Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings: Breaking Down Biggest Surprises in Top 10

At several positions, this is an odd week of fantasy football. At quarterback, several top options have brutal matchups. At running back, the elite herd thins out quickly. At wide receiver, several surprising options should emerge among the week's top performers. 

It can be difficult to know when to trust a player's ability over a tough matchup—or when to ignore trends and take a chance on a player—but I'm here to help. I'll take a look at some of the biggest surprises set to crash the top-10 rankings at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.

Notes: Points against stats via ESPN. Point totals are for standard-scoring leagues. The St. Louis Rams and Dallas Cowboys are on a bye. 

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Robert Griffin III	Washington	Philadelphia Eagles	28
2	Nick Foles	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington	25
3	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	New England Patriots	24
4	Matt Stafford	Detroit Lions	Pittsburgh Steelers	22
5	Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	San Francisco 49ers	21
6	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	20
7	Russell Wilson	Seattle Seahawks	Minnesota Vikings	18
8	Andy Dalton	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	17
9	Case Keenum	Houston Texans	Oakland Raiders	17
10	Matt Ryan	Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16

Nick Foles ahead of Matt Stafford, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning? Andy Dalton, Case Keenum and Matt Ryan rounding out the top 10?

Yes, there are some surprises in the top 10.

Foles has thrown for 10 touchdowns and registered 67 fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues in the past two weeks. He's scored 22 or more fantasy points in three of his four starts and faces a Washington defense allowing 18.2 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per week, 26th in the NFL. 

So yes, Foles earns his No. 2 ranking this week, especially since Stafford takes on the Pittsburgh Steelers (fourth in pass defense), Brees faces the San Francisco 49ers (eighth in pass defense), Manning gets the Kansas City Chiefs (sixth in pass defense) and Cam Newton faces the New England Patriots (12th in pass defense).

Dalton and Ryan have been inconsistent in recent weeks, but both have solid matchups. Besides, with Colin Kaepernick playing poorly, Tom Brady facing a brutal matchup against the Carolina Panthers, Aaron Rodgers hurt and Tony Romo on a bye, the pickings are pretty slim at the position. 

That also opens up the door for Case Keenum, who has registered an impressive 60 fantasy points in his three starts and now faces an Oakland Raiders team giving up 18.1 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per week, 24th in the NFL.

Don't be afraid to get creative at quarterback this week. 

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	LeSean McCoy	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington	22
2	Marshawn Lynch	Seattle Seahawks	Minnesota Vikings	21
3	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	19
4	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	18
5	Frank Gore	San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	17
6	Reggie Bush	Detroit Lions	Pittsburgh Steelers	17
7	Alfred Morris	Washington	Philadelphia Eagles	16
8	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears	Baltimore Ravens	15
9	Giovani Bernard	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	14
10	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	13

To be honest, there aren't any major surprises on this list. All of the players included have been quite good this year.

No, the surprises come when you start looking at which players were left off. Stevan Ridley has posted four straight weeks with double-digit fantasy points, but he faces a Panthers team giving up just 11.9 fantasy points to opposing running backs per week, fifth in the NFL.

Knowshon Moreno is averaging 14.4 fantasy points per week, but he faces a Chiefs defense giving up just 12.3 fantasy points to opposing running backs per week, sixth in the NFL.

And then there is Chris Johnson facing an Indianapolis Colts defense that gives up just 13 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs, ninth in the NFL.  

So no, there aren't many surprises in the top 10. But good luck getting much production from your RB2 this week. 

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	Pittsburgh Steelers	23
2	DeSean Jackson	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington	20
3	Brandon Marshall	Chicago Bears	Baltimore Ravens	19
4	Josh Gordon	Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	18
5	Vincent Jackson	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	16
6	Demaryius Thomas	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	15
7	Andre Johnson	Houston Texans	Oakland Raiders	14
8	Pierre Garcon	Washington	Philadelphia Eagles	14
9	Larry Fitzgerald	Arizona Cardinals	Jacksonville Jaguars	13
10	Antonio Brown	Pittsburgh Steelers	Detroit Lions	13

Without question, the biggest surprises come at the wide receiver position. No A.J. Green in the top 10? Pierre Garcon, Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Brown all earning WR1 designations this week?

Let's get into it.

I broke down in further detail here why I think A.J. Green has limited upside this week, and it's due to a tough matchup against Cleveland Browns cornerback Joe Haden. You should still be starting Green, but don't expect a huge performance. 

Garcon faces a Philadelphia Eagles defense that gives up 29.6 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers per week, worst in the NFL, and he had seven receptions for 64 yards against it in the first meeting, so he's a great start. 

Fitzgerald has been the picture of inconsistency thus far—though we can chalk that up to the play of Carson Palmer, not Fitz himself—but he faces a Jacksonville Jaguars team he should torch. Yes, Jacksonville has been better against the pass than the run, but the Jags don't have anyone capable of slowing down Fitzgerald. 

Finally, Antonio Brown has scored double-digit fantasy points the past two weeks and has seven or more points in seven games this season. The Detroit Lions give up 27.4 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers per game, 30th in the NFL, so Brown will get his. 

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Jimmy Graham	New Orleans Saints	San Francisco 49ers	17
2	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots	Carolina Panthers	17
3	Jordan Cameron	Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	15
4	Vernon Davis*	San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	14
5	Jordan Reed	Washington	Philadelphia Eagles	13
6	Tony Gonzalez	Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13
7	Julius Thomas	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	11
8	Antonio Gates	San Diego Chargers	Miami Dolphins	10
9	Timothy Wright	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	9
10	Greg Olsen	Carolina Panthers	New England Patriots	9

The pickings are so slim at tight end, there really aren't any surprises here.

Perhaps people will be wary of starting Julius Thomas against a Kansas City defense that has given up just 2.9 fantasy points to opposing tight ends per week, best in the NFL, but are you really going to sit him for an inferior option like Rob Housler or John Carlson?

Me neither. For now, stick with your studs. 

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions, tweet random fantasy musings and wonder how the New Orleans Saints could earn almost as many first downs (40) on Sunday night as the Dallas Cowboys ran plays (43).