NFL Free Agency 2014: Who Will Be the 1st Dominoes to Fall?

Own a crystal ball? Have you got a Ouija Board handy? What about your basic coin flip?

NFL free agency begins in less than a handful of days, and the one thing we learn every year is that predictions can be futile.

Resistance can be futile as well, but that’s another line from another movie for another day.

Still, why not take a crack at it?

Yes, there is still time for teams to re-sign their own players who can become unrestricted free agents Mar. 11 at 4 p.m. ET. Which means some of these forecasts could be a moot point sooner than later.

So here is just a smattering of what could happen when the hypothetical bell sounds Tuesday afternoon. Just enough moves to get the ball rolling. So begins months of speculation…and fun.

Thank you to Spotrac (subscription required) for the latest free-agent and salary-cap information.

FS Jairus Byrd (Buffalo Bills) to Eagles

Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers slapped the franchise tags on tight end Jimmy Graham and defensive end Greg Hardy, respectively.

While you could make the case one of those performers was the best player that could have hit the open market, the discussion would have had to include Buffalo Bills free safety Jairus Byrd.

In 2013, the ball-hawking defender was given the franchise tag by the Bills. Byrd would miss the first five games of the season due to injury but was still on the field enough to tie for the team lead with four interceptions.

In five NFL seasons, the three-time Pro Bowler has totaled 22 interceptions and forced 11 fumbles. Those impressive totals would have to appeal to Byrd’s former college coach, Chip Kelly.

As in Chip Kelly of the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that finished 29th in the league in yards allowed and dead last in the NFL in pass defense in 2013. The team used free agency last season to rebuild its secondary, with mixed results.

Eagles Insider Geoff Mosher of CSNPhilly.com reminds us of the Kelly/Bird connection.

And, of course, it is only fitting that Byrd becomes a member of these Birds.

DE Jared Allen (Minnesota Vikings) to Buccaneers

Jim Mone/Associated Press

One-time Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith is now in command of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

When putting his coaching staff together, Smith enlisted the aid of Leslie Frazier. The Bucs' new defensive coordinator is the former head coach of the Minnesota Vikings.

Sounds like a teaming of the Super Friends.

Speaking of teams, both Smith and Frazier have a pair of prominent potential free agents that figure to hit the market Tuesday.

We expect both to become Buccaneers sooner than later next week.

First, look for relentless defensive end Jared Allen to head to Florida. The 10-year veteran spent the last six seasons with the Vikings and totaled an impressive 85.5 sacks in 96 games.

Over the past five seasons, the Buccaneers have totaled just 139 sacks while allowing 141 touchdown passes. With Allen leading the way in the Twin Cities—the last few years under Frazier—the Vikings totaled a combined 135 sacks over the last three seasons.

Case closed.

KR Devin Hester (Chicago Bears) to Buccaneers

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

After eight seasons and an NFL-record combined 18 punt and kickoff returns for touchdowns, Devin Hester will be taking his act elsewhere in 2014.

Will it indeed be in Tampa with Smith, Hester’s old head coach with the Chicago Bears?

“I look at Lovie as my number one coach right now,” Hester said this week, via Rich Campbell of The Chicago Tribune. “Because he’s the one that took a chance on me coming out of the draft. He has all of my respect so if he’s a guy who is going to shoot at me and want me to come play with him again, my arms are open.”

As Campbell documents, the Bears bid adieu to Hester and any chances of re-signing the potential free-agent Thursday, and general manager Phil Emery had nothing but positives when it came to the prolific return artist.

So what about Hester heading to Tampa? The Buccaneers have not had a player return a kickoff for a touchdown since 2010.

But consider this number: In eight seasons, Hester has taken back 13 punts and five kickoffs for scores in the regular season. In 38 years of existence, the Bucs have returned 11 punts and four kickoffs for scores.

Enough said.

DE Justin Tuck (New York Giants) to Falcons

Mel Evans/Associated Press

This past offseason, the Atlanta Falcons cut defensive end John Abraham and eventually signed former New York Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora to fill his vacancy.

Now, the Falcons are asking the former Pro Bowler to take a pay cut.

As tweeted by Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports and documented by Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com, the Falcons would like the veteran defender to reduce his salary in 2014.

This past season, Umenyiora totaled 47 tackles and a team-high 7.5 sacks. The 11-year pro (who missed the 2008 season with the Giants) also returned an interception for a touchdown, knocked down three passes and forced three fumbles.

But here’s the bottom line: Only four teams gave up more total yards than the Falcons, which also allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league. The Falcons totaled just 32 sacks in 2013, giving them 61 sacks in their last 32 regular-season games.

This past season, the divisional-rival Carolina Panthers totaled an NFL-high 60 sacks, and the New Orleans Saints rang up 49 sacks.

It remains to be seen if Umenyiora will agree on a new contract. One way or another, the Falcons could bring in former teammate Justin Tuck (11 sacks in 2013) to either replace him or perhaps team with.

CB Alterraun Verner (Tennessee Titans) to Raiders

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

At the moment, no team has more money to spend than the Oakland Raiders.

And as we saw a year ago, general manager Reggie McKenzie had no problem spending some on the defensive side of the football.

From defensive end Jason Hunter to defensive tackle Pat Sims to cornerbacks Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins and safety Charles Woodson, the Raiders were a busy team last spring and summer.

However, the reason we listed the players that we listed is that they were all signed to one-year deals and are now about to hit the free-agent market again.

This time around, look for the Silver and Black to make a little more of a long-term investment.

Cornerback Alterraun Verner enjoyed a career year in 2013 and was named to his first Pro Bowl. He totaled five interceptions and seven of the Tennessee Titans’ 25 takeaways this past season.

Meanwhile, the Raiders intercepted just nine passes in 2013, the second-lowest total in the league, and they forced only 22 turnovers in 16 games.

With the Raiders adding Verner, the fun should begin with some of the other top cornerbacks on the market.

So where will Sam Shields (Green Bay Packers), Aqib Talib (New England Patriots) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Denver Broncos) each be heading?

We shall see.

DT Linval Joseph (New York Giants) to Vikings

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Over the next two seasons, the Minnesota Vikings will call the University of Minnesota home.

That’s quite a change for a team that has played its home games indoors dating back to 1982.

But that move may pale in comparison to what we will see on the field from the team in 2014, especially when it comes to the defensive line.

We have already decided that the veteran Allen won’t be returning to the Twin Cities. Defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Fred Evans and defensive end Everson Griffen are also expected to hit the free-agent market. The Vikings also just released defensive tackle Letroy Guion, via Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk.

With money to spend, the Vikings will splurge on defensive tackle Linval Joseph, a four-year pro who has been a starter each of the last three seasons for New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin.

New Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer helped turn Geno Atkins into a two-time Pro Bowler and one of the best defensive tackles in the league. Teaming Joseph up front with second-year pro Sharrif Floyd and surrounding him with the likes of defensive end Brian Robison (and possibly Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Michael Johnson?) could do wonders for the team that gave up the most points in the league in 2013.