20-1

Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

Ohio State linebacker Ryan Shazier is my ultimate sleeper for the Bears.

The conventional thought is that the Bears need help on their defensive line and in their secondary over linebacker, but I'm not so sure that's true.

Former defensive end Shea McClellin is moving to linebacker, but there's no way of knowing how that will go for sure. Neither Jon Bostic nor Khaseem Greene looked good as rookies, and while they both have potential, is it enough to pass on a player like Shazier?

The only certainty among the Bears linebackers is Lance Briggs, and it's hard to know what to expect from him going forward. Briggs is in the last year of his contract and will turn 34 next season. 

If Bears general manager Phil Emery sees Shazier as an immediate starter and a cornerstone of their defense, it would be hard to pass on him.

Shazier can play in the middle or outside and may be the best athlete in the entire draft. According to CBS Sports, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds with a vertical jump of 42 inches, almost unheard of for a linebacker. 

The primary concern about him is supposed to be a lack of bulk, but he's big enough at 6'1" and 237 pounds, especially given his athletic traits.

With his athletic ability, it's conceivable that he would limit the need for a slot corner, allowing the team that drafts him to stay in their base defense or with bigger personnel far more often. In a division with both Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson, that would be very valuable.

I don't necessarily see Emery giving up on former high draft picks like McClellin and Bostic so soon, but I think it's possible he sees a star in Shazier and can't resist.

Again, he's a sleeper, so I won't put great odds on it, but he is someone worth watching for.

Odds: 25-1

Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

Michigan State's Darqueze Dennard is an interesting prospect for a variety of reasons.

He has a solid combination of size and athleticism and his experience at Michigan State could have him ready to play right away.

Dennard is a physical cornerback, sometimes too physical. While he's not a great athlete, he's good enough and still rated as "above average" on Ourlads' Scouting Service Combine Rankings.

While Dennard rates as solid across the board, he doesn't seem to be exceptional in any category. His scouting report on NFL.com says his ceiling is as a second cornerback, as many feel his upside is limited.

Dennard is athletic enough to play at a high level, but may not be athletic enough to ever be a star. He's also big enough, but doesn't have great size or length either, with arms measuring just over 30 inches long.

If Bears general manager Phil Emery is looking for a safe bet at cornerback, Dennard may be it. I just don't think that is Emery's style, however.

Odds: 35-1

Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State

Ohio State cornerback Bradley Roby seems to be a player many scouts like, but no one seems to love him.

He's got tremendous athleticism, turning in a 40 time of 4.39 at the combine. At 5'11" and 194 pounds, he has good size to go with that athleticism, and that should make him a first-round pick.

Roby's worst game of the season came against Wisconsin when receiver Jared Abbrederis dominated him with 10 catches for 207 yards and a touchdown. That game has been hard to forget for many scouts, who once saw him as a high first-round pick.

Outside of that game, there's a lot to like. Roby is physical and had 41 passes defensed in his career, the most amongst the top cornerback prospects. He also added eight interceptions, two of which he took back for touchdowns.

There are some questions about the level of competition in the Big Ten. Traditionally among the strongest conferences in the country, the Big Ten has dropped off in recent years. There aren't a lot of NFL-quality receivers or quarterbacks in the conference, and the fact that Abbrederis was able to dominate so much brings to question how much of an impact Roby can have.

His learning curve may be more steep than the other cornerbacks in the draft and I'm not sure the Bears are going to want to wait around for him.

Odds: 30-1

Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert has a lot of traits that Bears general manager Phil Emery is looking for, but he may lack one key attribute.

Gilbert is tall (6'0") with long arms (33 1/8") and is a fluid athlete. At the combine, Gilbert registered a 40-yard dash of 4.37 seconds to go with a vertical of 35.5 inches and 20 bench-press reps.

He intercepted seven passes last year, two of which were returned for touchdowns, and had 12 interceptions in his career as a three-year starter.

There's a lot to like, but why might Emery not be enamored? Physicality.

While certainly big and strong enough, Gilbert isn't a particularly willing run defender, as noted by National Football Post. Given his ball skills, that may be fine for most teams, but Emery seems to want physical cornerbacks.

