Duke vs. Virginia Odds Analysis: ACC Title Game Betting by the Numbers

With an outside shot at the winner of this game getting a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, it’s no wonder the oddsmakers have made this line so tight.

The Virginia Cavaliers finished atop the league standings, yet the Duke Blue Devils are the slight favorite in this rematch from January 13, when Duke scored the four-point home win.

The point spread is tight, the wagering volume is tight and both teams are heavily motivated.

ACC Championship Game point spread

Duke opened as a small, one-point favorite. The over was 128 earlier Sunday. Line updates and matchup report details are here.

Why Duke can cover the spread

The age of this team doesn't matter; players know the pride of playing for an ACC title. Riding a three-game win streak, the Blue Devils will be motivated to punch their ticket, using a recent offensive surge that has seen them average 77 points during their win streak.

Why Virginia can cover the spread

The Cavaliers are good enough to play with any team in the country. After losing the regular-season finale to Maryland in overtime, Virginia knocked off Florida State by double digits and sneaked by Pittsburgh on Saturday to reach the championship game.

Virginia has a statement to make, and though they're headed to the Dance, the Cavs are motivated to get past Duke.

Smart Pick

The Blue Devils are your smart play, as they match up well against the Cavs and can pose problems at both ends of the court.

Duke was mired in a three-game losing streak before beating the Cavaliers in the regular season. It’ll be intriguing to see how Akil Mitchell handles Jabari Parker, as Parker will be out to redeem a poor showing in the first outing, when he had just eight points.

The under has prevailed in eight of 11 meetings between these teams.

Trends

• Virginia is 5-1 against the spread in the past six games vs. Duke.
• Duke is 1-5-1 against the spread in its last seven games.
• The total has gone under in eight of Duke's last 11 games when playing Virginia.

Power Rankings

Duke No. 16, Virginia No. 18, per Odds Shark's NCAA power numbers.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Get the free odds and bet tracker app at Odds Shark.