A Preview of the 2009 San Francisco 49ers' Rushing Attack

The 49er offense will look different in 2009 under new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye. Frank Gore has already commented, regarding the “running downhill” style of the Raye offense versus the “finesse” technique of last year’s Mike Martz-run offense.

If both Frank Gore and Glen Coffee stay healthy, what might the club’s rushing statistics look like in 2009?

Let’s start with the notion that the team likely will average 30 snaps per game to run the ball. That would constitute 48 percent of the total 62 offensive snaps. This seems to be quite reasonable, based on the following analysis.

The 2008 offense averaged 60 total snaps per game, based on 29-plus minutes of possession per game. Over Jimmy Raye’s 12 years as an offensive coordinator, his offenses have averaged 58 snaps per game, with a low of 52 and a high of 64.

The 2008 offense was 47 percent run, 53 percent pass. Raye’s offenses have averaged 48 percent run, 52 percent pass, with a run percentage as low as 38 percent and as high as 61 percent.

So, how will those 30 carries per game likely be distributed? Frank Gore has been targeted for about 23 touches per game. Let’s give him 18 carries and five pass attempts. Throw in five QB scrambles and specialty run calls, like an end-around or a Wildcat call for Michael Robinson, and that leaves about seven carries per game for Glen Coffee.

A good many of Coffee’s carries are likely to be in the second half, when Gore needs a blow, and when the team is trying to protect a lead by running clock.

Let’s give a healthy Frank Gore an average of 4.5 yards per carry (he averaged a career-low 4.3 yards per carry in 2008), and he is likely to deliver 81 yards rushing per game—almost 1,300 yards for the year.

Let’s give Coffee a more modest 3.8 yards per carry average, since his carries will likely be when the defense is fully expecting a run. Coffee’s rushing stats would then look something like 27 yards per game, or about 425 yards for the season. 

How many rushing touchdowns are likely? The club’s short-yardage offense has been lacking in recent years. The wild card here is Marvel Smith at right tackle. If No. 71 can be a durable and effective run blocker, perhaps the yards per carry for both Gore and Coffee can exceed the above forecast, and the short yardage/goal line offense can be more effective. This factor remains to be determined.