"We need tough, physical players," Emery said before the combine. "Mel (Tucker) has said it to me and I believe it and I know our players believe it, that generally the toughness of your team shows up in your corners."

That doesn't necessarily fit Gilbert, and I'm not sure that kind of tenacity is something that is learned.

Odds: 25-1

Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech cornerback Kyle Fuller seems to have the best combination of traits that the Bears are looking for among the top cornerbacks. 

Fuller is more athletic than Darqueze Dennard of Michigan State, longer than Ohio State's Bradley Roby and more physical than Justin Gilbert of Oklahoma State.

Fuller's biggest question mark is injury, as he missed most of last season and the Senior Bowl with a sports hernia. While that shouldn't linger into next season, NFL executives just don't have as much to go on with him as they do with others.

Fuller performed well at the combine with a 40-yard dash under 4.5 seconds, a vertical of 38.5 inches and a broad jump of 128 inches. That combination was good enough to rank him seventh on Ourlads' Scouting Service Combine Rankings. 

What makes him interesting is the fact that he showed the ability to make plays in the backfield with 23.5 tackles for loss and on passes with 32 passes defensed. The first number is easily the most amongst the top cornerbacks, and the second ties him with Gilbert for second, behind Roby.

Despite a slender built, he can mix it up behind the line of scrimmage and has arms that measure almost 33 inches long. 

There's plenty of reason to believe that he is the top cornerback on Emery's draft board and he's likely to be there at No. 14. The problem is that I'm not sold that the Bears will draft a cornerback in the first round.

The Bears already have Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman penciled in as starters and most of the first-round corners have very limited experience in the slot. It typically takes cornerbacks a year to adjust to the NFL and the Bears want to win now.

This is also a relatively deep cornerback class, so the Bears could get potential future starters later, which could be a particularly attractive option given their current situation with the starters.

If the Bears are going to take a cornerback, my guess is that it's going to be Fuller.

Odds: 20-1

Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh defensive tackle Aaron Donald is the top player on my board, but I don't think the odds that the Bears will pick him are great.

Donald is the top ranked defensive tackle by nearly every scout, as his combination of strength and quickness have allowed him to live in the backfield of his opponents for the last three years. Donald had more sacks (11) and tackles for loss (28.5) than either Timmy Jernigan (8.5 and 25) of Florida State or Minnesota's Ra'Shede Hageman (24 and 10) had in their entire careers.

Donald is small (measuring 6'1" and 285 pounds at the combine) but has tremendous quickness and explosiveness. 

Still, that size leads some to believe he won't be a great run defender in the NFL and may not be versatile. That may scare Bears general manager Phil Emery off. 

It's far more likely, however, that the Bears won't draft Donald because they won't be able to. He was dominant on the field and dominant during the scouting process. The chances that Donald drops to No. 14 don't appear to be great.

Odds: 15-1

Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota

Minnesota defensive tackle Ra'Shede Hageman just seems like the kind of player Bears general manager Phil Emery will like.

I made the case for drafting Hageman earlier this week because of his limitless potential. While Aaron Donald may be the defensive tackle who is the most sure thing, I think Hageman has the potential to be the best player in this entire draft.

There's a lot that scouts don't like about Hageman. He sometimes struggles with leverage, doesn't always appear to play with 100 percent intensity and doesn't use his hands as well as many would like. All of that can be taught, however.

Hageman has tremendous size (6'6", 310 pounds) and length (34-inch arms) to go with incredible athleticism (35.5-inch vertical) and strength. He ranked second (behind Aaron Donald) on the Ourlads' Scouting Service Combine Rankings.

While he may be raw, Hageman possesses the physical skills to contribute right away, and with the right coaching, he could become a star. It's possible that the Bears—and other teams—could have Hageman as the top defensive tackle in the draft because of the versatility his size and athleticism offers.

If I had to put money on it right now, I'd say Hageman will be the Bears' pick, but there are so many other variables. He could be gone when the Bears pick or they could elect to go in another position. 

While I give him the strongest odds, the draft is so unpredictable that I can't give anyone great odds.

Odds: 10-1