NFL Odds Week 3: Spreads That Will Be Covered by Undervalued Teams
The NFL season is only a few weeks old. When it comes to picking games, that means a vast majority of the teams are still establishing where they belong among the different echelons of squads, and a couple are always going to get overlooked.
So the key is identifying which teams are being undervalued. Most teams will solidify where they stand by the middle of the season, at which point picking becomes more about individual matchups. But there's still a window right now where certain sides aren't getting enough respect.
With that in mind, let's examine three teams that should cover the spread with relative ease on Sunday. All odds for Week 3 are courtesy of Vegas Insider.
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New England Patriots (-7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The 2-0 Patriots are at home for a matchup with the 0-2 Bucs. In years past, when New England was viewed as a definite title contender, the spread would have likely been at least a touchdown higher. Instead, it's only a single score.
Although the Patriots weren't overly convincing in wins over the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, they found a way to win two key division games. And since the Jets game was last Thursday, Tom Brady and Co. have had 10 days to prepare for the Bucs.
This is a statement game for New England. The spread shows confidence in the Patriots' ability to reach those previous heights is quickly fading. Yet, at the end of the day, it's a home game against a lackluster Tampa Bay squad with a struggling Josh Freeman under center. Pats win big.
Prediction: Patriots by 17
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5 at Miami Dolphins)
Aside from playing on the road, this is a perfect matchup for the Falcons. Steven Jackson is out with a thigh injury, which means the Falcons should lean more heavily on their star-studded passing attack against an average Dolphins secondary.
Defensively, Atlanta's biggest weakness has been stopping the pass. It's not a weakness Miami will be able to take full advantage of, however, because Ryan Tannehill doesn't have enough big-play weapons at his disposal quite yet.
So while getting points is a nice buffer to have in what should be a closer game overall, the Falcons should be able to leave Miami with an outright victory. Expect another monster game from Julio Jones and a very strong showing from Tony Gonzalez.
Prediction: Falcons by four
Buffalo Bills (+2.5 at New York Jets)
Both of these teams are still a couple years away from being legitimately competitive in the AFC. That said, the Bills have shown more promise in the early going because they have more talent around EJ Manuel than the Jets do for Geno Smith.
The two-headed running back duo of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson takes a lot of pressure off Buffalo's rookie quarterback. Add in a top target like Stevie Johnson, who doesn't have elite speed but can get open seemingly at will, and the Bills offense is trending in the right direction.
Buffalo's defensive line, led by Mario Williams, should be able to get enough pressure on Smith to force him into a couple mistakes. That's all it will take for Manuel, Spiller and Co. to score a narrow road victory against a division rival.
Prediction: Bills by three
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